Market evolution: Optical fibres (CN 900110) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in optical fibres, optical fibre bundles and cables (excluding individually sheathed fibres of heading 8544) under Combined Nomenclature code 900110 over the period 2015–2025. The product sits at the heart of telecommunications infrastructure and has been subject to sustained demand growth driven by fibre-to-the-home rollouts, 5G backhaul needs, and data-centre expansion across the EU and globally.
Over the decade, the EU's trade profile for this product has undergone a structural transformation. Total exports more than doubled in value, rising from €173.5 million in 2015 to €382.9 million in 2025 (+120.8%), while imports grew more moderately from €282.5 million to €364.3 million (+29.0%). As a result, the EU's trade balance swung from a deficit of €109.0 million in 2015 to a small surplus of €18.7 million in 2025. Underlying this shift are significant changes in partner geography, EU production capacity, and the price dynamics of different sub-segments.
From chronic deficit to structural balance: the EU's export-led transformation
Export value growth outpaced imports by a wide margin
Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of optical fibres grew from €173.5 million to €382.9 million, a cumulative increase of 120.8%. Over the same period, imports rose from €282.5 million to €364.3 million (+29.0%). The trade balance thus improved by over €127 million, moving from a deficit of €109.0 million to a near-parity surplus of €18.7 million. The peak import year was likely 2022, when imports reached approximately €544.2 million, before retreating sharply in 2023–2025.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (€M) | 173.5 | 382.9 | +120.8% |
| Imports (€M) | 282.5 | 364.3 | +29.0% |
| Balance (€M) | −109.0 | +18.7 | +117.1% |
Unit-price divergence reveals a premium shift in EU exports
A key driver of the export value surge was not only volume growth but a sustained increase in export unit values. EU export prices rose from €129,526/t in 2015 to €180,013/t in 2025 (+39.0%), having peaked at €228,554/t around 2021–2022. By contrast, import unit prices remained comparatively flat, moving from €69,152/t to €71,800/t (+3.8%). This widening price gap suggests that the EU increasingly specialised in higher-value-added optical fibre products, while importing lower-priced, commodity-grade fibres — largely from Asian suppliers.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export price (€/t) | 129,526 | 180,013 | +39.0% |
| Import price (€/t) | 69,152 | 71,800 | +3.8% |
| Export volume (t) | 1,337 | 2,124 | +58.9% |
| Import volume (t) | 4,082 | 5,071 | +24.2% |
The dominant sub-segment is standard optical fibres and cables
Virtually all trade under CN 900110 is concentrated in sub-heading 90011090 (optical fibres, bundles and cables excluding image conductor cables). The image conductor cable sub-segment (90011010) accounts for a marginal share. In 2025, imports of 90011090 were valued at €344.6 million (94.6% of total imports) and exports at €376.1 million (98.2% of total exports). Notably, import prices for 90011010 image conductor cables fell dramatically from €164,509/t in 2015 to €53,238/t in 2025, potentially reflecting commoditisation or a shift in the product mix within this niche.
A reconfiguration of trade partners: China's import surge and US export dominance
China became the EU's fastest-growing import supplier
The most striking shift on the import side was the rapid rise of China. EU imports from China grew from €32.4 million in 2015 to €110.4 million in 2025, an increase of 241.1%. China thus overtook the United States (€106.8 million in 2025, down from €117.0 million, −8.7%) to become the single largest extra-EU supplier by value. The Republic of Korea (+197.1%) and Tunisia (from virtually zero to €2.4 million) also emerged as growing suppliers, while the United Kingdom's share collapsed by 59.2%, consistent with the trade disruption following Brexit.
| Import partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 32.4 | 110.4 | +241.1% |
| United States | 117.0 | 106.8 | −8.7% |
| Japan | 53.0 | 54.2 | +2.4% |
| India | 36.4 | 34.1 | −6.3% |
| United Kingdom | 24.1 | 9.8 | −59.2% |
| Korea, Republic of | 4.9 | 14.6 | +197.1% |
The United States became the EU's dominant export market
On the export side, the United States emerged as by far the largest destination. EU exports to the US grew from €41.0 million in 2015 to €149.7 million in 2025 (+264.9%), accounting for nearly 39% of total extra-EU exports by value. China also remained a significant market (€53.6 million, +58.1%), while exports to Türkiye (+100.4%) and Australia (+75.6%) grew meaningfully. The concentration of EU exports towards the US market contributed to a rise in the export-side Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) from 1,136 in 2015 to 1,867 in 2025 (+64.3%), signalling increasing partner concentration. Import-side concentration, by contrast, declined modestly (HHI from 2,450 to 2,131, −13.0%), reflecting China's diversification of the supplier base.
