Market evolution: Used petrol cars (CN 87032290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in used petrol vehicles with engine displacement between 1,000 cm³ and 1,500 cm³ (customs code CN 87032290) over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses used small-engine petrol passenger cars — a segment that straddles the mass market for affordable mobility and the growing second-hand export channel from the EU to neighbouring and developing economies. Over the decade, the EU's trade in this category expanded dramatically: export values nearly tripled while import values more than quadrupled, reflecting both structural demand shifts and price inflation. The following sections dissect the main dynamics underpinning these trends.

I. Robust Growth in Trade Flows Sustained by Rising Unit Values

Export values nearly tripled while volumes rose at half that pace

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 87032290 grew from €209.5 million to €599.7 million (+186.2%). In volume terms, exported mass rose from 68,381 tonnes to 116,387 tonnes (+70.2%), while the count of exported vehicles increased from 60,132 to 102,960 units (+71.2%). The near-identical growth rates of mass and supplementary-unit counts indicate that the average weight per exported vehicle was broadly stable over the period.

The fact that value grew at roughly 2.6× the rate of volume signals a significant appreciation of used-car unit values. The price per tonne for exports rose from €3,064 to €5,152 (+68.2%), while the price per vehicle climbed from €3,484 to €5,824 (+67.2%). This reflected a combination of general used-car price inflation — notably acute during 2021–2023 due to post-COVID supply constraints and semiconductor shortages — and a possible shift toward newer or better-equipped used vehicles in the export mix.

Imports grew even faster, but the EU remained a net exporter

On the import side, the expansion was even more dramatic: import values surged from €90.2 million to €371.2 million (+311.6%). Imported mass more than tripled (25,178 → 69,734 tonnes, +177.0%) and vehicle counts rose from 25,693 to 58,525 units (+127.8%). Crucially, mass grew faster than vehicle count, implying that the average weight per imported vehicle rose from approximately 0.98 tonnes in 2015 to 1.19 tonnes in 2025 — a shift toward heavier models within this displacement bracket.

Despite the faster growth of imports, the EU's trade balance in this product remained positive throughout, rising from €119.3 million (2015) to €228.4 million (2025), a gain of 91.4%. However, the balance collapsed to a minimum of €2.6 million at one point during the period — most likely in 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns severely disrupted exports while certain import channels persisted. The subsequent recovery to the decade's maximum of €276.5 million confirms the resilience of the EU as a net exporter of used small-engine petrol cars.

II. Japan's Dominance on the Import Side and the Rise of New Supplier Economies

Japan became the overwhelmingly dominant supplier of used petrol cars to the EU

The single most striking geographical shift in EU imports over the decade was Japan's ascent to near-total dominance. Japanese exports to the EU of this product surged from €50.5 million in 2015 to €274.8 million in 2025 (+443.6%), making Japan by far the largest single source. This likely reflects Japan's historically large domestic fleet of small-displacement vehicles, its rigorous shaken inspection regime that effectively retires cars after relatively few years, and well-established used-car export networks.

China and Türkiye emerged as significant new suppliers

While Japan consolidated its lead, two suppliers that were negligible in 2015 grew rapidly to reach meaningful volumes by 2025. China's exports to the EU in this category rose from just €21,000 to €21.4 million — an increase of nearly 100,000% — and Turkish exports rose from €135,000 to €10.3 million (+7,524%). These dramatic percentage increases reflect very low starting bases, but the absolute values reached by 2025 are significant. Emerging Turkish second-hand markets and the growing integration of China into global vehicle trade likely explain these trajectories.

The UK's role stalled post-Brexit

The United Kingdom, which became an "extra-EU" partner after Brexit at the start of 2021, grew only modestly as an import source (+13.7% overall), with its peak value of €59.0 million occurring at some point mid-period. Its relatively flat trajectory may reflect the regulatory and customs frictions introduced by the UK's departure from the single market, combined with continued strong domestic demand for used small-engine cars in the UK itself.

Import concentration increased, reflecting Japan's growing share

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 4,475 to 5,763 (+28.8%). An HHI above 2,500 is typically considered highly concentrated; the current level well exceeds that threshold, underscoring Japan's dominance and the EU's heavy dependence on a single supplier for used cars in this displacement class. The import HHI by volume followed a similar pattern, rising from 4,432 to 5,243 (+18.3%).

