Market evolution: Optical fibres and lenses (CN 9001) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN heading 9001, a broad category covering optical fibres and cables, polarising sheets, contact lenses, spectacle lenses, and unmounted optical elements such as prisms and mirrors. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in these products underwent significant structural transformation. While both export and import values grew substantially, volumes actually declined, pointing to a sharp escalation in unit prices. At the same time, the geographic composition of trade shifted markedly—driven in part by Brexit, the rise of China as a supplier, and the growing importance of the United States as an export destination. Domestic production, meanwhile, expanded strongly in both quantity and value, suggesting the EU has reinforced its manufacturing base even as it became slightly more import-reliant.

The general trade overview provides the aggregate context for the analysis below.

1. Rising Values, Falling Volumes: A Decade of Price-Driven Growth

Export and import values grew while physical volumes contracted

The EU's extra-EU exports of CN 9001 rose from €2.32 billion in 2015 to €3.19 billion in 2025, a gain of 37.6%. Imports grew similarly, from €2.48 billion to €3.21 billion (+29.0%). However, over the same period export volumes fell by 16.5% (from 31,089 t to 25,949 t) and import volumes dropped by 19.3% (from 48,615 t to 39,243 t). This divergence between value and volume reflects a pronounced increase in average unit prices.

Unit prices accelerated sharply, especially on the export side

Average export prices rose from €74,564/t in 2015 to €122,923/t in 2025 (+64.9%), while import prices climbed from €51,087/t to €81,664/t (+59.9%). The faster pace of export price appreciation narrowed the EU's historic price gap vis-à-vis imports and contributed to the near-elimination of the trade deficit. The deficit shrank from €165 million in 2015 to just €14.5 million in 2025, an improvement of 91.2%. In some intermediate years (notably around 2022), the EU even briefly recorded a small trade surplus.

The shift toward higher-value product mixes explains the price dynamics

The price increases are partly explained by segment-level shifts. Within product sub-segments, contact lenses (CN 900130) dominate EU exports by value (€1.76 billion in 2025), with unit export prices per tonne rising from €67,135 to €89,798. Optical elements (CN 900190) saw even steeper price inflation on the export side—from €54,458/t to €279,731/t—reflecting the growing weight of high-precision, specialised optics in the EU's export basket. On the import side, spectacle lenses of materials other than glass (CN 900150) remain the largest single import category (€1.22 billion in 2025), with unit prices per tonne rising from €103,589 to €134,134.

2. Geographic Reorientation: China's Rise, Brexit's Disruption, and the US Pivot

The United States became the EU's dominant export market

The most striking geographic shift on the export side was the surge in EU exports to the United States, which grew from €389 million in 2015 to €851 million in 2025 (+118.5%). By 2025, the US accounted for roughly 27% of EU extra-EU exports of CN 9001, up from 17% a decade earlier. This made the US the EU's single largest extra-EU export destination, displacing the United Kingdom. Exports to China also grew dramatically, from €110 million to €314 million (+185.2%), albeit from a lower base.

The partner-level data confirm the structural nature of this reorientation.

Brexit sharply reduced the UK's role as a bilateral trade partner

The United Kingdom's share of EU trade in CN 9001 contracted markedly on both flows. EU imports from the UK fell from €503 million in 2015 to €245 million in 2025 (−51.2%), while exports to the UK declined from €520 million to €339 million (−34.8%). UK trade flows also exhibited the highest volatility among the EU's major partners: the coefficient of variation for imports from the UK stood at 0.64, and for exports at 0.58, both well above those of other key partners. A major price shock was detected in 2021, with an abnormality score of 131.3 on EU exports to the UK and a unit-price shift of +158.5%, coinciding with the post-Brexit trade regime adjustment.

The volatility and shock data provide further detail on these disruptions.

China nearly doubled its share of EU imports, while South Korea's role declined

EU imports from China surged from €342 million in 2015 to €737 million in 2025 (+115.8%), making China the EU's second-largest supplier after the United States (€570 million). Conversely, imports from South Korea fell from €228 million to €92 million (−59.5%). Imports from Thailand grew by 62.7% (from €333 million to €541 million), reflecting the broader trend of supply-chain diversification in Asia. These shifts suggest that China has been gaining market share in optics and photonics components, possibly benefiting from scale advantages in spectacle lenses and optical elements.

Concentration edged higher on the import side

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,166 in 2015 to 1,313 in 2025 (+12.6%), indicating a moderate increase in supplier concentration. The concentration analysis shows that export concentration remained broadly stable (HHI around 1,240–1,253). The rising import HHI reflects the growing weight of China and, to a lesser extent, Thailand and the US, partially offsetting the declining shares of the UK and South Korea.

3. Domestic Production Surged as the EU Reinforced Its Manufacturing Base

EU production volumes nearly quadrupled over the decade

EU domestic production volumes for CN 9001 grew from 1.47 billion kg in 2015 to 5.15 billion kg in 2025, an increase of 249.2%. Production value rose more modestly—from €3.77 billion to €6.34 billion (+68.2%). The much faster growth in quantity than in value implies a decline in average production unit values, suggesting that a significant share of the expansion was in lower-unit-value segments such as optical fibres and cables (CN 900110), where global demand for telecommunications infrastructure has been strong.

Germany and Ireland dominate intra-EU production and exports

Germany was the EU's largest extra-EU importer (€1.09 billion in 2025, up from €740 million) and the second-largest exporter (€1.06 billion, up from €707 million). Ireland led EU exports with €1.06 billion in 2025, driven primarily by contact lens manufacturing—consistent with Ireland's well-known concentration of medical-device and pharmaceutical multinationals. Among the top EU exporters, Denmark showed the most dramatic growth (+262.9%, from €33 million to €120 million), followed by Italy (+84.2%).

Specialisation patterns reveal distinct national niches

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Latvia (RSCA: 0.46), Ireland (0.44), and Czechia (0.32) were the most specialised EU exporters in CN 9001, while large economies like Spain (−0.69), Austria (−0.76), and Finland (−0.79) were net importers with negative specialisation scores. This pattern is consistent with a sector where mid-sized Central European and Irish producers have carved out niche positions, while larger Southern and Northern European economies are primarily consumers.

The EU's export propensity rose, but so did import reliance

The EU's net import reliance edged up from 1.1% in 2015 to 5.5% in 2025, having peaked at 12.4% in an intermediate year. Meanwhile, export propensity (exports as a share of domestic production) rose from 28.0% to 46.7% (+67.1%), and trade intensity (total extra-EU trade relative to production) increased from 44.2% to 65.1% (+47.3%). These trends indicate that while the EU's optics sector became more export-oriented and globally integrated, it also grew somewhat more dependent on extra-EU supply chains, particularly from China and Southeast Asia.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 9001 over 2015–2025 tells a story of rising values, declining volumes, and profound geographic reorientation. Unit prices surged across virtually all sub-segments, lifting trade values even as physical flows contracted. The EU's trade balance moved from a modest deficit to near-parity, supported by strong growth in high-value exports of optical elements and contact lenses, particularly to the United States and China. At the same time, Brexit sharply reduced the UK's role as a bilateral partner, while China consolidated its position as the EU's fastest-growing import source. Domestic production expanded dramatically—especially in quantity—reinforcing the EU's manufacturing base, though the rising export propensity and trade intensity suggest increasing integration into global value chains. The concentration of imports has edged upward, and the EU's net import reliance, while still modest, has become positive, warranting continued attention to supply-chain resilience in this strategically important sector.