Denmark, Poland and Germany drove the EU's export surge from within
The expansion of EU exports was not evenly distributed across Member States. Denmark's exports grew from €28.1 million to €98.9 million (+251.5%), making it the largest EU exporter by 2025, likely reflecting capacity investments by major fibre producers. Poland's exports surged from just €124,000 to €92.2 million — an extraordinary increase suggesting the commissioning of major production facilities on Polish territory. Germany, the traditional manufacturing base, grew more steadily from €58.0 million to €80.9 million (+39.4%). By contrast, Italy (−77.4%) and Finland (−68.1%) saw their export positions erode substantially. On the import side, Romania's inward purchases exploded from €51,000 to €56.1 million, pointing to rapid growth in domestic fibre-optic network construction and cable assembly.
Domestic production expansion reshapes the EU's strategic position
EU production capacity grew dramatically
The most transformative structural development over the period was the expansion of EU domestic production. Production volumes (reported in kg) grew from 2.4 million kg in 2015 to 40.0 million kg in 2025, with a peak of 77.4 million kg in an intermediate year. Production value rose from €183.5 million to €760.0 million (+314.2%), peaking at €810.0 million. This expansion reflects large-scale investments in optical fibre drawing and cabling capacity within the EU, likely driven by the EU's strategic push for digital infrastructure sovereignty and the momentum of national broadband plans.
Net import reliance fluctuated but ended higher than at the start
Despite the production surge, the EU's net import reliance did not follow a simple downward trajectory. It stood at just 1.2% in 2015, peaked at 31.7% in an intermediate year (likely around 2022 when imports surged), and settled at 13.6% in 2025. The volatility of this indicator reflects the lumpy nature of capacity additions and the time lag between investment decisions and production ramp-up. The peak likely coincided with a period of intense network build-out when EU capacity could not yet meet demand.
Export propensity declined as domestic absorption grew
A notable consequence of the production expansion was a decline in export propensity — the share of EU production that is exported. This fell from 61.9% in 2015 to 34.5% in 2025 (−44.3%). Similarly, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) declined from 76.6% to 56.4%. This indicates that while the EU remained a significant exporter in absolute terms, a growing share of production was absorbed by the internal market to meet expanding domestic demand for fibre-optic infrastructure. In effect, the EU has been replacing import dependency with domestic supply — a pattern consistent with industrial policy objectives around digital autonomy.
| Vulnerability indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance (%) | 1.2 | 13.6 | +1,037.8% |
| Trade intensity (%) | 76.6 | 56.4 | −26.4% |
| Export propensity (%) | 61.9 | 34.5 | −44.3% |
Specialisation patterns reveal emerging production hubs
Analysis of revealed comparative advantage in 2025 shows that Latvia (RSCA 0.92), Romania (0.34), Poland (0.32), France (0.26) and the Netherlands (0.20) are the most specialised EU exporters in optical fibres. While Latvia's specialisation is based on a very small absolute share, the positioning of Poland and Romania — both of which saw explosive trade growth over the period — confirms the emergence of Central and Eastern European production and re-export hubs, likely linked to foreign direct investment in manufacturing capacity.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in optical fibres (CN 900110) underwent a profound structural shift between 2015 and 2025. A chronic trade deficit gave way to near-balance, powered by export value growth of 121% against more moderate import growth of 29%. This transformation was underpinned by a massive expansion of EU production capacity — both in volume and in the value-added profile of output, as evidenced by the widening gap between export and import unit prices.
The partner landscape was reshaped significantly. China emerged as the EU's largest import supplier, overtaking the United States, while the US became the overwhelmingly dominant export destination, creating new concentration risks on the export side. Within the EU, Denmark, Poland and Germany consolidated their positions as leading exporters, while Italy and Finland saw sharp declines — pointing to a geographic reorganisation of European production capacity.
Despite the production surge, the EU's vulnerability indicators remain mixed. Net import reliance, while lower than its 2022 peak, ended the period above its 2015 starting point, and the declining export propensity suggests that much of the new capacity serves the internal market rather than reinforcing the EU's global export position. Going forward, the interplay between continued domestic demand growth, competitive pressure from Chinese suppliers, and the concentration of EU exports in the US market will be the key dynamics to monitor.