On the export side, the HHI was far lower (from 823 to 1,448 by value, +76.0%), indicating more diversified outward flows — though the increase reveals growing concentration toward a handful of top destinations.

III. EU Exporters Capitalise on Neighbouring and Emerging Markets

Eastern European and African destinations drove export growth

The most dynamic export destinations were predominantly in Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa:

Belarus stands out with a nearly tenfold increase, rising from €9.6 million to €104.6 million — an increase of 991.3%. This surge suggests Belarus positioned itself as a major re-distribution hub for European used cars, potentially channelling vehicles further east into Russia and Central Asia. Serbia's and Ukraine's growth (+207.8% and +239.5% respectively) reflects broader economic convergence among EU candidate and associated countries, where demand for affordable used vehicles is structurally strong.

Switzerland, the EU's single largest export market for this product by value, grew from €38.5 million to €93.2 million (+142.4%), consistent with its geographic proximity, high wages, and demand for well-maintained second-hand vehicles.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, Cameroon posted steady growth (+43.7%), while Nigeria bucked the trend with a decline of −53.6%, possibly reflecting currency crises and import restrictions. Across African destinations, volatility was high, with coefficient-of-variation scores exceeding 0.9 for Libya (0.94) and 1.7 for Algeria.

Germany, France, and Poland emerged as the EU's leading exporters

Within the EU, the top exporting members were:

Germany's role as the EU's automotive powerhouse translated into the largest absolute export value at €178.5 million in 2025. France's export growth was extraordinary — from €13.0 million to €133.8 million (+930.5%) — suggesting French dealers and platforms became very active in cross-border used-car sales to non-EU markets. Poland's export rise from €4.4 million to €50.5 million (+1,051.0%) was similarly dramatic, likely reflecting its geographic position as a gateway to Eastern Europe. Spain, by contrast, saw its exports decline by 38.7%, potentially due to strong domestic demand for used cars keeping supply at home.

Ireland and Spain became the EU's largest importers by value

On the import side by EU member, Ireland's imports surged from €15.6 million to €150.0 million (+861.5%), making it the EU's single largest importer of this product. This is striking for a small economy and may reflect Ireland's role as a logistical entry point for right-hand-drive Japanese vehicles routed through the UK or direct shipping channels. Cyprus also ranked highly at €115.8 million (+276.6%), consistent with its strong cultural and commercial links to right-hand-drive markets. Spain's imports grew from just €1.9 million to €25.7 million (+1,268.4%), signalling rapidly rising domestic demand for imported used small-engine cars.

Specialisation patterns reveal structural roles within the EU

The revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 shows that small EU member states like Luxembourg (RSCA: 0.72) and Croatia (0.68) have the highest relative specialisation in exporting this category, though their share of total EU exports remains small. At the other end of the spectrum, Portugal (RSCA: −0.96), Greece (−0.95), and Finland (−0.91) are the least specialised, with negligible export shares relative to their overall trade. Notably, Poland's low RSCA (−0.78) despite its large export value indicates that used-car exports represent only a small portion of Poland's total trade basket, even though the country has become a major hub in absolute terms.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in used petrol cars with 1,000–1,500 cm³ engines expanded enormously in both directions, driven by a combination of growing global demand for affordable mobility and a structural increase in used-car unit values. The EU remained a consistent net exporter throughout, with its trade surplus widening to €228.4 million by 2025, though import growth (+312% by value) outpaced export growth (+186%).

Three defining dynamics emerge: first, the near-total dominance of Japan as a supplier to the EU, which drove import concentration to very high levels (HHI of 5,763); second, a dramatic eastern reorientation of EU exports toward Belarus, Serbia, and Ukraine, alongside stable flows to Switzerland; and third, a marked concentration of export activity in Germany, France, and Poland, whose combined share of EU exports grew substantially over the period.

Looking forward, several factors will shape this market. The EU's tightening CO₂ regulations and growing electric-vehicle adoption are likely to increase the supply of used petrol cars available for export while simultaneously reducing domestic demand. Regulatory changes in key destination markets — particularly potential restrictions on used-car imports in Africa and evolving sanctions regimes affecting Belarus — will be critical variables. Price inflation, which amplified the value growth observed in this analysis, may moderate as semiconductor shortages normalise, though the underlying structural demand for affordable used vehicles in developing economies is unlikely to diminish.