Market evolution: Optical elements (CN 900190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in optical elements classified under Combined Nomenclature code 900190 — covering unmounted lenses, prisms, mirrors and other optical elements of any material (excluding unworked glass, contact lenses and spectacle lenses). The analysis spans the period 2015–2025, using annual data on EU trade flows with non-EU countries.

The decade reveals a market undergoing deep structural transformation. While trade values rose substantially on both the import and export sides, physical volumes moved in the opposite direction — a divergence that points to a marked upmarket shift in the product mix. Meanwhile, the geography of EU trade has been dramatically reconfigured, with China emerging as the dominant partner for both imports and exports, displacing established players such as South Korea and Japan. At the same time, EU domestic production has more than quadrupled in value, and the bloc's net import reliance has declined, suggesting a degree of strategic repositioning in this critical segment of the optics supply chain.

1. A decoupling of value and volume: the premiumisation of EU optical trade

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the radical divergence between trade values and physical volumes on both the import and export sides. While monetary flows expanded strongly, tonnes traded fell significantly — pointing to a fundamental shift in the nature of the products crossing EU borders.

1.1. Export values rose 72% even as tonnage fell by two-thirds

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of optical elements under CN 900190 grew from €334.6 million to €576.1 million, a gain of 72.2%. Yet over the same period, export volumes contracted sharply — from 6,128 tonnes to just 2,053 tonnes, a decline of 66.5%. The implied unit export price consequently surged from approximately €54,458 per tonne to €279,731 per tonne, an increase of 413.7%. This is not inflation; it is a structural shift toward far higher-value optical components.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2. Import prices doubled while volumes declined by 27%

The same pattern is visible on the import side, though less dramatically. EU imports rose from €620.8 million to €915.0 million (+47.4%), while import volumes fell from 21,641 tonnes to 15,791 tonnes (−27.0%). The unit import price nearly doubled, climbing from €28,650 per tonne to €57,877 per tonne (+102.0%). Imports thus underwent a comparable, if somewhat more moderate, value-volume decoupling — with volumes declining less steeply than exports, and unit prices rising less explosively.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.3. The widening price gap signals a qualitative divergence in traded products

A notable feature is that EU export prices in 2025 (€279,731/t) are nearly five times higher than import prices (€57,877/t). In 2015, the ratio was roughly 1.9:1. This widening gap suggests that the EU increasingly exports highly specialised, precision optical components — likely destined for semiconductor lithography, aerospace, defence, and medical imaging — while importing a broader mix that includes higher-volume, lower-unit-cost components. The EU's competitive niche in this product line appears to have sharpened considerably over the decade, concentrating on the most technologically demanding segments.

2. China's ascent and the reshaping of the EU's optical trade geography

Behind the aggregate numbers lies a dramatic reorientation of the EU's trading relationships. China has emerged as the single most important partner for EU trade in optical elements, displacing South Korea on the import side and converging with the United States on the export side. Several smaller players have also seen striking shifts, while concentration has increased on both trade flows.

2.1. China displaced South Korea as the EU's leading import source

In 2015, South Korea was the EU's largest supplier of optical elements, with imports worth €152.5 million, followed by the United States (€129.7 million) and China (€105.5 million). By 2025, the ranking had been upended. Chinese exports to the EU surged to €320.8 million (+203.9%), making China by far the leading supplier. Meanwhile, South Korean exports to the EU collapsed to €54.6 million (−64.2%). The United States maintained a steady presence, rising to €194.4 million (+49.9%), but was overtaken by China.

Source: Top partners by value — imports

2.2. The United States and China became the EU's twin export anchors

On the export side, the United States remained the EU's largest extra-EU destination, growing from €102.0 million to €191.3 million (+87.6%). However, the most dramatic growth was in exports to China, which quadrupled from €25.0 million to €102.0 million (+308.2%). Together, these two markets now absorb over half of the EU's extra-EU optical element exports. Japan, formerly a significant destination at €31.5 million, declined to €17.3 million (−45.3%), while the United Kingdom grew to €34.0 million (+61.9%) and Mexico emerged as a notable new market at €5.7 million (+176.5%).

Source: Top partners by value — exports

2.3. Emerging suppliers rose from near-zero baselines, while trade concentration intensified

Several smaller suppliers recorded extraordinary growth from very low starting points. Vietnam's exports to the EU grew from €2.1 million to €12.0 million (+474.8%), and Serbia's rose from a negligible €26,000 to €6.2 million — a percentage increase of 23,864%, reflecting the rapid build-up of optical manufacturing capacity in Central and Southeast Europe. At the same time, Hong Kong's role collapsed (−72.7%), consistent with the broader trend of manufacturing migrating from Hong Kong to mainland China and Southeast Asia.

