Market evolution: Small petrol cars (CN 870321) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union for passenger vehicles with spark-ignition engines of 1.0 litre or less (customs code 870321) over the 2015-2025 period. The data reveals a dramatic transformation in the EU's trading position for this segment, characterized by surging imports, shifting partnerships, and significant internal specialization. The period saw the EU evolve from a modest net exporter to a substantial net importer, reflecting broader structural shifts in the regional automotive industry.

1. A Structural Shift from Net Exporter to Net Importer

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade balance for small petrol cars underwent a fundamental reversal. The region moved from a position of self-sufficiency and net exportation to one of significant import reliance, driven by the explosive growth of inbound shipments.

Import Value Surged While Export Growth Was Muted

Import value increased by 336.7%, from EUR 1.93 billion in 2015 to EUR 8.45 billion in 2025. In contrast, export value grew by a more modest 43.0%, reaching EUR 5.22 billion in 2025. This divergence caused the trade balance to swing from a surplus of EUR 1.71 billion in 2015 to a deficit of EUR 3.23 billion in 2025. The deficit peaked at EUR 3.65 billion in 2023 before recovering slightly General Overview.

The Price and Volume Dynamics Behind the Shift

The import surge was fuelled by both higher volumes and rising prices. The quantity of imports (in net mass) grew by 175.8%, while the unit price per tonne rose by 58.3%. This indicates not just more cars being imported, but also a trend towards more expensive models. The number of vehicle units imported (supplementary quantity) grew by 134.9%, from 329,363 to 773,617 pieces. Conversely, the number of EU-made vehicles exported fell by 6.4%, from 381,723 to 357,416 units, even as their average value per unit increased by 52.7%. This suggests a strategic shift towards exporting higher-value vehicles General Overview.

2. The Reshaping of Global Partnerships

The geographical composition of the EU's trade in this segment was redrawn, with Morocco and Türkiye emerging as dominant suppliers, while the UK remained the primary export destination.

New Import Leaders: Morocco and Türkiye's Ascendancy

Morocco and Türkiye transformed from minor suppliers into the EU's two largest sources of imports by value. Imports from Morocco skyrocketed by 814.9%, from EUR 333 million to EUR 3.05 billion. Imports from Türkiye saw an even more dramatic 387.1% increase, reaching EUR 2.46 billion in 2025. These two countries alone accounted for the majority of the increase in import value. The United Kingdom, post-Brexit, also became a significant supplier, with imports surging by 1,893.8% to EUR 611 million General Overview.

Export Markets: Stability with the UK and Growth in Türkiye

The United Kingdom remained the EU's primary export market, with value growing a modest 3.6% to EUR 2.59 billion. The most notable growth in exports was to Türkiye, which saw a staggering 2,892.4% increase, making it the second-largest market by 2025. This points to the integrated automotive production networks between the EU and these neighbouring countries General Overview.

3. Intra-EU Specialization and a Changing Production Landscape

Behind the headline trade figures, the internal structure of the EU's automotive production for this segment underwent significant consolidation and specialization.

Production Volumes Declined Despite Rising Values

EU-wide production of these vehicles (in units) fell by 8.0%, from 4.35 million to an estimated 4.0 million pieces. However, the total production value increased by 66.9%, from EUR 33.6 billion to EUR 56.0 billion. This stark contrast indicates a strong trend of product premiumization and a shift in the product mix towards more expensive models within the same customs category Market Structure.

A Core of Specialised Exporters Emerged

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a distinct core of EU members highly focused on exporting this vehicle segment. Romania, Slovenia, Czechia, and Spain exhibit high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating they are net exporters with a strong specialization. Conversely, countries like Germany, a traditional automotive powerhouse, saw its export value for this specific segment plummet by 81.3%, suggesting a strategic exit from small-engine production in favour of higher-margin vehicles or electric models Market Structure.

Conclusion

The decade to 2025 marked a structural realignment for the EU's trade in small petrol cars (CN 870321). The EU's role shifted from that of a net exporter to a major net importer, primarily sourced from Morocco and Türkiye. This was not merely a story of demand but of supply-side reorganisation: intra-EU production volumes decreased while value increased, and export specialization concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe. These trends likely reflect the combined pressures of evolving consumer preferences, the transition towards electrification—which may have dampened local investment in small-displacement ICE engines—and the strategic optimization of production networks across the broader European and Mediterranean region.