Market evolution: Copper foil thin backed (CN 7410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in copper foil of thickness ≤ 0.15 mm (Combined Nomenclature code 7410) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers both refined and alloy copper foils, backed and un-backed, which are critical inputs in the electronics industry — notably for printed circuit boards (PCBs) and, increasingly, for lithium-ion battery current collectors used in electric vehicles. The EU's trade position in this product category underwent a dramatic transformation over the decade: the Union shifted from being a strong net exporter with a trade surplus of €269 million in 2015 to near-balance (surplus of only €40 million) in 2025. This structural change was driven by a surge in imports — particularly of refined, un-backed copper foil (subheading 741011) — while export volumes declined by nearly half. The following sections dissect these dynamics along three axes: the macro-level trade shift, the reorientation of supply sources, and the redistribution of activity across EU Member States.

1. A Decade of Erosion: The EU's Shrinking Surplus in Copper Foil

1.1 Export volumes fell sharply while import volumes doubled

The most striking macro-level trend is the divergence between export and import trajectories. EU extra-EU exports of copper foil fell from 43,603 tonnes in 2015 to 23,717 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 45.6%. Over the same period, imports more than doubled, rising from 10,749 tonnes to 21,659 tonnes (+101.5%). In value terms, the picture is partially masked by rising unit prices: export value declined by a more modest 10.1% (from €380 million to €342 million), while import value surged by 170.3% (from €112 million to €302 million).

Source: General Overview — trade

The trade balance thus contracted by 85.1% over the period. The EU went from being a substantial net exporter — with a net import reliance of −112.3% in 2015 — to a slight net importer by 2025 (+3.6%). The turning point was around 2021–2022, when import demand spiked and the balance briefly turned negative (reaching −€137 million in 2022).

1.2 Unit prices rose across the board, partly cushioning value figures

Both export and import unit prices increased substantially over the decade, reflecting a combination of higher global copper prices, inflationary pressures, and a possible shift toward higher-value product mixes. Export unit prices rose from €8,724/t to €14,422/t (+65.3%), while import prices increased from €10,391/t to €13,939/t (+34.2%). Notably, EU exports consistently commanded a lower average unit price than imports during most of the period, which may reflect the composition of trade: the EU imported relatively more backed foils and high-specification refined foils (which carry higher per-tonne values) while exporting larger volumes of lower unit-value products.

1.3 EU domestic production contracted sharply

The decline in export volumes is partly explained by a significant contraction in EU production. PRODCOM-reported production of copper foil ≤ 0.15 mm fell from 126,531 tonnes in 2015 to just 45,000 tonnes in 2025 — a drop of 64.4% in quantity. Production value declined more moderately (−18.6%, from €778 million to €633 million), again reflecting higher average prices. This production decline is consistent with the broader trend of European deindustrialisation in mid-stream electronics materials and the relocation of PCB manufacturing capacity to Asia.

2. The Asian Supply Surge: Korea, Malaysia, and the Rise of New Import Sources

2.1 South Korea became the EU's dominant import supplier

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the rise of South Korea. EU imports from Korea surged from just €6 million in 2015 to €102 million in 2025 — an increase of 1,596%. At their peak in 2022, Korean imports reached €249 million, making Korea by far the largest single supplier. This explosive growth is closely linked to the expansion of Korean battery cell manufacturing in Europe (notably Samsung SDI's plant in Hungary and LG Energy Solution's facilities in Poland), which require large volumes of thin copper foil as anode current collectors. Korean foil producers — such as LS Mtron and Solus Advanced Materials — scaled up exports to serve these captive European production sites.

2.2 Malaysia emerged as the second major new supplier

Imports from Malaysia followed a similarly dramatic trajectory, rising from a negligible €0.6 million in 2015 to €65 million in 2025 (+11,054%). Malaysian imports peaked at €111 million in 2022. Malaysia has become a major hub for copper foil production serving the global electronics supply chain, with significant investment by Japanese and Korean producers (e.g., Mitsui Mining & Smelting) establishing capacity in the country. The high volatility of Malaysian shipments (coefficient of variation of 1.29 — the highest among import partners) suggests that trade flows are lumpy and likely tied to specific project-based or contract-based shipments rather than stable spot-market trade.

2.3 Traditional Asian suppliers maintained moderate positions

China, Japan, and Taiwan — long-established copper foil producers — showed more moderate changes. Chinese imports grew from €27 million to €44 million (+60.9%), with relatively low volatility (CV 0.11), suggesting a stable, structural trade relationship. Japanese imports remained essentially flat (from €13 million to €13 million), while Taiwanese imports edged down slightly. The concentration of imports by partner (HHI) fell from 2,062 in 2015 to 2,002 in 2025, indicating a modest diversification of supply — though the level remains moderate, reflecting the continued importance of a small number of Asian suppliers.

