Market evolution: Photographic laboratory equipment (CN 9010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 9010 covers a broad category of photographic and cinematographic laboratory equipment, including automatic film-processing machines, negatoscopes, projection screens, and associated parts and accessories. Once centred on analogue film processing, the product scope has evolved with the digital transition: while legacy film-processing subcategories have contracted, demand for projection screens and specialised laboratory accessories persists across medical imaging, entertainment, and industrial applications.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's external trade in this product class underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc remained a net exporter throughout, yet its trade surplus shrank by more than half—from €37.0 million to €18.2 million. Behind this headline figure lie three concurrent dynamics: a structural shift from volume to higher unit values, a dramatic re-orientation of trade partners, and a sharp contraction in domestic production volumes that is eroding the EU's long-standing competitive position.

1. From quantity to value: a unit-price transformation masks declining volumes

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 9010 is the divergence between volume and value trends. Both exports and imports tell the same story: physical quantities have fallen or stagnated, while unit values have risen, partially cushioning the revenue impact.

1.1 Export volumes halved, but rising prices sustained revenue

EU exports of CN 9010 goods fell from 2,489 tonnes in 2015 to just 1,289 tonnes in 2025—a decline of 48.2%. Over the same span, the average export price nearly doubled, rising from €35,278 per tonne to €56,044 per tonne (+58.9%). As a result, the overall export value contracted by a more modest 17.7%, from €87.8 million to €72.3 million.

This pattern suggests that the EU has been shifting its export mix toward higher-value-added products—likely premium projection screens and specialised laboratory apparatus—while lower-value commodity segments (notably parts and accessories, and automatic film-processing equipment) have seen steep volume declines.

1.2 Import volumes grew, but price deflation limited value gains

On the import side, the dynamics were reversed. Physical import volumes rose 17.5%, from 4,943 tonnes to 5,808 tonnes, yet the average import price fell 9.5%, from €10,288/t to €9,310/t. The net effect was a modest 6.3% increase in import value, from €50.9 million to €54.1 million.

The persistently low import unit price—roughly one-sixth of the export unit price—indicates that imports are dominated by lower-cost, higher-volume goods. The product segment data confirms this: projection screens (901060) accounted for 5,333 of the 5,808 tonnes imported in 2025 (91.8% by weight), with an average price of just €7,798/t. By contrast, the niche subcategory of automatic film-processing equipment (901010) saw imports plunge from 339 tonnes to 44 tonnes (−87%), reflecting the terminal decline of analogue film.

1.3 The trade surplus narrowed as volumes diverged

Because export volumes fell much faster than import volumes rose, the EU's trade balance contracted sharply—from a surplus of €37.0 million in 2015 to €18.2 million in 2025 (−50.7%). The net import reliance moved from −9.5% (indicating a comfortable net-exporter status) to nearly zero at −0.3%. The EU's export propensity also declined from 77.3% to 69.1%, while trade intensity edged down from 86.6% to 81.7%, suggesting a gradual decoupling of this sector from international markets.

2. A market in geographic flux: rising concentration and shifting partners

The period 2015–2025 witnessed a pronounced re-orientation of EU trade partners for CN 9010. On both the import and export sides, the market became substantially more concentrated, as several traditional partners lost ground to a small number of dominant players.

2.1 China's dominance of EU imports doubled

China was already the EU's largest import source in 2015 at €19.3 million. By 2025, that figure had more than doubled to €39.7 million (+105.2%), driven by surging shipments of projection screens and other lower-cost laboratory equipment. China's share of total EU imports thus rose from roughly 38% to approximately 73%.

Meanwhile, nearly every other major import partner experienced steep declines:

The collapse in UK imports (−75.6%) is likely linked to post-Brexit trade friction and regulatory divergence since 2020. The declines in Switzerland and Japan may reflect broader shifts in global manufacturing footprints, with production migrating to lower-cost Asian locations.

2.2 Export markets: the US gained, Russia and China lost

On the export side, the United States consolidated its position as the EU's top customer, growing from €14.3 million to €27.0 million (+89.5%). This likely reflects strong US demand for high-end European projection and imaging equipment, including for cinema, medical, and industrial applications.

