Market evolution: Steel anchors and grapnels (CN 7316) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in Anchors, grapnels and parts thereof, of iron or steel (CN 7316) over the 2015–2025 period. Despite belonging to a relatively niche product category within iron and steel articles, the trade dynamics of CN 7316 reveal a market undergoing a profound structural transformation. What was once a sector where the EU maintained a modest trade surplus has shifted decisively toward import dependency, driven primarily by a dramatic surge in Chinese supply. At the same time, EU domestic production of these goods has collapsed, raising questions about the long-term industrial resilience of the bloc in this segment. The report is structured around three central observations: the reversal of the EU's trade balance, the reconfiguration of trading partners, and the industrial and price dynamics underlying these shifts.

1. A decisive shift from trade surplus to structural deficit

The EU's trade balance has swung from a €3.5 million surplus to an €8.1 million deficit

The most striking development in the CN 7316 market over the decade is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of approximately €3.5 million, with exports (€24.7M) exceeding imports (€21.1M). By 2025, this had reversed to a deficit of approximately €8.1 million — a swing of nearly 330%. The net import reliance ratio moved from –20.9% (indicating a net exporter position) to +14.5% (indicating net import dependency), confirming a structural rather than cyclical shift.

Import growth far outpaced export growth across both value and volume

The asymmetry in trade performance is evident across all metrics:

Source: General Overview — trade

Imports surged by €13.9 million in value while exports added only €2.2 million. In volume terms, the EU imported an additional 3,593 tonnes but exported only 281 tonnes more. Notably, the persistent price differential — EU exports commanded a unit price roughly 60% higher than imports — suggests the EU has retained a position in higher-value, specialised segments while losing ground in bulk standard production.

EU domestic production has collapsed, intensifying import dependency

The structural deficit coincides with a dramatic contraction in EU production. Reported production volume fell from approximately 37,430 tonnes to just 4,000 tonnes over the period — a decline of 89.3%. Production value followed a similar, though less extreme, trajectory, declining 16.5% from €47.9M to €40.0M. The divergence between volume and value declines indicates that surviving EU producers have moved toward higher-value output, but the sheer scale of the volume contraction points to a fundamental deindustrialisation of this product segment within the EU. This production vacuum has naturally created the conditions for import penetration to fill domestic demand.

2. China's dominance reshapes the EU's import structure

China has become the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, with imports growing 217%

The most significant partner-level development is the meteoric rise of China as the EU's primary source of imports. Chinese imports surged from €6.8 million in 2015 to €21.6 million in 2025 — a 217% increase. By 2025, China alone accounted for approximately 62% of all EU imports in this category, up from roughly 32% at the start of the period. The concentration of EU imports in China has contributed to a significant increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, which rose from 2,644 to 4,240 — indicating a market that has shifted from moderate to high concentration on the import side.

Source: Partners — imports

Brexit and geopolitical re-alignment have restructured European trade flows

The United Kingdom's role in CN 7316 trade has undergone a dramatic transformation consistent with Brexit. UK exports to the EU fell 60.4%, from €5.2M to €2.0M, while paradoxically, EU exports to the UK grew 24.5%, from €1.5M to €1.8M. This divergence is consistent with the introduction of customs barriers and regulatory divergence post-Brexit, which may have disadvantaged UK exporters more than EU-based suppliers. Meanwhile, Türkiye has emerged as a rapidly growing trade partner on both sides — imports from Türkiye grew 277% while exports to Türkiye doubled — reflecting the country's expanding role in Euro-Mediterranean steel supply chains.

The composition of EU export destinations has diversified toward the Gulf and Australia

On the export side, the most remarkable growth came from the United Arab Emirates, where EU exports surged from €90,000 to €2.7 million — a 2,903% increase — and Australia, which grew 44.2% to €3.6M. These shifts suggest EU producers are increasingly orienting toward maritime and offshore energy markets in the Gulf and Australasia, likely driven by offshore wind farm construction and naval procurement. Conversely, exports to Norway and the United States contracted sharply (–66% and –72% respectively), indicating a loss of competitiveness or changing demand patterns in traditional markets.

Import concentration has risen sharply while export markets remain more fragmented

The divergent evolution of market concentration is noteworthy. The import-side HHI rose 60.4% (from 2,644 to 4,240 in value terms), reflecting growing dependence on a small number of suppliers — principally China. The export-side HHI, by contrast, remained low and even declined slightly (from 818 to 778), indicating that EU exporters continue to serve a relatively diversified set of destination markets. This asymmetry has implications for supply chain resilience: while EU export revenue is not overly dependent on any single market, EU import supply is increasingly concentrated, creating potential vulnerability to trade disruptions.

3. Specialisation, volatility, and price shocks define the sector's competitive landscape

The Netherlands and Czechia lead in export specialisation, while larger economies show weaker positions

The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis for 2025 reveals an interesting pattern. The most specialised EU exporters in CN 7316 are:

Source: Specialisation

The Netherlands dominates with nearly half of EU production volume and is the largest EU exporter by value (€12.6M in 2025). Czechia, despite a much smaller production base, demonstrates strong specialisation, suggesting a niche, export-oriented manufacturing cluster. Among major EU economies, Ireland, Germany, and Austria show very low RCA scores (below 0.04), indicating that large member states have largely exited this industrial segment.

Export volatility varies significantly by destination, with some partners exhibiting extreme instability

The coefficient of variation (CV) analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity in trade stability. On the export side, trade with the United States (CV = 2.00), Congo (CV = 2.51), and Australia (CV = 1.41) exhibited the highest volatility, while the Faroe Islands (CV = 0.50) and Türkiye (CV = 0.55) were the most stable. On the import side, Japan (CV = 2.98) and Singapore (CV = 2.68) showed extreme volatility, reflecting irregular or spot-market-driven trade patterns, while China (CV = 0.31) and Türkiye (CV = 0.32) were notably consistent suppliers — reinforcing their roles as structural trade partners.

Major price shocks in 2021–2022 point to post-pandemic market disruption

The volatility analysis detected significant price shocks concentrated in the 2021–2022 period:

Source: Supply shocks

These shocks align with the broader post-COVID commodity price surge and supply chain disruptions that affected global steel markets in 2021–2022. The most extreme shock — a 2,771% price increase in exports to South Korea in 2021 — likely reflects a very low base value combined with a sudden, contract-driven shipment. The US price shock of +389% is more representative, capturing the generalised steel price inflation of that period. The Chile shock in 2022 may reflect a delayed effect tied to Latin American infrastructure demand. These events underscore that while CN 7316 is a niche product, it remains exposed to broader steel market dynamics.

Conclusion

The EU trade market for steel anchors and grapnels (CN 7316) has undergone a fundamental transformation over 2015–2025. The bloc has shifted from a position of modest trade surplus to a structural deficit of €8.1 million, driven by a 66% surge in imports against stagnant export growth. This shift is underpinned by a near-total collapse in EU production volume (–89%), which has created a supply vacuum increasingly filled by Chinese exporters — who now account for over 60% of EU imports. The growing concentration of import supply (HHI up 60%) raises concerns about supply chain resilience, even as EU export markets remain relatively diversified. Meanwhile, surviving EU producers appear to have migrated toward higher-value, specialised segments, maintaining a significant unit-price premium over imports. The 2021–2022 price shocks serve as a reminder that this niche product category remains exposed to broader commodity market volatility. Looking ahead, the trajectory of CN 7316 trade will likely depend on EU industrial policy choices regarding strategic autonomy in steel-intensive sectors, the evolution of offshore energy infrastructure demand, and the competitive dynamics between Chinese cost-efficient production and European quality-oriented manufacturing.