Market evolution: Spectacle frames (CN 9003) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union is both a major producer and a major consumer of spectacle frames. Customs code 9003 covers "Frames and mountings for spectacles, goggles or the like, and parts thereof, n.e.s.", encompassing plastic frames (900311), non-plastic frames such as metal and titanium (900319), and parts of frames (900390). Over the period 2015–2025, the EU's external trade in this sector underwent significant structural changes: total trade values grew substantially, but the EU's position shifted from that of a net exporter to a net importer. This report examines three central dynamics that shaped the market over this decade: (1) the widening trade deficit, (2) Italy's commanding role and a puzzling production trajectory, and (3) the reconfiguration of global trade partnerships.

1. Robust Trade Growth Accompanied by a Widening Trade Deficit

Both imports and exports expanded in value over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's external trade in spectacle frames grew significantly in value terms. Imports rose from €1,108 million to €1,324 million (+19.5%), while exports grew from €972 million to €1,162 million (+19.5%). Despite identical headline growth rates, the absolute gap widened: the EU's trade deficit in spectacle frames expanded from €136 million in 2015 to €162 million in 2025. At its worst, the deficit reached €210 million, while at its best the EU briefly achieved a near-balanced position of +€8 million.

The EU shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer

A critical structural shift occurred over the decade. The EU's net import reliance moved from −18.2% in 2015 to +8.1% in 2025, a swing of 144%. In practical terms, the EU was a net exporter of spectacle frames at the start of the period but became a net importer by its end. This transition was driven by divergent trends in volume and pricing:

• Import volumes (in tonnes) declined slightly from 7,547t to 7,359t (−2.5%), yet import values rose by 19.5%, implying a substantial increase in unit values.
• Export volumes grew from 3,670t to 4,350t (+18.5%), broadly tracking the increase in export values.

Rising import prices signal a changing product mix and cost environment

The average import price per tonne increased from €146,795 to €179,863 (+22.5%) over the period, while the export price per tonne remained relatively stable at around €265,000–€267,000 (+0.8%). EU exports are thus priced at roughly 1.5× the import price per tonne — consistent with the EU's positioning in higher-value segments.

At the per-item level, the gap is even more pronounced. According to supplementary unit data, EU-imported plastic spectacle frames cost approximately €9 per piece in 2025, while exported plastic frames fetched approximately €32 per piece — a roughly 3.5× premium reflecting the strength of European design and branding. For non-plastic frames, the export premium per piece rose from about 3.1× in 2015 to about 3.5× in 2025, as the export price per piece grew to €35.46 (+27.1%) while the import price reached €10.14 (+14.5%).

2. Italy's Commanding Role and the European Production Puzzle

Italy dominates both EU imports and exports of spectacle frames

Italy is by far the EU's largest trader in spectacle frames. On the import side, Italian imports grew from €459 million to €654 million (+42.6%), accounting for roughly half of total EU imports by value. On the export side, Italy's exports expanded from €585 million to €808 million (+38.1%), representing nearly 70% of all EU exports of spectacle frames.

Italy's centrality is confirmed by its specialisation indicators. In 2025, Italy held a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 and a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 5.90 — by far the highest among EU member states. Italy accounted for 47.2% of EU spectacle frame production value and 8.0% of total EU goods exports. Denmark (RSCA 0.42), Austria (0.25), Sweden (0.14), and Czechia (0.06) followed at a considerable distance. At the other end, Malta, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Luxembourg, and Poland showed very low or negative specialisation in this product.

France's export collapse stands out as a notable structural shift

One striking development is the sharp decline in French exports, which fell from €118 million in 2015 to just €31 million in 2025 (−73.7%). This dramatic drop, occurring alongside Italy's gains and the rise of smaller exporters like Spain (+160.8%) and Denmark (+71.0%), suggests a restructuring of the EU's internal export geography — potentially driven by shifts in corporate ownership, production rationalisation, or reclassification of trade flows following acquisitions by Italian groups.

Production volumes collapsed while values proved more resilient

The EU's domestic production data reveals a striking paradox. Reported production quantities fell from 285.7 million pieces in 2015 to just 29.9 million in 2025 — a decline of 89.5%. Yet production values declined far more modestly, from €1,374 million to €1,186 million (−13.7%). The implied average production value per item thus increased from roughly €5 to roughly €40.

This divergence likely reflects a combination of factors. It may indicate a genuine structural shift: the closure or offshoring of mass-production facilities, leaving a smaller number of specialised manufacturers focused on premium and luxury frames — particularly in Italy's Belluno eyewear district. However, the magnitude of the quantity decline (−89.5%) against a relatively stable value trajectory raises the possibility of methodological changes in Prodcom data collection or coverage. Either way, the data paints a picture of a European industry that has retreated from volume but maintained its value positioning.

