Market evolution: Central heating radiators (CN 732219) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in non-electrically heated central heating radiators of iron (excluding cast iron and steel) under Combined Nomenclature code 732219. Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for this product has undergone a profound structural transformation. What was once a sector in trade surplus became one characterised by a substantial deficit, declining domestic production, and growing import dependence. The analysis draws on trade flows, partner concentration, production volumes, and vulnerability indicators to trace this shift.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Collapse of the EU's Trade Balance

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic reversal of the EU's trade balance in CN 732219. In 2015, the EU recorded a modest surplus of approximately €30 million. By 2025, this had swung to a deficit of roughly €151 million — a change of over 600%.

Exports fell sharply in volume, while prices partially compensated

EU exports of CN 732219 declined from €212.9 million in 2015 to €125.2 million in 2025 (−41.2%). The contraction was even more dramatic in volume terms: exported tonnage fell from 80,906 tonnes to just 28,172 tonnes (−65.2%). However, average export unit values rose from €2,630/t to €4,443/t (+69.0%), suggesting that EU producers increasingly retreated to higher-value segments or that cost inflation pushed prices upward even as volumes collapsed.

Imports grew in both value and volume

On the import side, the trend moved in the opposite direction. Imports rose from €183.0 million to €275.9 million (+50.8%) in value, while tonnage increased from 112,933 to 136,429 tonnes (+20.8%). Import unit values climbed more moderately than export prices — from €1,620/t to €2,023/t (+24.8%) — confirming a persistent and widening price gap between EU-produced goods and foreign supply. This differential reflects both the cost competitiveness of external suppliers and a possible shift in the product mix entering the EU market.

The EU shifted from mild exporter to net importer

The net import reliance indicator encapsulates this transformation. In 2015, the ratio stood at −5.7% (i.e. the EU was a small net exporter). By 2025, it had risen to +8.4%, confirming that the EU now relies on external suppliers to meet a meaningful share of domestic demand.

2. A Reconfigured Partnership Map: Türkiye's Dominance and the Rise of New Suppliers

The shift in the EU's trade balance was accompanied — and partly driven — by a significant restructuring of its partner geography.

Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's primary supplier

In 2015, Türkiye already accounted for €127.0 million of EU imports — roughly 69% of the total. By 2025, this had grown to €218.7 million (+72.1%), with a peak at €264.3 million. Despite this growth, the trade relationship with Türkiye proved volatile: the coefficient of variation on import value was relatively low at 0.14, but the price shock detected in 2022 — a 41% price increase with an abnormality score of 1,908 — was by far the most significant supply-side event in the dataset, reflecting the energy cost surge that year.

China emerged as a fast-growing secondary supplier

Chinese imports surged from €7.6 million in 2015 to €40.6 million in 2025 (+433.4%). China is now the EU's second-largest extra-EU supplier by value, having overtaken traditional partners. This growth was accompanied by higher volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.43), suggesting less stable trade flows.

Traditional European partners lost ground

Several long-standing trade partners experienced sharp declines in their import shares:

The United Kingdom's decline likely reflects post-Brexit trade friction and the reclassification of flows. Switzerland's drop is more difficult to explain without sectoral context but may relate to transit or re-export patterns that shifted.

EU exports to Russia collapsed, while the UK remained the top destination

On the export side, the most dramatic change was the near-total loss of the Russian market. EU exports to Russia fell from €61.8 million to €5.1 million (−91.8%), almost certainly linked to the sanctions regime imposed from 2022 onwards. The United Kingdom remained the largest single export destination at €48.4 million, though this represented a −25.7% decline from 2015. Exports to China also collapsed by 90.6%, from €11.4 million to €1.1 million.

Import concentration increased, reflecting supplier consolidation

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 5,202 to 6,508 (+25.1%). While already in a moderately concentrated range in 2015, the increase signals that the EU became more reliant on a smaller number of supply sources — primarily Türkiye — over the decade. Export concentration, by contrast, remained relatively flat (HHI: 1,954 → 2,003), indicating a more diversified but shrinking customer base.

3. Shrinking Production Capacity and Growing Structural Vulnerability

Behind the trade statistics lies a deeper story of declining EU domestic production.

Production volumes and values fell by around 40%

EU production of CN 732219 products declined from 1.45 billion kg in 2015 to 815 million kg in 2025 (−43.7%). In value terms, output fell from €2.35 billion to €1.40 billion (−40.5%). This contraction outpaced the decline in exports, implying that the EU's own consumption of central heating radiators increasingly shifted towards imported products.

Specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that production and export specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Member States:

Poland and Czechia together account for nearly 34% of EU production, making the sector geographically concentrated. At the other end of the spectrum, countries like Ireland, Denmark, and Greece show near-zero specialisation, indicating negligible domestic capacity.

Trade intensity rose, signalling deepening market integration — but with risk

The trade intensity index — measuring the share of trade relative to total market size — rose from 16.9% to 26.2% (+54.8%). This indicates that the EU market for CN 732219 became significantly more open to international trade over the decade. However, with export propensity essentially flat (11.7% → 11.2%), the increase in trade intensity was driven almost entirely by rising imports — a pattern consistent with growing structural dependence on external supply.

Conclusion

The EU market for central heating radiators under CN 732219 has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production shrank by over 40%, exports to key markets like Russia and China collapsed, and the EU shifted from a small net exporter to a net importer with a €151 million deficit. The import side became increasingly dominated by Türkiye, which now supplies nearly 80% of extra-EU imports by value, while China emerged as a fast-growing secondary source. This concentration — reflected in a rising HHI — creates potential vulnerability to supply shocks, as illustrated by the significant Turkish price shock of 2022. With trade intensity rising and export propensity flat, the EU's integration into global markets for this product is increasingly asymmetric, favouring inbound flows. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to monitor these dynamics closely, particularly in the context of energy transition policies that could either reduce demand for traditional radiators or, conversely, drive replacement cycles that further increase import needs.