Market evolution: Copper scrap (CN 7404) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of EU copper scrap (CN 7404) with non-EU countries over the period 2015-2025. The product encompasses waste and scrap of copper, excluding certain unwrought shapes and other specific residues. Over the last decade, the EU's trade in this critical circular economy commodity has undergone a fundamental transformation, moving from a position of net dependence to one of strategic export strength. Key drivers include shifting global demand patterns, significant price inflation, and a restructuring of trading relationships. The analysis is based on annual trade data and highlights the principal movements in value, volume, partner concentration, and the EU's vulnerability to external supply shocks.

1. The EU's Pivot from Net Importer to Net Exporter

The most significant trend over the decade is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance for copper scrap. The bloc transitioned from a structural deficit to a substantial surplus, indicating a major shift in its role within the global circular economy supply chain.

A Structural Trade Balance Reversal

In 2015, the EU had a net import reliance of 44.6%, meaning it depended on external sources for nearly half of its copper scrap needs. By 2025, this figure had inverted to a net export reliance of -31.0%. This means the EU became a net supplier of copper scrap to the world. The turning point occurred around 2019-2020, after which the trade balance consistently recorded surpluses, culminating in a positive balance of €322.8 million in 2025, up from a deficit of €229.7 million in 2015. For a detailed view, see the net import reliance metric.

Diverging Price and Volume Trajectories

The shift in the trade balance was driven more by value than volume, highlighting the impact of global commodity price cycles.

While the physical quantities (tonnes) of both exports and imports declined over the period, their values surged due to a dramatic rise in unit prices. However, export prices increased more steeply (154.6%) than import prices (91.4%). This price differential, likely reflecting stronger demand for EU-origin scrap in key Asian markets, amplified the positive shift in the trade balance. The EU effectively exported less physical material but generated significantly more revenue, turning its scrap into a high-value export commodity. The general trade overview with these figures is available here.

2. Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

The EU's trade relationships for copper scrap have been redefined, with a pronounced pivot towards Asian markets for exports and increased sourcing from new partners for its remaining imports.

Export Flows: Consolidation on Asia

China remained the dominant destination for EU copper scrap throughout the period, growing from €1.43 billion in 2015 to €2.13 billion in 2025. More notably, other Asian markets saw explosive growth, indicating a broadening of the EU's export base:

The top partners for exports table clearly shows this eastward orientation. India, in particular, has grown to become a market of almost half a billion euros, second only to China.

Import Sources: The Rise of the United States

On the import side, the United States has emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier to the EU.

The U.S. share of EU imports soared, with its value increasing by 320% to become the largest single source by a significant margin. While traditional partners like the United Kingdom and Switzerland remained important, their growth was modest in comparison. This concentration of import supply on a single country increased the geographic risk for EU importers, as reflected in the rising Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration. The evolution of top import partners underscores this dynamic.

3. Market Consolidation and Structural Shifts within the EU

Beyond trade flows, the internal market structure for EU member states has also evolved, showing increased production, changing national specializations, and a significant shock event in the supply chain.

Production Growth and Evolving Specialisation

EU domestic production of secondary raw copper materials (Prodcom 38.32.23.00) grew over the period, with production quantity rising 7.3% from 475 to 510 thousand tonnes and value increasing 29.0% from €1.63 to €2.10 billion. This suggests stable, if not growing, capacity for copper scrap processing within the bloc.

Analysis of country specialization reveals a mixed picture. France and Romania show strong revealed comparative advantages (RCA > 1) in this product, suggesting they are net exporters relative to their overall trade. Conversely, large economies like Belgium, Spain, and Italy, despite being major traders in absolute terms, show a negative Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), indicating they are net importers in this specific product line, which aligns with their large industrial demand.

Concentration, Volatility, and Supply Shocks

The market experienced a shock event centered in 2021 involving imports from Türkiye. The data shows an abnormal price spike (abnormality score: 10.9) with a price shift of 48.9%, affecting 2.0% of total import value. This event likely reflects severe disruptions or strategic behavior in a niche supply chain during a period of global volatility. For more details on this and other volatility metrics, see the supply shocks and volatility bars sections.

Concurrently, the export market became less concentrated while the import market became more concentrated. The export HHI (value) fell by 39.2% from 5,797 to 3,523, indicating a diversification of EU scrap outlets. In contrast, the import HHI (value) rose sharply by 93.3% from 985 to 1,905, confirming the increased reliance on the United States as the primary import source. This divergence increased the EU's export market resilience while potentially increasing its import supply vulnerability.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU copper scrap market underwent a profound transformation. The bloc transitioned decisively from a net importer to a net exporter, a shift underpinned by favourable price differentials and a strategic reorientation of trade flows towards high-demand Asian markets, particularly India and China. Concurrently, import sourcing became heavily concentrated on the United States.

Internally, EU production remained robust, and the market experienced a significant supply-price shock linked to Türkiye in 2021, highlighting niche vulnerabilities. The overall narrative is one of the EU leveraging its circular economy outputs as a strategic trade asset, achieving greater autonomy in this specific material flow. However, this newfound export strength is partially balanced by increased import dependency on a single major partner, presenting a nuanced picture of the bloc's evolving position in the global circular economy for critical raw materials.