The near-collapse of exports to Russia (−90.1%) is the sharpest decline among all partners and is almost certainly a consequence of EU sanctions imposed following 2022. The decline in exports to China (−58.4%) likely reflects China's growing domestic production capacity in this segment, reducing its need for European equipment.

2.3 Import concentration intensified dramatically

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value more than doubled, rising from 2,330 to 5,619 (+141%). This shift from a moderately concentrated market to a highly concentrated one is almost entirely attributable to China's growing dominance. For the EU, this increased concentration implies greater supply-chain vulnerability: any disruption to Chinese exports—whether from tariffs, logistics bottlenecks, or geopolitical tensions—would have an outsized impact on EU availability of projection screens and related equipment.

Export concentration also rose, though from a lower base: the HHI increased from 756 to 1,743 (+131%), reflecting the growing importance of the US as an export destination.

3. Production collapse and the erosion of EU competitiveness

Perhaps the most consequential trend in the CN 9010 market is the dramatic decline in EU domestic production, which signals a structural shift in the EU's industrial capacity in this sector.

3.1 Production volumes fell by 88% in a decade

EU production of CN 9010 goods (measured by PRODCOM in number of items) plunged from approximately 579,000 units in 2015 to just 69,439 units in 2025—a staggering 88% decline. Over the same period, production value fell by a more moderate 12.5%, from €462 million to €404 million, again indicating a shift toward higher-value, lower-volume output.

The divergence between volume and value implies that remaining EU production is concentrated in high-margin, specialised equipment—consistent with the broader European industrial strategy of moving up the value chain. However, the sheer scale of the volume decline suggests that entire product lines (particularly analogue film-processing equipment and standard projection screens) have been offshored or discontinued.

3.2 Specialisation reveals a fragmented EU landscape

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) shows that EU member states exhibit markedly different degrees of specialisation in CN 9010:

Austria and Denmark stand out as specialised exporters, consistent with their roles as hosts to niche manufacturers of projection systems and medical imaging equipment. However, the trade data also reveals that Denmark's exports collapsed from €15.8 million to €3.5 million (−77.9%) over the period, suggesting that even specialised producers faced significant headwinds.

At the member-state level, Germany remained the EU's largest exporter (€24.0 million in 2025) and importer (€11.9 million). Notably, Belgium's imports surged from €1.9 million to €14.3 million (+670%), possibly reflecting the establishment of a major distribution or logistics hub for screen imports.

3.3 Volatility and supply shocks signal ongoing market disruption

The volatility analysis reveals that several trade corridors experienced significant instability. On the import side, Türkiye showed the highest coefficient of variation (1.58), followed by the United Kingdom (0.91) and Norway (0.91), indicating erratic supply patterns. China, by contrast, was the most stable import source (CV = 0.17), reinforcing its role as a reliable—if dominant—supplier.

On the export side, detected supply shocks include a dramatic price spike in exports to Algeria in 2022 (a 540% price shift, though representing only 1.2% of export value), and a significant price increase in exports to Serbia in 2019 (+143%). These isolated events, while not systemically threatening, illustrate the volatility inherent in smaller, less predictable markets.

Conclusion

Over the decade to 2025, the EU market for photographic and cinematographic laboratory equipment (CN 9010) has undergone a profound structural transformation. The bloc remains a net exporter, but its competitive position has weakened considerably: the trade surplus halved, net import reliance approached zero, and domestic production volumes collapsed by 88%.

The market is increasingly defined by two contrasting narratives. On one hand, the EU retains—and is arguably consolidating—a position in high-value, specialised equipment, as evidenced by rising unit export prices and stable production values. On the other hand, it has ceded the high-volume, lower-cost segments (particularly projection screens) almost entirely to Chinese suppliers, who now account for nearly three-quarters of EU imports.

This concentration carries strategic risk. The doubling of the import HHI to 5,619 places the EU in a position of significant dependency on a single supplier country. Meanwhile, the loss of export markets—most dramatically Russia (−90.1%) and China (−58.4%)—has been only partially offset by growth in the United States (+89.5%).

Looking ahead, the continued decline of analogue film-processing equipment appears irreversible, but the projection screen and medical imaging equipment segments retain growth potential. The key question for EU policymakers and industry is whether the bloc can sustain its high-value niche positions in the face of intensifying Asian competition, and whether the current level of import concentration warrants diversification efforts.