Market evolution: Copper bars and rods (CN 740710) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in refined copper bars, rods and profiles (CN 740710) over the period 2015–2025. The product falls under the broader HS heading 7407 (copper bars, rods and profiles) and maps to PRODCOM code 24.44.22.00, which covers copper and copper alloy bars, rods, profiles and hollow profiles excluding cast or sintered items and wire rod in coils. Over the decade, the EU maintained a consistently positive trade balance, with the bloc functioning as a major net exporter of these semi-finished copper products. Total exports grew from approximately €240 million in 2015 to €490 million in 2025, while imports rose more modestly from €43 million to €127 million. However, these aggregate figures mask a set of important structural shifts—relating to prices, sourcing geography, production volumes, and market concentration—that this report sets out to describe and interpret.

1. The Price-Led Nature of Trade Value Growth

Export values doubled while volumes rose only modestly

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports of CN 740710 grew by 104.5%, rising from €239.6 million to €490.0 million. Over the same period, export quantities increased by just 16.7%, from 36,052 tonnes to 42,077 tonnes. The unit export price consequently rose by 74.7%, climbing from €6,647 per tonne to €11,609 per tonne. This pattern indicates that the overwhelming majority of value growth was driven by higher copper prices on international markets rather than by a substantial increase in the physical volume of exports.

Import growth was sharper in volume terms

EU imports grew even faster in value terms, increasing by 196.9% from €42.8 million to €127.0 million. Import volumes nearly doubled, rising by 93.8% from 5,717 tonnes to 11,081 tonnes, while the import unit price grew by 53.2% (from €7,479/t to €11,456/t). Unlike exports, import growth was therefore a combination of both significantly higher volumes and higher prices—suggesting that the EU's demand for externally sourced copper semi-finished products expanded structurally, not just in monetary terms.

The trade surplus widened despite faster import growth

The EU's trade balance in CN 740710 grew from €196.9 million to €363.1 million (+84.4%), indicating that the EU remained a strong net exporter throughout the period. The net import reliance actually deepened from −9.8% to −32.1%, meaning the EU's position as a net supplier of copper bars and rods to world markets strengthened considerably over the decade.

2. Geographic Shifts in Trading Partnerships

Export markets: the US overtook the UK as the top destination

The top export destinations for EU copper bars and rods in 2025 were the United States, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. Between 2015 and 2025, the value shipped to the United States grew by 171.3% (from €55.8m to €151.3m), far outpacing the UK's 103.6% increase (from €61.7m to €125.6m). Norway emerged as a fast-growing market, with export value surging by 240.2% (from €6.0m to €20.4m). These three trends—US re-industrialisation and infrastructure investment, continued EU–UK post-Brexit trade in industrial inputs, and Nordic demand linked to electrification projects—are plausible contextual explanations.

Import sources diversified, but Turkey and China surged

On the import side, the most striking development was the explosive growth of Türkiye as a supplier. Turkish imports grew from just €1.3 million in 2015 to €28.6 million in 2025—a 2,066% increase. China's imports also grew rapidly, from €7.9m to €24.1m (+204%). The UK, which simultaneously features as both a major export market and import source, saw its inbound shipments rise from €5.7m to €20.4m (+258.7%), reflecting deep EU–UK industrial integration in copper processing.

Germany, Bulgaria and Austria led intra-EU export growth

Among EU member states, Germany remained the largest exporter with shipments rising from €63.5m to €119.2m (+87.7%). Bulgaria saw the most dramatic growth, expanding from €27.0m to €90.2m (+234.5%), which aligns with the country's high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score of 0.95, confirming Bulgaria as the most specialised EU producer in this product category. Austria's exports grew from €5.3m to €24.7m (+362.4%). On the import side, Germany's imports grew from €19.6m to €53.0m (+171.0%), while Spain's imports surged from €1.5m to €20.6m (+1,287%).

3. Structural Pressures: Declining Production and Rising Concentration

EU domestic production volumes fell sharply

Despite the EU's growing role as a net exporter, domestic production of copper bars and rods experienced a significant contraction. Production quantities declined from approximately 1,407,359 tonnes in 2015 to 902,534 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 35.9%. Over the same period, production value grew marginally by 5.6%, from €4,024 million to €4,251 million, implying that the unit value of production rose substantially to compensate for lower volumes. This decline likely reflects the impact of high energy costs in Europe, capacity rationalisation, and increasing competition from Asian producers.

Trade concentration increased on both the import and export sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 1,117 to 1,436 (+28.5%), while the export HHI increased from 1,379 to 1,789 (+29.7%). While these levels remain below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a highly concentrated market, the upward trend indicates that trade became more reliant on a narrower set of partners. For imports, the rapid expansion of Türkiye and China likely contributed to this concentration. For exports, the growing dominance of the United States as a destination market (accounting for a significant share of total export value) is a key driver.

Import volatility was significantly higher than export volatility

The coefficient of variation of import flows from key partners was substantially higher than for exports. Imports from Türkiye had a CV of 0.98, from Vietnam of 2.39, and from Russia of 1.93, indicating highly erratic supply patterns. By contrast, the EU's main export relationships were remarkably stable: the UK's CV was just 0.10, Switzerland's 0.10, and the US's 0.24. This asymmetry suggests that the EU's export relationships are mature and long-standing, whereas its import supply chains remain more volatile and potentially exposed to disruption.

Price shocks clustered around 2019–2022

The data reveals notable price shock events concentrated in the 2019–2022 window. Imports from the UK registered an abnormality score of 189.3 in 2021, with a price shift of +70.4%. Swiss imports showed a price shock in 2019 (abnormality 75.9, +57.7%), and Indian imports spiked in 2022 (+367.3%). These shocks broadly coincide with the post-COVID commodity price surge, supply chain disruptions, and the energy price spike triggered by geopolitical events in 2021–2022.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of refined copper bars and rods, with the trade surplus widening to €363 million by 2025. However, the headline growth in trade values was predominantly price-driven: export volumes grew by only 16.7% while unit prices rose by 74.7%. Simultaneously, EU domestic production volumes declined by 35.9%, suggesting structural pressures on the European copper processing industry. The geographic landscape shifted meaningfully: the United States emerged as the largest single export market, while Türkiye and China rapidly increased their presence as import suppliers. Trade concentration rose on both sides, and import supply chains exhibited considerably higher volatility than export relationships. Looking ahead, the interplay between global copper price dynamics, EU industrial competitiveness, and the diversification (or further concentration) of supply sources will be the key variables shaping this market.