Market evolution: Optical fibres (CN 90011090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in optical fibres, optical fibre bundles and cables (excluding individually sheathed fibres of heading 8544 and image conductor cables) under Combined Nomenclature code 90011090 over the period 2015–2025. The decade witnessed a remarkable transformation: the EU evolved from a net importer with a trade deficit of €99.4 million in 2015 to a net exporter posting a surplus of €31.5 million by 2025. This shift was driven by an extraordinary expansion in EU production capacity and a sharp acceleration in export growth, particularly to the United States. At the same time, the European supply landscape underwent significant reconfiguration, with China emerging as a dominant import source. These structural changes carry important implications for the EU's strategic autonomy in a technology critical to telecommunications infrastructure and the digital economy.

Product scope and definitions can be explored on the trade dashboard.

1. A Domestic Production Boom That Reversed the EU's Trade Position

The most striking development in the EU optical fibre market over the past decade has been a dramatic scale-up in domestic production, which fundamentally altered the Union's trade balance.

EU production surged by over 1,500 % in volume

EU production of optical fibres and related products rose from 2.4 million kg in 2015 to 40.0 million kg in 2025 — an increase of 1,566.7 %. In value terms, production grew from €183.5 million to €760.0 million (+314.2 %), with peak output reaching an estimated 77.4 million kg and €810 million in intermediate years (production volumes). This expansion far outpaced the growth in trade volumes, suggesting that a substantial share of new capacity was oriented toward both domestic absorption and export markets.

Exports more than doubled while imports grew only modestly

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 90011090 grew from €167.5 million to €376.1 million (+124.5 %) in value and from 1,290 tonnes to 2,096 tonnes (+62.5 %) in volume. Over the same period, imports rose from €267.0 million to €344.6 million (+29.1 %) in value and from 3,988 tonnes to 4,704 tonnes (+17.9 %) in volume. The asymmetry is clear: export growth in both value and volume terms substantially outstripped import growth (trade overview).

The EU moved from trade deficit to trade surplus

The trade balance shifted from a deficit of €99.4 million in 2015 to a surplus of €31.5 million by 2025, representing a 131.7 % improvement. The deficit was at its widest at approximately €245 million in an intermediate year before narrowing and ultimately reversing. This turnaround is a direct consequence of the production boom: expanded capacity allowed the EU to both reduce import dependency and significantly scale up shipments abroad.

A persistent unit-value gap reveals the EU's position in the value chain

Throughout the period, EU export prices per tonne consistently exceeded import prices. In 2025, the average export price was €179,235/t compared to an import price of €73,251/t — a ratio of roughly 2.4:1. This gap indicates that the EU tends to export higher-value-added, more specialised optical fibre products while importing more commoditised or standard-grade goods. The premium widened slightly over the period, with export prices rising 38.2 % against only 9.5 % for imports, suggesting the EU has moved further upmarket in its export profile.

2. Shifting Geographic Patterns: China Rises in Supply, the US Dominates as a Destination

The geographic structure of EU trade in optical fibres underwent significant rebalancing over the decade, with pronounced changes on both the import and export sides.

China became the EU's largest import source

China's share of EU optical fibre imports grew from €31.8 million in 2015 to €109.0 million in 2025, a staggering increase of 242.4 %. China overtook the United States (€104.7 million, −8.4 %), Japan (€43.3 million, −5.9 %), and India (€32.0 million, −11.1 %) to become the single largest external supplier by value. South Korea also grew substantially, from €4.5 million to €14.6 million (+222.8 %), further reinforcing Asia's dominant role in EU supply (partners).

The UK's decline as an import source (−59.5 %) is likely linked to post-Brexit trade frictions and supply-chain reorientation. Tunisia, though starting from a negligible base (€698), emerged as a notable supplier at €1.8 million, albeit with extremely high volatility (coefficient of variation of 2.07), indicating an irregular and unreliable trade pattern.

The United States became the EU's overwhelmingly dominant export market

EU exports to the United States surged from €38.8 million in 2015 to €147.3 million in 2025, an increase of 280.0 %. By 2025, the US accounted for nearly 39 % of all EU exports by value — up from roughly 23 % a decade earlier. This concentration of exports in a single destination is a defining feature of the period. Other notable export partners include China (€52.9 million, +58.9 %), Switzerland (€16.9 million, +49.1 %), and the UK (€13.6 million, +8.0 %). Australia (€9.2 million, +79.8 %) and Türkiye (€8.9 million, +92.2 %) also grew as secondary markets (partners).

Import sourcing diversified while export destination concentration increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined from 2,526 to 2,228 (−11.8 %), reflecting a moderate diversification of the EU's supplier base. In contrast, the export-side HHI rose from 1,129 to 1,875 (+66.1 %), indicating that exports have become significantly more concentrated — principally due to the dominance of the US market (concentration). While the EU succeeded in broadening its import options, it became substantially more reliant on a narrow set of export destinations, raising potential vulnerability to demand shocks or trade-policy changes in those markets.

