Market evolution: Brass bars rods and profiles (CN 740721) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in brass bars, rods and profiles (Combined Nomenclature code 740721) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers semi-finished copper-zinc alloy shapes used across construction, engineering, and manufacturing industries. Over this decade, the EU's trade position in this product category has been shaped by substantial price increases, significant geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains, a structural decline in domestic production volumes, and a pronounced reorientation of both export and import partnerships. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail, drawing on trade value, volume, price, and partner data aggregated at the EU level.

1. A Decade of Price-Driven Expansion: Values Rise While Quantities Stagnate

The most striking feature of EU brass trade over 2015–2025 is the divergence between value and volume trends. While trade values grew substantially on both the export and import sides, physical quantities moved far less decisively — or even declined. This points to a market where price dynamics, rather than expanding physical demand, drove headline trade growth.

Export values surged even as volumes contracted

EU exports of brass bars, rods and profiles grew from €302 million in 2015 to €405 million in 2025, a gain of 34.3% in value. Over the same period, export quantities actually fell by 4.6%, from 62,933 tonnes to 60,044 tonnes. The peak export volume was reached in 2021 at 76,002 tonnes, after which volumes declined again. This combination of rising values and falling volumes reflects a sharp increase in export unit values: average export prices climbed 40.8%, from €4,793/t in 2015 to €6,750/t in 2025.

Import values nearly doubled on modest volume gains

On the import side, the pattern was even more pronounced. Import values surged 87.6%, from €69 million to €129 million, while import volumes rose a more modest 20.0%, from 14,097 tonnes to 16,920 tonnes. Import unit values thus rose 56.3%, from €4,863/t to €7,601/t. Notably, import prices consistently exceeded export prices from 2022 onward — reaching €7,601/t in 2025 compared with €6,750/t for exports — suggesting the EU was increasingly sourcing higher-value (or more costly) brass products from outside the bloc.

The sub-product mix reveals differentiated pricing

The breakdown between the two sub-products under CN 740721 illuminates these price dynamics further:

Profiles (74072190) consistently commanded a significant price premium over bars and rods (74072110), as expected given the additional processing involved. However, bars and rods — which represent the bulk of trade by volume — saw faster import price inflation, nearly converging with profile prices by 2025. This likely reflects tighter supply conditions for standard brass semi-finished products and rising raw material (copper and zinc) costs transmitted through the supply chain.

2. Geopolitical Realignments and Partner Diversification

The decade saw significant shifts in the EU's trade geography, driven by geopolitical events, trade policy changes, and evolving competitive dynamics among supplier and customer countries.

Türkiye consolidated its role as the dominant import supplier

Türkiye was by far the EU's largest source of brass imports throughout the period, accounting for over half of total import value by 2025. Imports from Türkiye grew from €42 million in 2015 to €76 million in 2025, an increase of 82.7%. Türkiye's share rose as other suppliers fell away, and the country's import volumes remained the most stable among the EU's major partners, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of just 0.24 — the lowest of any major import source.

Ukraine emerged as a fast-growing supplier, though marked by volatility

The most dramatic growth among EU import sources came from Ukraine, where imports surged from just €1.5 million in 2015 to €16.2 million in 2025 — a tenfold increase. This growth accelerated sharply after 2020, with a notable price shock detected in 2021 (abnormality score of 20.7, with a 35.8% price shift), likely related to supply disruptions linked to the emerging conflict and broader commodity price spikes. Despite the high volatility (CV of 0.69), Ukraine's trajectory suggests its brass sector had become a meaningful part of EU supply chains by the mid-2020s, potentially benefiting from EU trade facilitation measures.

Russia's collapse as an import source

In stark contrast, imports from the Russian Federation fell by 99.0%, from €5.6 million in 2015 to just €54,694 in 2025. The decline accelerated from 2022 onward, coinciding with EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russian import flows showed the highest volatility among major partners (CV of 1.15), reflecting the abruptness of the disruption. This represents a near-total exit of Russian brass from the EU market.

Export partnerships remained stable with the UK as the anchor

On the export side, the United Kingdom was the EU's largest customer throughout the period, with exports essentially flat at around €98 million. The UK's trade showed very low volatility (CV of 0.13), confirming the deeply embedded nature of EU-UK brass trade flows that persisted after Brexit. Norway, Switzerland, and the United States rounded out the top four, all showing single-digit to moderate growth. Israel showed exceptional growth (+796.6%, from €4.0 million to €36.0 million), though from a low base and with high volatility.

The concentration of EU exports decreased over the period, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value falling 27%, from 1,786 to 1,304 — indicating a meaningful diversification of the EU's export customer base. Import concentration also declined, though more modestly (−3.9%), remaining at a higher level (HHI of 3,799 in 2025), reflecting the continued dominance of Türkiye.

3. A Strengthening Net Export Position Amid Declining Domestic Production

Despite — or perhaps because of — falling production volumes, the EU's trade balance in brass bars, rods and profiles strengthened significantly over the period. The bloc became more reliant on external markets for both inputs and outputs, even as it maintained a robust net exporter status.

The trade surplus widened despite faster import growth

The EU's trade surplus in brass bars, rods and profiles grew from €233 million in 2015 to €277 million in 2025, a gain of 18.6%. This occurred even though import values grew much faster (+87.6%) than export values (+34.3%), simply because the EU's export base was far larger. The net import reliance metric — which measures the share of domestic consumption met by net imports — deepened from −9.8% to −32.1%, confirming a strengthening of the EU's net exporter position.

Domestic production volumes contracted sharply while values held up

EU production data reveals a striking structural shift. Physical production of brass bars, rods and profiles fell by 35.9% over the period, from 1.41 billion kg in 2015 to 903 million kg in 2025. Yet production value actually increased by 5.6%, from €4.02 billion to €4.25 billion. This implies a near-doubling of the average unit value of production, consistent with the industry moving toward higher-value, more specialised products while ceding commodity-grade production to lower-cost competitors abroad.

The EU became more deeply integrated into global brass markets

Two metrics confirm the EU's growing market integration:

• Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) rose from 19.7% to 35.9% (+82.0%), meaning that trade flows grew nearly twice as fast as domestic output.
• Export propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled, from 14.9% to 31.3% (+110.0%), indicating that an increasing share of EU production was destined for external markets.

Germany and Italy dominated intra-EU production and trade

Among EU member states, Germany was the largest producer and exporter, accounting for 33.6% of EU production and over half of EU extra-EU export value in 2025 (€201 million). Italy was the second-largest producer (31.9% of production) and the most specialised major economy, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.60. Other notable exporters included France, Poland, Spain, and Greece, the latter showing the fastest growth (+243.0% in exports). On the import side, Italy, Bulgaria, and Germany were the top three importing member states, with Germany's imports growing 211.7% — suggesting that even major producers were increasingly supplementing domestic supply with external sourcing.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in brass bars, rods and profiles over 2015–2025 was characterised by three overarching trends: a price-driven expansion of trade values against a backdrop of stagnating or declining physical volumes; a significant geopolitical realignment of import partnerships, most notably the near-total exit of Russia and the rapid rise of Ukraine; and a structural transformation of the domestic industry toward higher-value production with greater external market orientation. The EU maintained and strengthened its net exporter position, with the trade surplus widening to €277 million by 2025, even as production volumes contracted by over a third. This suggests that European brass producers successfully shifted toward more specialised, higher-margin products while relying on external suppliers — principally Türkiye — for standard semi-finished goods. Looking ahead, the increasing trade intensity and export propensity expose the EU brass sector more fully to global market conditions, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical risks, making supply chain resilience and diversification important considerations for the years ahead.