Source: General Overview — top import partners

2.4 The un-backed refined copper foil subheading drove the import surge

A breakdown by product subheading reveals that the import growth was overwhelmingly concentrated in subheading 741011 (refined copper foil, not backed). This subheading's import volume surged from just 1,048 tonnes in 2015 to 16,142 tonnes in 2025 (+1,440%), and its import value rose from €12 million to €205 million. By 2025, 741011 accounted for 74.5% of all extra-EU copper foil imports by volume, up from only 9.8% in 2015. This is precisely the type of foil used in lithium-ion battery manufacturing, confirming that the EV battery supply chain is the primary structural driver of the import surge. In contrast, imports of backed refined copper foil (741021) — traditionally the dominant import subheading used in PCBs — actually declined from 8,808 tonnes to 4,581 tonnes.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

3. Redistribution Within the EU: Hungary's Rise and the Decline of Western European Traders

3.1 Hungary became the EU's largest importer by a wide margin

The intra-EU redistribution of import activity was equally dramatic. Hungary's extra-EU copper foil imports rose from €1.5 million in 2015 to €138 million in 2025 (+8,865%), peaking at €216 million in 2022. By 2025, Hungary alone accounted for 45.6% of all extra-EU copper foil imports by value. This surge is directly attributable to Samsung SDI's battery cell gigafactory in Göd (near Budapest), one of the largest lithium-ion battery plants in Europe, which requires vast quantities of thin copper foil. Poland similarly saw imports rise from €2.6 million to €26 million (+915%), linked to LG Energy Solution's battery plants in Wrocław and Kobierzyce.

3.2 Germany remained a stable, diversified importer

Germany's imports fluctuated within a relatively narrow band of €37 million to €54 million over the period, ending at €45 million in 2025. Germany's role as a diversified industrial base — with both PCB fabricators and automotive OEMs — explains its stability. Austria (+105%) and France (+49%) also saw moderate increases, while Italy's imports declined slightly (−15%).

3.3 Export leadership shifted from Germany and the Netherlands to Luxembourg

On the export side, the EU's largest exporter in 2025 was Luxembourg (€125 million, +62% from 2015), which is home to major copper processing operations. Germany's exports declined from €119 million to €71 million (−40%), and the Netherlands' fell from €117 million to €53 million (−55%). The decline of the Netherlands may partly reflect the fading role of Rotterdam as a re-export hub. Meanwhile, Hungary emerged as an exporter as well, rising from virtually zero in 2015 to €27 million in 2025 — suggesting that some battery-grade foil is being processed or re-exported from Hungarian facilities.

3.4 Specialisation patterns confirm a concentrated production landscape

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Luxembourg (RSCA: 0.93, RCA: 29.3) and Hungary (RSCA: 0.81, RCA: 9.4) are by far the most specialised EU exporters of copper foil. Hungary's production share within the product category stands at 25.2%, underscoring the scale of the battery-foil supply chain that has developed there. In contrast, most other EU Member States show very low or negative RSCA values, confirming that copper foil production and trade is geographically concentrated within the EU.

3.5 Export concentration increased markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by partner rose from 592 in 2015 to 1,459 in 2025 (+146%), indicating that exports became significantly more concentrated in destination markets. The United States became the dominant export destination (€86 million, +110%), followed by China (€75 million, +29%) and South Korea (€46 million, +215%). Meanwhile, exports to Egypt collapsed from €22 million to €0.5 million (−98%), and those to Singapore fell from €22 million to €6 million (−73%). Price shocks were detected in exports to the United Kingdom in 2019 (−32.1% price shift) and to the United Arab Emirates in 2023 (+1,101% price shift), though both represented relatively small shares of total export value.

Conclusion

The EU's copper foil market (CN 7410) underwent a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Once a strong net exporter with a surplus exceeding a quarter of a billion euros, the EU saw its trade balance erode to near-zero as import volumes more than doubled while export volumes halved. This shift was driven primarily by the rapid build-out of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity within the EU, which created massive new demand for thin, un-backed refined copper foil (subheading 741011) — a product that EU producers could not supply in sufficient quantity. South Korea and Malaysia emerged as the dominant new suppliers, while Hungary — hosting major battery gigafactories — became the EU's single largest import gateway. The data paints a picture of an industry in transition: EU copper foil production declined by 64% in volume, traditional Western European trade hubs (Germany, the Netherlands) lost ground, and the centre of gravity for both imports and specialised production shifted toward Central Europe. The near-doubling of unit prices across both imports and exports partially masked the volume trends in value terms but reflects the increasing strategic importance and cost of this critical material in the clean-energy transition.