Within the EU, production and export capabilities shifted eastward

Among EU Member States, Poland emerged as a major exporter, growing from €0.1 million to €92.3 million — a transformation that elevated it to the Union's second-largest exporter behind Denmark (€98.4 million, up from €28.1 million, +250.2 %). Germany remained the top exporter at €79.4 million (+45.8 %). On the import side, Romania grew from virtually zero to €56.1 million, and Italy's imports rose from €11.0 million to €35.9 million (+226.9 %), while France's imports fell by 44.8 % to €29.2 million (reporters). These shifts suggest that optical fibre manufacturing and distribution capacity has expanded in Central and Eastern Europe, consistent with broader trends in EU industrial decentralisation.

3. Autonomy Gains Mask Persistent Vulnerabilities and Supply-Side Risks

Despite the headline improvement in the trade balance, deeper analysis of structural indicators reveals a more nuanced picture regarding the EU's strategic position in this sector.

Net import reliance increased markedly despite the trade surplus

The EU's net import reliance rose from 1.2 % in 2015 to 13.6 % in 2025 (+1,037.8 %), having peaked at 31.7 % in an intermediate year. This indicator captures the structural relationship between imports, exports, and domestic production, and its increase suggests that while production expanded dramatically, the EU's consumption of optical fibres grew even faster, keeping external supply an important component of the overall market. The metric remains well below its peak but the trajectory over the decade signals persistent import dependency for certain product grades or applications.

Trade intensity and export propensity both declined substantially

The EU's trade intensity — the share of total trade (exports plus imports) relative to production — fell from 76.6 % to 56.4 % (−26.4 %), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) declined from 61.9 % to 34.5 % (−44.3 %). The latter is identified as the most salient indicator, with a vulnerability salience score of 59.8 compared to 32.8 for trade intensity. These declines are not necessarily negative: they largely reflect the explosive growth of domestic production. However, they indicate that the EU's optical fibre sector is becoming more oriented toward internal consumption and less toward export markets — a pattern consistent with rising domestic demand driven by 5G rollout, data-centre expansion, and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) broadband deployment across Europe.

Export concentration on the US market creates strategic exposure

As noted, the US absorbed nearly 39 % of EU optical fibre exports by value in 2025, and the export HHI reached 1,875 — a level that, while not extreme, represents a sharp increase from 1,129 in 2015. Should US demand soften, tariffs increase, or domestic US production substitute for EU imports, the consequences for European exporters would be significant. The coefficient of variation for US-bound exports stands at 1.06, indicating moderate but meaningful year-to-year volatility (volatility).

China's dual role as supplier and customer introduces interdependence

China simultaneously grew to become the EU's largest import source (+242.4 %) and third-largest export destination (+58.9 %). This dual role creates a deep bilateral interdependence. The volatility of EU-China import flows is elevated (CV of 0.55), and China's import price to the EU is lower than the EU's export price to China, reflecting differences in product positioning. A disruption to EU-China trade — whether through policy measures, geopolitical tensions, or supply-chain rerouting — would have significant repercussions on both sides.

Isolated price shocks in smaller markets signal underlying fragility

The shock detection analysis identified three notable events: a massive price spike in exports to Argentina in 2021 (+1,642 % shift, abnormality score of 444), an extreme price anomaly in exports to Iraq in 2019 (+8,853 % shift, abnormality 369), and a significant price increase in imports from India in 2022 (+38 % shift, abnormality 66.2) (supply shocks). While these events affected relatively small trade flows (Argentina's share of export value peaked at 0.6 %, Iraq at 0.4 %), they illustrate the extreme price sensitivity of optical fibre trade in less-established markets. The India import shock, affecting a 19.2 % value share, is more consequential and may reflect supply-chain disruptions or pricing pressures in the post-pandemic period.

Specialisation data confirms a geographically concentrated production base

In 2025, the most specialised EU producers in optical fibres were Latvia (RSCA of 0.93, though accounting for only 0.3 % of total EU trade), Romania (RSCA 0.35), Poland (0.33), France (0.25), and Denmark (0.20) (specialisation). Several large EU economies — including Ireland, Luxembourg, and Cyprus — show virtually no specialisation in this product. This concentration implies that supply resilience depends heavily on the industrial policies and competitive positions of a handful of Member States.

Conclusion

The EU optical fibre market (CN 90011090) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. A near-seventeen-fold increase in production volume enabled the Union to shift from a €99.4 million trade deficit to a €31.5 million surplus, while exports more than doubled in value. These are remarkable achievements that reflect substantial industrial investment, likely spurred by accelerating demand for fibre-optic infrastructure across Europe and globally.

However, the surface-level success conceals structural tensions. The EU's export base has become dangerously concentrated on the United States, import reliance remains elevated, and China's dominant and growing role as a supplier — even as it serves as a key export market — creates a complex web of interdependence. Meanwhile, the geographic concentration of production capacity within the EU, and the declining share of output directed toward exports, suggest that the sector's resilience to external shocks may be more limited than the headline trade surplus implies.

Policymakers should monitor the evolving US-centricity of EU exports, the deepening reliance on Chinese supply, and the capacity of emerging EU production hubs (notably Poland, Romania, and Denmark) to sustain the sector's growth trajectory. The optical fibre market sits at the intersection of trade policy, digital infrastructure strategy, and industrial sovereignty — making it a critical sector to watch in the years ahead.