Export propensity surged, indicating growing reliance on external markets

The EU's export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production value — rose from 46.4% in 2015 to 104.2% in 2025, meaning that EU exports of spectacle frames now exceed reported domestic production in value terms. Similarly, trade intensity (total trade relative to the apparent market) rose from 59.0% to 102.0%. These figures point to an increasingly trade-oriented sector in which EU-based companies — especially Italian ones — source frames or components globally, add design, branding, and finishing, and sell into worldwide markets.

3. Reconfiguring Global Trade Flows: Consolidated Sourcing and Diversified Sales

China consolidated its position as the dominant supplier to the EU

China is overwhelmingly the EU's largest source of imported spectacle frames, with imports growing from €859 million in 2015 to €1,032 million in 2025 (+20.2%). At their peak, Chinese imports reached €1,179 million. China accounts for approximately 78% of total EU imports of spectacle frames in both 2015 and 2025 — a level of concentration that has remained remarkably stable.

The concentration of EU imports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value, remained elevated at around 6,110–6,236. By volume, import concentration actually increased from 4,943 to 7,258 (+46.8%), indicating a growing reliance on a smaller number of high-volume suppliers.

However, new Asian sourcing hubs have emerged alongside China. Japan's imports more than tripled to €122 million, and Thailand's rose more than sixfold to €16 million, reflecting a gradual diversification of Asian sourcing — likely driven by cost optimisation, supply chain risk management, and preferential trade agreements. Brazil also emerged as a niche supplier, though from a very low base.

Brexit dramatically reconfigured EU–UK spectacle frame trade

The United Kingdom was the EU's second-largest import partner (€54 million) and second-largest export destination (€133 million) in 2015. By 2025, UK imports had collapsed to just €9.3 million (−82.8%), while exports to the UK declined more moderately to €123 million (−7.2%). Hong Kong, another traditional partner, saw its trade with the EU decline sharply: imports fell from €74.5 million to €19.8 million (−73.4%).

The volatility coefficient for EU–UK import flows was 1.76 — the highest among all major partners and far above the stable 0.10 observed for China. This exceptional volatility reflects the disruptive impact of Brexit on established trade patterns, including new customs procedures and rules-of-origin requirements.

EU export markets diversified, led by emerging destinations

While the United States remained the EU's largest export market at €291 million in 2025, it declined from €317 million in 2015 (−8.5%), having peaked at €477 million during the period. The most dynamic growth came from emerging markets:

Mexico's emergence as a major export destination (+267.5%) is particularly noteworthy, as is the strong growth in exports to Türkiye (+134.6%). The EU's export concentration (HHI by value) fell from 1,412 to 966 (−31.6%), confirming that export destinations became significantly more diversified over the period — a positive development for market resilience.

Price shocks and supply vulnerabilities persist despite diversification

The volatility analysis reveals an asymmetry: while China is a highly stable import supplier (coefficient of variation of 0.10), several partners exhibit high volatility — notably the United Kingdom (1.76), Thailand (1.29), and Brazil (1.06).

Three notable price shocks were detected during the period:

• Hong Kong (2019, exports): A +29.6% price shift with an abnormality score of 23.0, likely linked to political unrest and logistics disruptions in Hong Kong.
• Brazil (2020, exports): A −33.1% price drop, consistent with the global demand collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• China (2022, imports): A +12.8% import price increase from the EU's dominant supplier, reflecting post-pandemic cost pressures and supply chain bottlenecks.

These shocks, though absorbed without lasting disruption, underline the vulnerability inherent in an import structure so heavily concentrated on a single origin. The emergence of Thailand, Japan, and Brazil as alternative suppliers provides some diversification, but China's dominance at approximately 78% of total EU imports remains the defining structural feature of the EU's supply chain for spectacle frames.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in spectacle frames (CN 9003) between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of growth, specialisation, and structural change. Total trade values expanded by nearly 20%, but this growth was asymmetric: the EU shifted from being a net exporter (−18.2% net import reliance) to a net importer (+8.1%), with China accounting for the vast majority of incoming trade. Italy emerged as the undisputed centre of the European spectacle frame industry, commanding roughly 70% of EU exports and 50% of imports by value, backed by the continent's strongest comparative advantage in the sector.

The European production landscape appears to have undergone a profound transformation, with reported production volumes declining dramatically while values held relatively steady — pointing toward a concentration on high-value, brand-driven manufacturing. The EU's export geography diversified meaningfully, with Mexico, Türkiye, and China absorbing growing shares of European frames, while the UK's role diminished sharply post-Brexit. Export concentration fell by nearly a third, a positive sign for market resilience on the sales side.

Looking ahead, the sector faces a dual challenge: managing its heavy dependence on Chinese imports while continuing to leverage European design and brand equity to command premium prices — averaging 3.5× the import unit value — in increasingly diverse global markets. The data suggests that the EU's competitive edge in spectacle frames lies not in volume but in value, a positioning that will need to be sustained through continued investment in innovation, quality, and brand strength.