Market evolution: Steel chain and parts (CN 7315) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in iron or steel chains and parts thereof (Combined Nomenclature code 7315) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a broad range of industrial chains — including roller chains, welded link chains, articulated link chains, stud-link chains, skid chains for motor vehicles, and associated parts — while excluding jewellery chains, cutting chains, and certain specialty applications. The EU has historically been a net exporter in this segment, supported by a strong industrial base in Germany, Italy, and other manufacturing economies. However, the decade under review reveals significant structural shifts: rising import penetration, a narrowing trade surplus, changing partner dynamics, and notable price shocks. This report examines these trends across three thematic axes: the overall trade trajectory and its main drivers, the evolving geographic concentration of trade flows, and the EU's strategic positioning in terms of production, specialisation, and vulnerability.

For the full overview dashboard, see the Scope & Definitions section.

I. A Widening Gap: Imports Rise While Export Volumes Shrink

EU exports have declined in volume despite rising unit values

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of CN 7315 products fell from €954 million to €865 million in value (−9.3%) and from 156,182 tonnes to 100,194 tonnes in volume (−35.8%). The decline in export quantity has been continuous and steep, reaching its lowest point in 2025. Export unit prices, however, rose substantially — from €6,109/t to €8,633/t (+41.3%) — suggesting that EU producers have shifted towards higher-value products or have been forced to pass on rising input costs. This price increase partly offsets the volume loss in value terms but signals a potential erosion of competitiveness in standard-grade chains.

Imports have grown robustly in both value and volume

In contrast, EU imports rose from €425 million to €614 million (+44.4%) and from 140,147 tonnes to 169,774 tonnes (+21.1%). Import prices also increased, but more moderately than export prices — from €3,032/t to €3,614/t (+19.2%). The faster growth in import value relative to quantity points to both rising volumes and some price inflation, likely linked to supply chain disruptions in 2021–2022 and structural shifts in sourcing.

The trade surplus has been cut by more than half

As a result of these diverging trajectories, the EU's trade surplus in CN 7315 collapsed from €529 million in 2015 to just €251 million in 2025 (−52.5%). The trough was reached around 2022, when the surplus dipped to approximately €45 million amid a surge in import values. Although it partially recovered thereafter, the structural narrowing is unmistakable. The net import reliance metric confirms this: it shifted from −13.4% (net exporter) to −31.4%, indicating that while the EU remains a net exporter, imports now represent a significantly larger share of the domestic market.

Welded link chains dominate imports; roller chains drive export growth

At the product-segment level, the two largest import categories are roller chain (CN 731511) and welded link chain (CN 731582). Roller chain imports fluctuated between 40,750 tonnes (2016) and 76,151 tonnes (2022), ending at 51,360 tonnes in 2025 — still above the 2015 baseline. Welded link chain imports, however, showed the most consistent growth, rising from 29,176 tonnes to 44,383 tonnes (+52%). On the export side, welded link chain (CN 731582) was historically the largest category by volume but has contracted dramatically — from 81,650 tonnes in 2015 to just 37,000 tonnes in 2025. Roller chain exports, by contrast, grew from 14,614 to 22,391 tonnes (+53%), suggesting a shift in EU export specialisation towards higher-value articulated and roller chains.

For the full product segment breakdown, consult the dashboard.

II. Shifting Geographies: Asia Gains Ground as Traditional Partners Recede

China and Japan have become the dominant import suppliers

The most striking geographic shift in EU imports has been the growing dominance of Asian suppliers. China's share of EU chain imports rose from €204 million to €354 million (+73.6%), making it by far the largest single origin. Japan similarly surged from €69 million to €126 million (+82.5%). Together, these two countries accounted for the majority of import growth over the decade. Taiwan remained a significant but more volatile supplier (€28M → €24M, −15.5%), with a notably high coefficient of variation (0.36), indicating large year-to-year swings.

Brexit has reshaped EU–UK chain trade flows

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market is clearly visible in the data. UK-origin imports into the EU fell by nearly half (−49.6%), from €37 million to €19 million. On the export side, EU shipments to the UK declined more modestly (−7.4%), from €81 million to €75 million. This asymmetry suggests that UK chain producers have lost preferential access to the EU market, while EU exporters have largely retained their UK customer base — though not without some erosion. The volatility analysis confirms that UK import flows are among the most volatile (CV = 0.54), likely reflecting transitional disruptions.

