Market evolution: Lithium ion batteries (CN 8507) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of European Union trade in electric accumulators (CN 8507) over the 2015–2025 period. This product group is critical for the energy transition, encompassing batteries for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and energy storage. The data reveals a period of transformative growth, marked by a dramatic surge in demand, a fundamental shift in product composition towards lithium-ion technology, and a significant reorientation of trade flows and EU industrial capacity. The EU's trade deficit in this sector has expanded substantially, driven almost entirely by imports, highlighting the bloc's evolving dependency on global supply chains, particularly from Asia.

1. The Lithium-ion Surge: A Sector Redefined by Explosive Growth

The decade under review was characterized by an explosion in the value and volume of EU battery trade, driven overwhelmingly by the adoption of lithium-ion technology. This growth significantly outpaced that of traditional battery chemistries, reshaping the entire market structure.

1.1 Overall trade expansion masks a fundamental product shift

The total value of EU imports of accumulators grew by 682.7% from €4.06 billion in 2015 to €31.81 billion in 2025, while exports grew by 227.1% to €8.26 billion (General Overview). This stark divergence led to a ballooning trade deficit, which expanded from -€1.54 billion to -€23.55 billion. The core driver of this transformation is visible in the product segment breakdown.

1.2 Lithium-ion batteries become the dominant trade commodity

Lithium-ion accumulators (CN 850760) emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant product, responsible for the vast majority of import growth. Its share in total import value skyrocketed from 53% in 2015 to 89.6% in 2025.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Conversely, imports of lead-acid batteries (starter and other) remained relatively stable in volume and grew modestly in value. The average import price for lithium-ion batteries (EUR/tonne) fell by 55% from 2015 to 2025, a trend indicative of technological maturation, economies of scale, and intense competition, despite a significant price spike in 2022.

1.3 Export growth is also led by lithium-ion, but at a smaller scale

EU exports also saw a structural shift towards lithium-ion batteries, though from a much smaller base. In 2015, lithium-ion batteries represented only 13.7% of export value; by 2025, this had grown to 60.0%. This indicates that while the EU developed a significant export-oriented production base for lithium-ion batteries, it was dwarfed by the scale of import demand, reflecting the massive pull of the domestic market, particularly for electric vehicles.

2. Import Dependency and the Sourcing Shift to Asia

The EU's growing thirst for batteries was met almost entirely by imports, leading to a substantial increase in external dependency and a concentration of sourcing on a single country: China.

2.1 Net import reliance strengthened significantly

The EU's net import reliance on accumulators rose from 32.2% in 2015 to 38.0% in 2025, peaking at 40.2% in 2023. This metric underscores that while domestic production grew, it could not keep pace with consumption, necessitating a growing share of imports.

2.2 China's dominant and rapidly growing role

The most profound shift in sourcing was the rise of China. Import value from China surged by 2025.1% over the period, growing from €1.27 billion to €26.96 billion. Consequently, China's share in EU battery imports exploded from 31.2% in 2015 to 84.8% in 2025 (Top Partners by Value - Imports).

This concentration is also reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value, which rose from 1,655 to 7,217, moving from a moderately concentrated to a highly concentrated market. The supply shock analysis also flags volatility in trade with partners like Vietnam and Ukraine, though the sheer scale of Chinese trade anchors the overall system.

3. Industrial Rebalancing and Evolving EU Specialisation

Behind the aggregate trade figures, a complex rebalancing of production and specialization occurred within the EU, with certain Member States emerging as key hubs in the new battery value chain.

3.1 EU production scaled up but focused on integration

EU production (measured in cells) grew by 48.7% in quantity but saw its value increase by 224.6% to €26.94 billion by 2025 (Production Volumes). This suggests a move towards higher-value production. However, this growth was not sufficient to offset import demand, leading to the increased net reliance noted earlier. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) declined from 50.8% to 38.4%, indicating that more of the EU's growing production was serving the internal market.

3.2 Central and Eastern Europe became key specialisation clusters

Analysis of specialization (RSCA) reveals a clear geographic reorientation. By 2025, Hungary, Czechia, and Poland were the most specialized EU exporters in accumulators. This reflects massive foreign direct investment (e.g., in gigafactories by Asian and European firms) leveraging logistical advantages and skilled labour in these regions.

Conversely, traditional industrial economies like Germany, while remaining the largest exporter in absolute terms (€2.96 bn in 2025), saw its relative specialization weaken. Germany was also the largest importer (€10.95 bn), highlighting its role as both a major production hub and a massive consumption market for batteries, particularly for its automotive sector.

3.3 Geopolitical shocks created new, volatile export markets

While the import side was dominated by Asia, the export side showed increasing diversification and vulnerability. The conflict in Ukraine led to a near-complete collapse in exports to Russia (from €151m in 2015 to €0.5m in 2025, a -99.7% change). In contrast, exports to Türkiye and Mexico saw exceptional growth (+645.2% and +2058.3% respectively), possibly reflecting supply chain diversification efforts by global manufacturers and the rise of new EV markets. However, these flows demonstrated high volatility, as indicated by their coefficients of variation.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period was a decade of radical transformation for the EU's electric accumulator market, driven by the global electrification of transport and energy. The market evolved from one with diversified battery technologies and partners to one dominated by lithium-ion imports from China. This shift has created strategic vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the soaring trade deficit and high import concentration. In response, the EU has initiated an industrial rebalancing, with significant production investments making Central and Eastern European countries new specialisation hubs. However, the scale of the green transition's demand continues to outstrip domestic supply capacity. The coming years will be defined by the EU's ability to translate its policy ambitions (e.g., the European Battery Alliance) into a more resilient and competitive industrial base capable of managing the dual challenges of massive market growth and strategic dependency.