Market evolution: Steel radiators and air heaters (CN 7322) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 7322, covering non-electrically heated steel radiators for central heating, air heaters, and hot-air distributors over the period 2015–2025. The analysis is based on year-level trade data between the EU and non-EU countries, encompassing three sub-categories: cast-iron radiators (732211), other steel/iron radiators (732219), and motor-driven air heaters (732290).

The decade under review has been marked by profound structural shifts. The EU transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer, export volumes contracted by nearly two-thirds, and prices roughly doubled. These changes reflect the combined impact of geopolitical disruptions—most notably the Russia–Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions—rising input costs, and a reconfiguration of global supply chains. This report is organized around three central themes: the macro-level trade transformation, the reshaping of partner relationships, and the EU's shifting position in global production and vulnerability.

I. A structural reversal: from net exporter to net importer

The trade balance swung decisively into deficit

The most striking development over the decade is the reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a surplus of €125.2 million; by 2025, this had turned into a deficit of –€110.6 million. Net import reliance moved from –7.8% to +2.4%, confirming that the EU shifted from being a net supplier to external markets to depending on imports for a growing share of consumption.

Export volumes collapsed while import volumes expanded moderately

Export quantity fell by 64.1%, far outstripping the 32.1% decline in value—indicating that the EU's remaining exports shifted toward higher-value products or that unit prices rose substantially. Indeed, average export prices climbed 89.4%, from €3,534/t to €6,694/t. On the import side, value grew by 58.8% but quantity only by 21.1%, meaning that rising import prices (+31.1%) account for more than half of the import value increase.

Prices accelerated across all segments, with cast-iron radiators leading

The sub-product breakdown reveals that price inflation was widespread but uneven:

Cast-iron radiator export prices rose nearly fivefold, though from a small volume base (quantities fell from 5,568 t to 217 t). This likely reflects a niche repositioning: the EU increasingly exports only specialty or high-margin cast-iron products while exiting mass-market production. The dominant segment 732219 (non-cast-iron steel radiators) saw its export volume drop from 80,906 t to 28,172 t (–65.2%), while import volumes of the same segment grew from 112,933 t to 136,429 t (+20.8%).

Trade intensity rose sharply, signaling deeper integration despite the deficit

Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) increased from 18.6% to 29.9% (+60.3%). This indicates that, even as domestic production declined, the EU market became more open and more dependent on cross-border flows. Export propensity also rose modestly (from 13.5% to 16.6%), suggesting that the EU's remaining producers became more export-oriented by value, even as their physical volumes shrank.

II. Geopolitical shocks and the reconfiguration of partner relationships

Russia's collapse as an export destination reshaped the EU's trade geography

The single largest disruption in the data is the near-total loss of the Russian market for EU exporters. In 2015, Russia was the EU's top non-EU export destination at €79.2 million; by 2025, exports had fallen to just €5.1 million (–93.5%). This aligns with the sanctions regime imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for Russian export flows (0.68) is among the highest, underscoring the instability of this channel.

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export partner but also declined, partly reflecting post-Brexit trade friction. Switzerland and Ukraine were among the few bright spots, with modest gains.

Türkiye and China emerged as dominant import suppliers

On the import side, Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's primary supplier, growing from €135.5 million to €224.7 million (+65.8%). Its low volatility coefficient (0.13) indicates stable, sustained supply flows. China's imports surged even more dramatically, from €17.0 million to €76.0 million (+347.2%), albeit with higher volatility (CV: 0.37). Together, these two countries accounted for the vast majority of import growth.

The decline in UK imports (–49.2%) and Swiss imports (–82.4%) on the import side mirrors the broader pattern of supply-chain reorientation toward lower-cost producers.

Import concentration increased while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 4,390 to 4,858 (+10.6%), indicating greater supplier concentration. This is driven by Türkiye's growing dominance. For exports, the HHI fell from 1,574 to 1,443 (–8.3%), suggesting a modest diversification of export destinations—likely a response to the loss of Russia, which forced EU exporters to seek alternative markets.

Price shocks were concentrated in export flows to Türkiye and the United States

The shock detection analysis identified two notable price anomalies in export flows: a shock to Turkish-bound exports in 2022 (abnormality score 207.6, price shift +34.9%) and a shock to US-bound exports in 2023 (abnormality 21.9, price shift +69.5%). The 2022 Turkish shock coincides with the energy price spike following the Russia–Ukraine conflict, while the 2023 US shock may reflect supply-chain disruptions or currency effects.

III. Declining EU production capacity and growing external dependence

EU domestic production contracted substantially

Available production data shows a significant decline in EU manufacturing output for CN 7322 products. Production value fell from €2.69 billion to €1.71 billion (–36.7%). This decline in domestic capacity is consistent with the structural shift toward imports and explains, in part, why the EU moved from net exporter to net importer.

Specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that production and export specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern European member states:

Poland and Czechia together account for over 30% of EU production in this sector and exhibit strong comparative advantage. By contrast, large Western European economies like Spain (RSCA: –0.74), Ireland (–0.94), and Greece (–0.90) show negative specialisation, indicating they are net importers with minimal domestic production.

Large Western European member states drove import growth

The top importing member states in 2025 were Romania (€48.1M), Poland (€43.5M), Belgium (€36.0M), France (€30.3M), Netherlands (€30.0M), and Ireland (€29.4M). France (+227%), Netherlands (+143%), and Poland (+145%) showed the strongest growth, reflecting both rising demand and substitution of domestic production with imports. On the export side, Germany remained the largest exporter (€46.4M) but saw a 46.5% decline, while France was the only major exporter to grow (+256%).

Conclusion

The EU market for steel radiators and air heaters (CN 7322) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The decade began with the EU as a modest net exporter with a €125 million surplus; it ended with the EU as a net importer running a €111 million deficit. Export volumes fell by nearly two-thirds, driven by the loss of the Russian market (–93.5%), rising production costs, and declining domestic manufacturing capacity. Simultaneously, imports grew—led by Türkiye and China—filling the gap left by retreating EU producers.

Prices rose sharply across all product segments, reflecting both input cost inflation and a shift toward higher-value, more specialised output. The EU's remaining exports are increasingly concentrated in niche, high-price products, while mass-market supply relies on external sources. Central and Eastern European member states (Poland, Czechia, Romania) have emerged as the EU's production and export hubs, while Western European economies have become more import-dependent.

Looking ahead, the growing reliance on Türkiye and China as suppliers—combined with rising import concentration (HHI up 10.6%)—presents potential vulnerability. Trade intensity reaching nearly 30% means that disruptions to supply chains, whether from geopolitical tensions, tariff changes, or logistics bottlenecks, could have outsized effects on the EU market. Policymakers may wish to monitor these trends closely, particularly in the context of the EU's industrial competitiveness and energy transition objectives.