Market evolution: Copper pipes and tubes (CN 7411) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in copper tubes and pipes (Combined Nomenclature code 7411) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers tubes and pipes made of refined copper (741110), brass (741121), cupro-nickel (741122), and other copper alloys (741129). These products serve critical roles in plumbing, HVAC systems, industrial equipment, and construction.

Over the decade, the EU copper tube market has undergone a fundamental transformation. While the EU remained a net exporter throughout, its trade surplus shrank by 53.8% — from €377 million to €174 million — as imports surged far more rapidly than exports. Simultaneously, the geographic landscape has been dramatically reshuffled: Asian suppliers, particularly Vietnam and China, displaced traditional European partners, while the collapse of exports to Russia after 2022 and a surge toward the United States redraw the EU's export map. These shifts occurred against a backdrop of sharply rising prices, halved domestic production, and increasing market concentration.

1. The Widening Import Gap Erodes a Historic Trade Surplus

1.1 Import volumes and values have more than doubled

EU imports of copper tubes and pipes grew dramatically over the period. In value terms, imports rose from €250 million in 2015 to €688 million in 2025, an increase of 175.2%. In volume, imports more than doubled, climbing from 31,095 tonnes to 63,770 tonnes (+105.1%). The growth was heavily concentrated in refined copper tubes (741110), where import volumes rose from 22,133 tonnes to 53,082 tonnes (+140%). By 2025, refined copper tubes represented approximately 83% of all imports by volume and 80% by value.

Source: Product segment breakdown

1.2 Export values grew but volumes contracted

EU exports tell a contrasting story. While export values rose 37.6% — from €627 million to €862 million — this was entirely driven by higher unit prices. Export volumes actually fell 19.8%, from 91,778 tonnes to 73,598 tonnes. The decline was broad-based across subcategories: refined copper tube exports dropped from 72,927 to 62,484 tonnes (−14%), brass tube exports fell 45%, and cupro-nickel exports plummeted 58%.

This divergence — rising export values on falling volumes — reflects the steep global price increases in copper products, which masked what was essentially a contraction in the EU's physical export footprint.

1.3 The trade surplus has narrowed by more than half

The combined effect of surging imports and declining export volumes was a sharp erosion of the EU's trade surplus in copper tubes.

Sources: General overview · Net import reliance

The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout — confirming that the EU stayed a net exporter — but the figure moved from −9.5% to −6.8%. At the current trajectory, the EU risks approaching a balanced or even net-import position within a few years.

2. Geographic Reshuffling: New Suppliers Emerge and Markets Shift

2.1 Asian suppliers — especially Vietnam and China — now dominate EU imports

The most striking feature of the decade is the dramatic reshuffling of the EU's import partners. Vietnam's rise is the single most remarkable data point: EU imports from Vietnam went from €1.3 million in 2015 to €181.1 million in 2025 — an increase of nearly 14,000%. Vietnam now accounts for over a quarter of all EU copper tube imports by value. China, the second-largest supplier, grew from €50.8 million to €189.1 million (+272%), while Turkey (+384%) and Mexico (+247%) also posted substantial gains.

Source: Top import partners by value

Meanwhile, several traditional European and near-European suppliers saw their share decline. The United Kingdom — previously the largest single source — fell from €66.3 million to €44.3 million (−33.1%), while Serbia and Malaysia also contracted. The data suggests a clear structural shift: copper tube production has migrated toward Asia, with Vietnam emerging as a dominant low-cost supplier to the European market. China and Vietnam together now account for more than half of EU copper tube imports by value.

2.2 Exports to Russia collapsed while the United States became a key growth market

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the near-total collapse of exports to Russia. EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €35.4 million in 2015 to just €1,435 in 2025 (−100%), a clear consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The high volatility associated with this trade flow (coefficient of variation: 0.69) reflects the abruptness of the disruption.

At the same time, the United States emerged as a major growth destination. EU exports to the US surged from €64.6 million to €240.0 million (+271%), making the US nearly as important as the United Kingdom (€248.1 million) as an export destination. Together, the UK and US now absorb approximately 57% of all EU copper tube exports by value.

Source: Top export partners by value

2.3 Within the EU, Italy drives import growth while Germany and Greece dominate exports

Analysis by EU member state reveals that the import surge was concentrated in a few key economies. Italy — already the largest importer in 2015 — saw its imports grow from €36.4 million to €177.4 million (+387%), accounting for over a quarter of total EU imports in 2025. Spain (+414%) and the Netherlands (+212%) also saw dramatic increases, consistent with the hypothesis that Southern and Western European ports serve as primary entry points for Asian-origin copper tubes.

