Market evolution: Small petrol cars (CN 87032210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of new passenger vehicles with spark-ignition engines between 1.0 and 1.5 liters cylinder capacity (Customs Code 87032210) for the European Union from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on the EU's trade with non-EU countries, examining overall trends, structural shifts in trade partners, and key economic indicators to interpret the market's evolution over the decade. The full data for this analysis is available here.

1. A Resilient Surplus Built on Shifting Volumes and Rising Values

The EU has maintained a consistent trade surplus in this vehicle segment throughout the period, but the nature of that surplus has transformed significantly. While the monetary value of exports has grown modestly, the underlying physical trade volume has contracted sharply, indicating a fundamental shift in the composition of trade towards higher-value products.

1.1. The EU's trade surplus is strengthening in monetary terms but is volume-constrained.

The overall trade balance in value terms increased by 10.8% from the start to the end of the period, reaching approximately €9.7 billion in 2025. However, this growth masks a dramatic decline in the physical quantity traded. Export volumes, measured in net tonnes, fell by 25.6%, and the number of exported vehicles (supplementary quantity) dropped by 36.5% over the same timeframe.

1.2. Unit export prices have surged, indicating a shift towards premium products.

The most telling trend is the evolution of unit prices. The average value per tonne of EU exports rose by 37.9%, while the average price per vehicle exported (supp_price) soared by 61.5%. This price inflation outpaced that of imports, where the per-vehicle price increased by 46.2%. This suggests that the EU is exporting fewer but more expensive small petrol cars, likely reflecting a shift towards higher-end models, improved specifications, or inflation within the segment.

(Source: General Overview)

2. Reorientation of Trade Flows: The Rise of Türkiye and the China Phenomenon

The geographic pattern of trade has undergone a major reorientation. Traditional partners have seen fluctuating fortunes, while two narratives stand out: the explosive growth of EU exports to Türkiye and the equally dramatic rise of China as an import supplier, fundamentally altering the EU's trade landscape for this product.

2.1. Türkiye has emerged as the dominant growth market for EU exports.

The most significant shift in EU export destinations has been the meteoric rise of Türkiye. Its share of EU exports exploded from €1.2 billion in 2015 to €4.3 billion in 2025, a growth of 258.8%. This made it the second-largest export partner by value, surpassing Japan and Switzerland. Conversely, exports to the UK, the largest partner, remained relatively stable in value but saw a notable decline in the number of vehicles shipped.

2.2. China has transformed from a minor supplier to a major import source.

On the import side, the story is China's unprecedented growth. Import values from China skyrocketed by an extraordinary 26,252.6% over the decade, from a negligible €4.2 million to over €1.1 billion, making it a top-seven supplier by 2025. This surge likely reflects the entry of competitively priced Chinese vehicles (including electric models with small-range-extendors) into the EU market. Other traditional import partners like the UK, Türkiye, and Mexico saw declines in their share.

(Source: Top Partners by Value)

3. Industrial Specialization and Increasing Concentration in Key EU Member States

Within the EU, production and trade are highly concentrated among a few member states. The data reveals a growing specialization in production among Central and Eastern European countries, while the export market is becoming more reliant on a narrower group of dominant players, increasing structural concentration.

2.3. Production is increasingly specialized in newer EU member states.

Analysis of production specialization for 2025 shows that Slovakia, Portugal, Romania, and Czechia have the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in producing this vehicle segment. This indicates these economies are more specialized in manufacturing small petrol cars for export than the EU average. In contrast, large economies like Sweden, Austria, and the Netherlands show low specialization.

2.4. Export flows are increasingly concentrated, while import sources are diversifying.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, shows a divergence. For EU exports, the HHI by value increased by 8.5%, meaning export markets are becoming more reliant on a few partners (notably the UK and Türkiye). For imports, the HHI decreased by 4.7%, indicating a slight diversification of supply sources, influenced by the rise of China alongside traditional partners.

2.5. German dominance in exports is being complemented by growth in Czechia and Hungary.

Looking at EU reporters, Germany remains the overwhelmingly dominant exporter, accounting for over 45% of exports by value with stable growth. The most dynamic growth, however, came from Czechia (+106.2%) and Hungary (+285.8%). On the import side, Germany and Belgium saw reduced inflows, while Italy and Spain increased their imports, possibly reflecting supply chain shifts or re-exports.

Conclusion

The EU trade market for small petrol cars (CN 87032210) from 2015 to 2025 is characterized by a profound premiumization and geographical reorientation. The EU maintains a strong and growing monetary surplus, but this is achieved by exporting fewer, higher-value vehicles—primarily to a booming Turkish market—while importing more from a rapidly ascendant China. Internally, production is increasingly specialized in Central and Eastern Europe, and export flows are becoming more concentrated on a handful of key partners. The key story of the period is thus not one of volume growth, but of strategic adaptation, with the EU automotive sector focusing on higher-value segments while facing new competitive pressures on the import side.