Market evolution: Stranded copper wire (CN 7413) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in stranded wire, cables, plaited bands and the like, of copper (CN 7413) over the period 2015–2025. The decade witnessed a dramatic structural shift: the EU moved from a modest trade surplus of €25 million in 2015 to a deficit of €271 million in 2025, driven by a tripling of import value (+207%) against more modest export growth (+29%). Prices rose across the board, but the EU's export volumes actually declined while import volumes more than doubled—signalling a fundamental reorientation of the bloc's position in global copper stranded-wire trade.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: A Decade of Diverging Flows

1.1 Import value tripled while export value grew by less than a third

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the widening gap between imports and exports. EU imports of CN 7413 rose from €170.7 million to €523.7 million (+206.9%), while exports increased from €195.7 million to €252.5 million (+29.0%). By 2025, imports were more than double exports in value terms.

1.2 The EU exported less copper by weight while importing far more

Price increases partially explain the value growth, but the volume trends reveal a deeper structural story. Export quantities fell from 28,473 tonnes to 21,771 tonnes (−23.5%), while import volumes surged from 25,266 tonnes to 51,247 tonnes (+102.8%). The EU thus became a significantly larger net consumer of non-EU copper stranded wire by the end of the period.

1.3 Unit prices nearly doubled, but import prices grew faster on a lower base

Both import and export unit prices rose substantially over the decade, reflecting the broader commodity supercycle and post-pandemic cost pressures in copper markets. Export prices climbed from €6,873/t to €11,595/t (+68.7%), while import prices rose from €6,754/t to €10,219/t (+51.3%). Notably, export prices ended higher than import prices, consistent with the EU exporting higher-value-added or processed products, while importing lower-cost semi-finished material—primarily from Türkiye.

2. The Rise of Türkiye and Shifting Partner Geographies

2.1 Türkiye became the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier

No single partner country shaped EU trade in CN 7413 more than Türkiye. Turkish imports grew from €138.5 million to €424.9 million (+206.9%), meaning that by 2025, Türkiye alone accounted for approximately 81% of all EU imports in this product category. This extraordinary concentration reflects Türkiye's competitive advantages in copper processing—lower energy and labour costs, geographic proximity, and established supply chains serving European industry.

2.2 Emerging suppliers grew rapidly from a small base but remain marginal

Several non-Turkish suppliers posted extraordinary percentage growth. Uzbekistan (+2,572%), Ukraine (+3,825%), and China (+314%) all expanded their presence. Uzbekistan in particular grew to €33.5 million by 2025, making it the third-largest import source. However, these partners still represent a fraction of the total compared to Türkiye's €425 million. Tunisia, once a meaningful supplier (€2.2 million), essentially disappeared (−91.8%), possibly reflecting shifting production or sourcing decisions.

2.3 Export markets remained more diversified and grew at moderate rates

EU exports were more evenly distributed across partners. Switzerland was the largest destination at €52.9 million (+17.2%), followed by the United Kingdom (€42.4 million, +36.2%) and Norway (€27.6 million, +7.9%). Morocco stood out with strong growth (+98.1% to €15.6 million), and Türkiye itself also emerged as an export destination, growing +171.4% to €18.1 million—suggesting a two-way trade dynamic in semi-finished copper products.

2.4 The import concentration index (HHI) remained high and broadly stable

Import concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), stood at approximately 6,653 in 2025—well above the 2,500 threshold considered "highly concentrated." This is consistent with Türkiye's dominant share. The index changed only marginally (−0.2%) over the period, meaning that despite the arrival of new suppliers, the structural dependence on a single country persisted. Export HHI was much lower (1,033), reflecting the fragmented nature of EU export destinations.

2.5 Significant growth occurred among EU Member States in both imports and exports

Within the EU, the most dramatic shifts were seen in several Member States:

• Poland surged from €3.8 million to €84.1 million in imports (+2,101%), becoming one of the top importers—likely reflecting industrial expansion and integration into regional manufacturing chains.
• Spain (+2,691%) and France (+429%) also saw explosive import growth.
• On the export side, Bulgaria grew from nearly zero (€10,921) to €13.9 million—an extraordinary increase that placed it among the EU's top exporters by 2025, alongside Germany (€88.6M) and Spain (€64.4M).
• Germany remained the EU's largest exporter (€88.6 million) but grew only modestly (+8.6%), while Spain expanded exports significantly (+42.5%).

3. Growing Vulnerability and the Shocks of 2022

3.1 Net import reliance swung from near-zero to nearly one-fifth of apparent consumption

The EU's net import reliance in CN 7413 shifted dramatically. In 2015, it stood at a modest 3.4%, meaning the bloc was nearly self-sufficient. By 2025, it had risen to 18.3%—meaning nearly one-fifth of the EU's apparent consumption of stranded copper wire was sourced from outside the bloc. At its peak, the indicator reached 18.9%. This shift from near-autonomy to meaningful external dependence is one of the defining features of the period.

3.2 Export propensity declined while trade intensity remained stable

The share of EU production exported to non-EU markets (export propensity) fell from 27.6% to 22.5% (−18.4%). This means the EU is keeping a larger share of its own output for domestic use—or that domestic demand is growing faster than export capacity. Meanwhile, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) remained broadly stable around 44–46%, indicating that the product remains deeply integrated into international supply chains.

3.3 EU production grew strongly in value, supporting rising domestic demand

EU domestic production of CN 7413 increased by 41.5% in volume (from 113 million kg to 160 million kg) and by an extraordinary 380.6% in value (from €216 million to €1,036 million). The much faster growth in production value relative to volume mirrors the price inflation observed in trade data. This suggests strong demand-side pressures—likely linked to the energy transition, grid investment, and construction activity—rather than purely supply-driven expansion.

3.4 Export price shocks hit African partners in 2022

Two notable price shocks were detected in the data, both occurring in 2022 and both on the export side:

• Morocco: a price shock with an abnormality score of 6.9 and a price shift of +53.1%, accounting for 5.7% of export value.
• Tunisia: a price shock with an abnormality score of 6.1 and a price shift of +187.7%, accounting for 2.4% of export value.

These shocks coincided with the global commodity price spike that followed the 2021–2022 energy crisis and the disruption of supply chains in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The particularly large percentage increase for Tunisia likely reflects a smaller base value magnifying the effect of price movements.

3.5 Import volatility was highest for smaller or geopolitically sensitive partners

The coefficient of variation of import flows was highest for Angola (2.00), the Russian Federation (1.31), and Uzbekistan (1.01)—all suppliers with small or erratic volumes. Türkiye, despite its massive share, showed relatively low volatility (CV of 0.18), underscoring its role as a stable, structural supplier. On the export side, Egypt (1.74) and India (0.89) showed the highest volatility among major partners.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in stranded copper wire (CN 7413) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. A decade ago, the bloc was a net exporter with a small surplus; by 2025, it had become a significant net importer with a deficit of €271 million. This shift was driven by a combination of rapidly growing domestic demand—fuelled by infrastructure investment and the green transition—and the increasing competitiveness of non-EU suppliers, above all Türkiye, which now accounts for over 80% of imports.

The concentration of imports in a single partner raises strategic questions about supply security, particularly as geopolitical instability continues to affect global trade. While EU production has grown strongly in value terms, the growing gap between import and export volumes suggests that domestic capacity is not keeping pace with demand. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, the data points to a need for diversification of import sources, continued investment in domestic copper processing capacity, and close monitoring of the price dynamics that have made this product increasingly expensive on both sides of the trade ledger.