On the export side, Germany remained the largest EU exporter (€283.8 million in 2025, +23% vs. 2015), followed by Greece (€233.6 million, +55%) and Italy (€158.9 million, +75%). The top three exporters together accounted for nearly 78% of all EU copper tube exports by value.

Greece's prominence is particularly noteworthy: the country displays the highest specialisation in copper tubes among all EU member states, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.94 and an RCA of 29.8, and it accounts for roughly 20% of EU production despite its small overall economy. Italy's dual role as both the largest importer and third-largest exporter suggests it functions as a major processing hub — importing raw tubes and re-exporting higher-value finished products.

3. Rising Prices, Declining Production, and Growing Concentration

3.1 Unit prices have risen steeply across all segments

Copper tube prices increased substantially over the decade, driven by rising global copper prices, post-pandemic supply chain pressures, and elevated European energy costs.

Source: General overview

The rise was most pronounced in export prices (+71.5% vs. +34.2% for imports), which partly reflects the fact that the EU increasingly competes on higher-value or niche products. Within subcategories, cupro-nickel tube export prices (741122) nearly doubled from €10,986/t to €21,042/t, while refined copper tube export prices rose from €6,247/t to €11,092/t.

A notable supply shock was detected in 2021: EU imports from the United Kingdom experienced a price shock with a 38.4% price shift and an abnormality score of 27.0, with UK imports accounting for 15.2% of total EU import value at the time. This event coincided with the post-COVID global supply chain disruptions and the copper price spike of that year.

3.2 EU production of copper tubes has halved in volume

Perhaps the most consequential long-term trend is the collapse of EU production. Output fell from 725,652 tonnes in 2015 to 314,183 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 56.7%. Production value fell less steeply (−18.8%, from €3.87 billion to €3.14 billion), as higher copper prices partially offset the volume decline.

Source: Production volumes

This halving of production volumes is the structural cause behind the import surge documented in Section 1. As EU-based manufacturing capacity contracted, the market increasingly relied on external suppliers — particularly in Asia — to meet demand. Higher European energy costs, stricter environmental regulations, and competitive pressure from lower-cost Asian producers likely all contributed to this decline. The rising trade intensity (from 26.8% to 37.7%) and export propensity (from 19.1% to 25.6%) confirm that the EU copper tube market has become significantly more dependent on international trade over the decade.

3.3 Trade is becoming more concentrated among fewer partners

Both import and export concentration has increased over the period, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).

Source: Concentration (HHI)

Both indices moved from the lower to the upper end of the "moderately concentrated" range (typically 1,000–1,800). On the import side, this reflects the consolidation of supply around China and Vietnam, which together now account for more than half of import value. On the export side, the growing dominance of the UK and US — absorbing 57% of exports in 2025 — mirrors the same dynamic.

The increasing concentration carries implications for supply security. The volatility analysis reveals that some of the fastest-growing import sources also exhibit high variability: Vietnam's coefficient of variation stands at 0.83, indicating significant year-to-year swings. Reliance on a smaller set of suppliers with volatile trade flows increases the EU's exposure to potential supply disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU market for copper tubes and pipes (CN 7411) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three interlinked dynamics define this evolution:

1. An eroding trade surplus. Imports more than doubled in volume (+105%) and nearly tripled in value (+175%), while export volumes contracted by 20%. The EU's trade surplus shrank from €377 million to €174 million, and the net export position weakened from −9.5% to −6.8%.

2. A dramatic geographic reorientation. Asian suppliers — led by Vietnam and China — have replaced traditional European sources for imports, while the collapse of exports to Russia and the surge toward the United States have redrawn the EU's export map. Within the EU, Italy emerged as the dominant importer and Germany and Greece as the leading exporters.

3. Structural pressure on production and rising concentration. EU production halved in volume, prices rose sharply across all segments, and trade became more concentrated among fewer partners. These trends point to a market under structural pressure from global competition, rising costs, and shifting supply chains.

Looking ahead, the narrowing of the trade surplus, the halving of domestic production, and the concentration of imports around a small number of Asian suppliers raise important questions about supply security and industrial resilience in the European copper tube sector.