Market evolution: Copper bars rods and profiles (CN 7407) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in copper bars, rods, and profiles (Combined Nomenclature code 7407) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses three sub-segments: refined copper articles (740710), brass products (740721), and other copper alloy products (740729). The EU has consistently maintained a significant trade surplus in this product group throughout the decade, with exports roughly four to five times larger than imports by value. The period examined was marked by several transformative dynamics: a structural rise in commodity prices, the disruption of traditional supply chains following geopolitical events, and a notable reorientation of both import sources and export destinations. As detailed in the general overview, the EU's export value grew by 75% to reach €1.37 billion in 2025, while imports more than doubled to €372 million, reflecting both price inflation and shifting demand patterns.

1. Price-led value growth outpaces underlying volume trends

A central feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between value and volume trajectories. While trade values surged across both exports and imports, the underlying physical quantities grew far more modestly, indicating that price appreciation—driven by global copper market dynamics—was the dominant factor behind headline growth.

Export value growth was almost entirely driven by unit prices

EU exports of CN 7407 products rose from €784 million in 2015 to €1.37 billion in 2025, an increase of 75.0%. However, export volumes barely moved: they started at 137,018 tonnes and ended at 144,581 tonnes, a gain of only 5.5%. The unit export price, in contrast, climbed from €5,720 per tonne to €9,477 per tonne (+65.7%), accounting for the overwhelming majority of the value increase. This pattern is consistent with the broader copper price cycle, which saw London Metal Exchange prices rise sharply from 2020 onwards.

Source: General overview — trade

Import growth combined both volume expansion and price inflation

Imports displayed a more balanced growth pattern. The import bill grew by 130.2% (from €161 million to €372 million), with volumes rising 43.3% (from 24,121 to 34,568 tonnes) and unit prices climbing 60.6% (from €6,692 to €10,748 per tonne). Notably, import prices were consistently higher than export prices throughout the period, reflecting the EU's tendency to import higher-value-added products—particularly from the other copper alloys category (740729), which commanded prices above €17,000 per tonne by 2025.

Source: General overview — trade

EU production volumes contracted sharply while values held steady

EU domestic production of CN 7407 products declined by 35.9% in volume terms—from 1.41 billion kg in 2015 to 903 million kg in 2025. Yet production value actually edged up by 5.6% to €4.25 billion, implying a substantial increase in average production values per unit. This suggests that EU producers shifted toward higher-value products or that the price environment compensated for volume losses.

Source: Production volumes

2. Geopolitical shocks and supply diversification reshape trade partnerships

The decade witnessed a dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's trade partners for copper semi-finished products, driven by geopolitical events—most notably the sanctions regime against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine—and a broader push toward supply chain diversification.

Russia's near-total displacement from EU import markets

The most striking partner-level development was the collapse of Russian exports to the EU. Imports from Russia fell from €11.6 million in 2015 to just €314 in 2025, a decline of effectively 100%. The sharpest drop occurred between 2021 and 2022, coinciding with the imposition of EU sanctions. Russia had been a moderately important supplier, and its removal created space that was filled by other sources.

Ukraine emerged as a major replacement supplier

Ukrainian exports to the EU surged by 853.3% over the decade, rising from €1.7 million to €16.7 million. This dramatic increase likely reflects a combination of Ukraine's closer integration with the EU market, the redirection of trade flows away from Russia, and possibly the re-routing of some Russian-origin material through Ukrainian intermediaries in earlier years. Ukraine's trade was also notably volatile, with a coefficient of variation of 0.63, the second-highest among top import partners.

Source: Top partners

Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's top import source

Türkiye became the dominant non-EU supplier, with imports growing by 163.7% to €119.5 million. Its share and reliability (low volatility with a coefficient of variation of 0.24) made it a stable anchor for the EU's import needs. Chinese imports, meanwhile, grew even faster in percentage terms (+281.8%), reaching €57.7 million by 2025, though from a lower base and with considerably higher volatility (CV of 0.45).