Export destinations have shifted towards Türkiye and the US, while Indonesia collapsed

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the near-disappearance of EU exports to Indonesia — from €116 million in 2015 to just €5 million in 2025 (−95.5%). This collapse, which occurred largely between 2015 and 2017, may reflect the redirection of orders to Asian manufacturers or changes in Indonesia's domestic capacity. Conversely, exports to Türkiye surged by 142.6% (from €17M to €41M), making it an increasingly important market. The United States remained the largest single export destination throughout the period, with relatively stable flows around €145–147 million, though with significant year-to-year variation (CV = 0.17). Exports to Norway declined sharply from €78 million to €28 million (−64.5%), and a significant price shock was detected in 2023 (abnormality score: 7.2, price shift: +66%).

Import concentration has increased while export markets have diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 2,739 to 3,807 (+39%), crossing into what trade economists typically consider a "moderately concentrated" regime. This reflects China and Japan's growing dominance. By contrast, the export HHI fell from 742 to 648 (−12.7%), indicating a gradual diversification of EU export destinations. The concentration analysis provides further detail on these structural shifts.

III. Production Growth, Specialisation, and Strategic Exposure

EU domestic production has expanded significantly in value

Despite the decline in export volumes, EU domestic production of CN 7315 products grew substantially over the period. Production value rose from €910 million to €1,652 million (+81.6%), while production volume increased from 231,009 tonnes to 286,536 tonnes (+24.0%). The faster growth in value relative to volume implies rising unit production values — consistent with the general inflationary environment and a possible shift towards higher-specification products. This production growth suggests that the fall in exports is not due to deindustrialisation but rather to the reorientation of output towards the domestic market or intra-EU trade.

Germany anchors EU production, while Italy has surged in exports

Germany is by far the largest EU producer and exporter of chain products. In 2025, German exports stood at €439 million, accounting for roughly half of total EU exports and showing remarkable stability (+1.2% over the decade). Italy, however, was the standout performer: Italian exports more than doubled from €53 million to €117 million (+121.2%), reflecting growing competitiveness. Spain and Sweden, by contrast, experienced steep declines — Spain from €187 million to €37 million (−80.4%) and Sweden from €59 million to €21 million (−64%). France also contracted (−38.9%), while Austria and the Netherlands showed modest growth.

On the import side, Germany is also the largest recipient (€149M in 2025, +46%), followed by the Netherlands (€122M, +62%) and France (€71M, +126%). The sharp rise in French imports is noteworthy and may reflect supply chain reconfigurations or increased demand from French industry.

Several EU member states display strong revealed comparative advantage

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Romania (RCA = 2.54), Italy (RCA = 1.68), Czechia (RCA = 1.63), Germany (RCA = 1.53), and Finland (RCA = 1.50) are the most specialised EU producers in this product category. Romania's leading position is notable and may reflect the role of lower-cost Central and Eastern European producers in serving both the EU internal market and export destinations. At the other end of the spectrum, Cyprus, Malta, Ireland, Bulgaria, and Hungary show very low specialisation, with RCA values well below 0.2.

Trade intensity has risen, signalling deeper global integration

The EU's trade intensity in CN 7315 products increased from 46.0% to 68.7% (+49.2%), while export propensity rose from 34.0% to 58.0% (+70.4%). These figures indicate that a growing share of EU production is directed towards international markets, and that the EU chain industry is deeply embedded in global value chains. However, this openness also implies greater exposure to external shocks — as evidenced by the price shocks detected in exports to Norway (2023), China (2020), and the United States (2022).

Conclusion

The EU market for iron or steel chains (CN 7315) underwent significant structural change between 2015 and 2025. While the EU remains a net exporter, its trade surplus has more than halved, driven by a combination of declining export volumes and rapidly growing imports — primarily from China and Japan. Export unit values have risen markedly, suggesting a move up the value chain, but this has not fully compensated for the loss of volume competitiveness in standard segments such as welded link chains. Geographic reorientation has been pronounced: the UK's share has diminished post-Brexit, Indonesia has virtually disappeared as an export market, and Türkiye has emerged as a fast-growing destination. Within the EU, Germany remains the anchor of both production and trade, but Italy's export performance has been the most dynamic. Rising trade intensity and import concentration point to both opportunities and vulnerabilities: the EU chain industry is deeply integrated into global markets but increasingly exposed to supply-side risks from a small number of Asian suppliers. Policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor these trends closely, particularly the growing import reliance on China and Japan, and consider whether diversification strategies or targeted industrial support may be warranted to sustain the EU's competitive position in this strategically relevant industrial segment.