These shifts have intensified trade concentration. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,585 to 1,937 (+22.2%), and from 1,341 to 1,720 (+28.2%) for exports — indicating that trade has become more concentrated among fewer partners, with China's dominance being the primary driver.

2.4. Several export routes proved highly volatile

The volatility analysis reveals significant instability in certain trade corridors. Exports to Turkey showed the highest coefficient of variation (1.56), while imports from Serbia exhibited a CV of 1.41 — both reflecting the lumpiness of trade flows with smaller or newer partners. Among major partners, imports from Taiwan (CV 0.79) and exports to South Korea (CV 0.75) were notably volatile.

Three shock events stand out:

• Japan (exports, 2022): A price shock with a +178.1% shift and an abnormality score of 45.4, affecting 8.7% of export value. This likely reflects the reclassification or surging demand for specialised optical components used in semiconductor equipment.
• Turkey (exports, 2018): A +793.0% price shift, though from a small base (2.1% of export value).
• South Korea (exports, 2017): A +295.5% price shift, affecting 11.3% of export value — coinciding with the peak of Korean semiconductor and display investment cycles.

3. EU production surge and improving strategic positioning

While trade data reveals a market increasingly oriented toward high-value exchanges, the EU's own production capacity has expanded dramatically. Combined with declining net import reliance and falling trade intensity, these trends point to a European optical sector that is both growing and becoming more self-sufficient.

3.1. EU production value more than quintupled over the decade

According to PRODCOM production data, EU production of optical elements (mapped to PRODCOM code 26.70.21.53) grew from €243.1 million in 2015 to €1,160.0 million in 2025 — an increase of 377.2%. Production volumes also grew significantly, from 754,348 kg to 1,745,087 kg (+131.3%). The fact that value growth far outpaced volume growth mirrors the premiumisation trend observed in trade data, and confirms that the EU's domestic industry has been moving strongly upmarket.

Source: Production volumes

3.2. Germany anchors the EU's optical sector, with smaller Member States carving niches

In 2025, Germany dominated EU exports with €344.7 million (up from €235.4 million in 2015), and accounted for €438.0 million in imports (up from €276.3 million). Germany's revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.35 and RCA of 2.1 confirm a clear specialisation in this product line, consistent with its leading position in precision optics and photonics.

Several smaller Member States recorded striking export growth from lower bases:

Source: Top reporters by value — exports

The specialisation analysis reveals that Bulgaria (RSCA 0.72), Lithuania (0.66), and Latvia (0.52) are the most specialised EU exporters in optical elements relative to their overall trade profiles — suggesting that niche clusters have emerged in the Baltic and Southeast European regions, potentially linked to foreign direct investment in optical manufacturing.

3.3. Net import reliance declined, pointing to improved strategic autonomy

The EU's net import reliance — defined as (imports − exports) / production — fell from 29.3% in 2015 to 26.1% in 2025 (−10.9%). The trajectory was not linear: the indicator peaked at 53.4% in an intermediate year before declining. The current level indicates that the EU still depends on external suppliers for roughly a quarter of its optical element needs, but the trend is toward reduced dependence.

Source: Net import reliance, Trade intensity, Export propensity

Both trade intensity and export propensity also declined over the period, meaning that a larger share of the EU's optical element output is now absorbed domestically rather than traded internationally. This could reflect both growing intra-EU demand (e.g., from the semiconductor, defence, and automotive sectors) and the effects of reshoring or capacity expansion within the bloc.

Conclusion

The EU trade landscape for optical elements (CN 900190) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three defining dynamics emerge from the data:

1. Premiumisation. Trade values have grown substantially while volumes have declined, and unit prices — especially on the export side — have surged by over 400%. The EU has firmly positioned itself at the high end of the global optical value chain, exporting components at roughly five times the price it pays for imports.

2. China-centred reconfiguration. China has become the EU's largest import supplier (surpassing South Korea) and its second-largest export market (approaching the United States). This bilateral deepening, while commercially significant, also implies increased strategic exposure to a single partner — a concentration risk highlighted by the rising HHI on both trade flows.

3. Domestic capacity growth. EU production of optical elements has grown nearly fivefold in value, net import reliance has declined, and several smaller Member States have emerged as specialised exporters. Germany remains the anchor, but the geographic breadth of the EU's optical manufacturing base is widening.

Looking ahead, the sector's trajectory will likely be shaped by three forces: the global semiconductor investment cycle (which drives demand for precision optics), EU strategic autonomy policies (which may further encourage domestic production), and the evolving EU-China trade relationship (given China's central role on both sides of the balance). The data suggest a European optical sector that is increasingly competitive in high-value niches — but one whose supply chains remain concentrated and whose exposure to geopolitical risk warrants continued attention.