Export destinations diversified, with the US and Israel gaining share

On the export side, the United States emerged as the fastest-growing major destination, with EU exports surging 136.5% to €271 million. Israel showed the highest percentage growth at 489.6%, rising from €8.1 million to €47.7 million. Tunisia remained the single largest destination throughout, growing by 89.8% to €353 million. The United Kingdom, despite Brexit, remained a key partner at €261 million, though its growth (+49.5%) lagged the overall export average.

Source: Top partners

3. Internal EU specialisation deepens as trade intensity rises

While the EU as a whole strengthened its position as a net exporter, significant divergences emerged among Member States in terms of specialisation, production focus, and the degree to which their economies became intertwined with external trade flows.

The EU's net export surplus widened substantially

The EU's trade balance in CN 7407 products grew from €622 million in 2015 to over €1.0 billion in 2025, a gain of 60.7%. Net import reliance deepened from −9.8% to −32.1%, meaning the EU's export surplus relative to domestic demand more than tripled. Simultaneously, export propensity (exports as a share of production) jumped from 14.9% to 31.3%, and trade intensity (total trade relative to production) rose from 19.7% to 35.9%. These figures indicate that the EU's copper semi-finished products industry became significantly more export-oriented over the decade.

Source: Net import reliance

Bulgaria and Italy are the most specialised producers within the EU

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Bulgaria has by far the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 18.32, normalised RCA of 0.90), accounting for 11.5% of EU production in this product despite representing only 0.6% of total EU manufacturing output. Italy, the largest EU exporter by value at €423 million, also shows strong specialisation (RCA of 2.20, normalised RCA of 0.37), with 17.6% of EU production concentrated in this sector. At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (normalised RCA of −1.00), Malta, and Luxembourg show virtually no specialisation in copper semi-finished products, as expected for smaller, service-oriented economies.

Source: Specialisation

Germany and Italy dominate trade flows, while several Member States saw rapid growth

Germany and Italy were the largest EU traders in absolute terms. Germany's exports grew by 49.8% to €373 million, while its imports surged by 156.9% to €139 million. Italy's exports nearly doubled (+96.7%) to €423 million, making it the EU's largest exporter by value by 2025. Several smaller Member States exhibited explosive growth rates from lower bases: Spain's imports grew by 504.4%, Poland's by 370.9%, and Ireland's by 222.9%, suggesting emerging industrial demand or logistical reconfiguration within the single market.

Source: Top reporters

Import concentration increased, reflecting growing dependence on a narrower set of suppliers

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,338 to 1,607 (+20.1%), crossing into the "moderately concentrated" range. This increase was largely driven by the growing weight of Türkiye and the disappearance of Russia, which together redistributed import share toward fewer suppliers. Export concentration remained relatively stable, edging up only 7.0% from 1,453 to 1,555, indicating that the EU maintained a diversified customer base for its copper products.

Source: Concentration HHI

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in copper bars, rods, and profiles underwent a transformation shaped by three reinforcing dynamics: commodity price inflation, geopolitical disruption, and structural reorientation toward greater export dependence. The 75% increase in export value was overwhelmingly a price phenomenon, with volumes barely growing, while the 130% import growth reflected both genuine volume expansion and the same price tailwinds. The disappearance of Russian supply—dropping from €11.6 million to virtually nothing—was the decade's most consequential single event on the import side, redistributing flows toward Türkiye, China, and Ukraine. On the export side, the United States and Israel emerged as high-growth destinations, complementing traditional markets in North Africa and the UK.

The EU's deepening net export position (reliance shifting from −9.8% to −32.1%) and rising export propensity (from 14.9% to 31.3%) confirm that the bloc's copper semi-finished products industry became more outward-looking and competitive. However, the simultaneous 36% decline in production volumes raises questions about long-term industrial capacity. Italy and Bulgaria emerged as the most specialised producers, while Germany maintained its role as the largest absolute trader. Looking ahead, the concentration of imports among fewer suppliers and the sensitivity of prices to global copper market conditions suggest that supply security and price risk management will remain key concerns for EU policymakers and industry participants.