Market evolution: Primary batteries (CN 8506) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in primary cells and batteries (CN 8506) from 2015 to 2025. The product category encompasses a range of battery types, including manganese dioxide, lithium, silver oxide, and others, along with their parts. Over the decade, the EU market has been characterised by a persistent and growing trade deficit, a dramatic shift in the composition of both imports and exports, and significant volatility linked to geopolitical events. The EU's increasing reliance on imports, coupled with a strategic pivot towards higher-value and specific battery technologies in its export basket, defines the period. This analysis will explore these overarching trends, the structural changes in trade partners, and the growing vulnerabilities in the bloc's supply chains.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by Import Demand

The EU's trade in primary batteries has been consistently in deficit throughout the examined period, with the gap widening in value terms. This structural deficit is the result of import values growing at a faster rate than export values.

1.1. The Persistent and Growing Deficit

The EU's trade balance for CN 8506 was negative in every year from 2015 to 2025. In value, the deficit expanded from approximately €294 million in 2015 to €365 million in 2025, an increase of about 24%. The most significant deterioration occurred between 2019 and 2022, peaking at a deficit of €574 million in 2021, which coincides with post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and increased energy costs. Despite some recovery in 2022, the 2025 deficit remained larger than in 2015. This persistent negative balance indicates a sustained structural reliance on foreign supply to meet internal demand.

1.2. Divergent Growth in Value and Volume

The growth in import and export values masks a more complex story in trade volumes. While import values rose by 36.6% over the period, the quantity imported (in net mass) increased by only 16.0%. Conversely, export values grew by 43.8%, but the quantity exported fell dramatically by 63.2%. This divergence is explained by a sharp increase in unit values (prices). The average price of EU exports surged by 290.6%, while import prices rose by only 17.8%. This suggests the EU is exporting far fewer tonnes of batteries but of a much higher average value, while it continues to import substantial tonnage at a more moderate price increase.

Source: General Overview

2. Export Transformation: From Volume to High-Value Specialisation

The EU's export profile for primary batteries has undergone a fundamental transformation. The bloc has moved away from exporting large volumes of generic battery types towards a more specialised, high-value export strategy, with a strong focus on lithium technology.

2.1. The Decline of Generic and Other Battery Exports

The most dramatic decline in exports is observed in the category "Primary cells and batteries, electric (excl. spent, and those of silver oxide, mercuric oxide, manganese dioxide, lithium and air-zinc)" (CN 850680). In quantity terms, exports of this category collapsed from 99,805 tonnes in 2015 to just 2,277 tonnes in 2025, a decrease of over 97%. Similarly, exports of manganese dioxide batteries (CN 850610), while more stable, still fell in quantity from 31,237 tonnes to 41,850 tonnes over the decade but saw its value share erode. This indicates a retreat from competing in the high-volume, lower-margin segments of the primary battery market.

2.2. The Ascent of High-Value Lithium and Niche Batteries

In stark contrast, the EU has aggressively scaled up exports of lithium primary batteries (CN 850650). Export value in this segment grew from €130 million in 2015 to €247 million in 2025, an increase of 90%, making it the EU's largest export category by value in 2025. The unit value of these exports is exceptionally high (over €70,000 per tonne), underscoring their advanced and specialised nature. Similarly, while smaller in absolute terms, exports of air-zinc (CN 850660) and silver oxide (CN 850640) batteries maintain very high unit values. This shift is reflected in the EU's revealed comparative advantage (RCA), where Belgium and Poland show strong specialisation (RCA > 2.3) in 2025, likely driven by advanced manufacturing in these high-value segments.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

3. Import Dependency and Geopolitical Vulnerability

The EU's import structure reveals a high and growing dependency on a single dominant supplier, China, alongside significant volatility and shocks affecting other key trade relationships.

3.1. China's Dominant and Growing Market Share

China has solidified its position as the EU's paramount source for primary batteries. Imports from China in value terms nearly doubled, rising from €315 million (39% of total imports) in 2015 to €618 million (56% of total imports) in 2025. This growth occurred across major segments, including manganese dioxide and lithium batteries. The concentration of import sources, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), increased significantly by 60% to 3,441, moving from a "moderately concentrated" to a "highly concentrated" market structure. This indicates a substantial increase in supply-chain risk, as the EU becomes more reliant on a single country for a critical industrial good.

3.2. Shocks in Key Partnerships and Volatile Flows

Trade with other major partners has been marked by volatility and abrupt shocks. Exports to the Russian Federation collapsed from €44 million in 2015 to just €1.4 million in 2025, a 97% decline, with a severe price shock detected in 2023. Conversely, exports to Ukraine saw a dramatic price shock in 2020 and overall value growth of 432%, likely linked to regional conflict dynamics. The trade relationship with the United Kingdom, the EU's largest export destination, has also been volatile (coefficient of variation of 0.73 for imports and 0.88 for exports), reflecting post-Brexit adjustments. These events highlight the geopolitical sensitivity of this trade.

Source: Volatility & Shocks

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in primary batteries has been defined by a strategic repositioning and growing external dependency. The bloc has deliberately moved away from high-volume, lower-value exports, instead leveraging its industrial base to specialize in high-value segments, particularly lithium batteries. This successful upscaling of the export basket, however, runs parallel to a concerning deepening of import reliance. The concentration of imports from China has reached high levels, creating a significant strategic vulnerability. Meanwhile, traditional trade flows have been disrupted by geopolitical shocks, adding another layer of risk. The future trajectory of this market will be shaped by the EU's ability to balance its competitive success in advanced battery technologies with the imperative to diversify supply chains and enhance strategic autonomy.