Market evolution: Flashlights (CN 8513) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the European Union's trade in portable electric lamps and their parts (Combined Nomenclature code 8513) over the 2015-2025 period. The data reveals a market characterised by significant value growth amidst declining trade volumes, pointing to fundamental shifts in pricing, supply chain structure, and the EU's strategic position. The following sections detail these core dynamics, focusing on the price-volume divergence, the consolidation around key trading partners, and the resulting structural vulnerabilities for the European market.
1. Rising Values, Falling Volumes: A Decade of Price-Driven Growth
The most striking feature of the EU's trade in portable electric lamps over the past decade is the clear divergence between the monetary value and the physical quantity traded. While the value of both imports and exports increased, the volumes in tonnes declined, indicating a sustained increase in unit prices.
Import bill grew despite shrinking physical inflows
Total EU imports rose by 21.9% in value, from €361.4 million in 2015 to €440.6 million in 2025. However, the imported quantity decreased by 14.2%, from 23,201 tonnes to 19,908 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a 42.1% increase in the average import price per tonne over the same period. The same pattern is observed in exports: value grew by 16.0% while quantity fell by 11.6%, leading to a 31.1% rise in export prices.
| Metric | 2015 (First) | 2025 (Last) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports Value | €361,390,025 | €440,578,063 | +21.9% |
| Imports Quantity | 23,201 t | 19,908 t | -14.2% |
| Exports Value | €78,603,656 | €91,175,813 | +16.0% |
| Exports Quantity | 2,049 t | 1,810 t | -11.6% |
Domestic production collapsed, amplifying import needs
The decline in EU production volumes provides crucial context for this trend. Reported EU production of items in this category fell by 75.6% in quantity (from 8.62 million items to 2.10 million) and 57.9% in value between the first and last reported periods. This collapse in local manufacturing shifted demand onto imports, contributing to the price inflation seen in the import data. The EU's net import reliance consequently surged from 37.8% to 75.0%.
2. The China-Centric Supply Chain and Shifting Partner Dynamics
The EU's import market is heavily dominated by China, but the period saw significant volatility and reshuffling among other suppliers, while export destinations also underwent notable changes.
China strengthened its grip on EU imports
China's share of EU imports grew from €297.3 million to €390.2 million (+31.2%), cementing its position as the primary source. The concentration of imports increased, as shown by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) rising from 6,843 to 8,046. In contrast, other traditional suppliers saw their shares erode sharply. Imports from the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, and Taiwan all fell by over 46%, with the UK's share dropping by 46.5% and Taiwan's by 70.3%.
| Import Partner | 2015 Value (€ million) | 2025 Value (€ million) | % Change | Coefficient of Variation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 297.3 | 390.2 | +31.2% | 0.09 (Very Stable) |
| United Kingdom | 13.1 | 7.0 | -46.5% | 0.68 (Volatile) |
| United States | 25.8 | 22.4 | -13.1% | 0.33 (Moderate) |
| Hong Kong | 7.3 | 2.1 | -70.6% | 0.58 (Volatile) |
Export markets showed divergent resilience and volatility
The EU's main export destinations remained neighbouring high-income countries. Switzerland (+22.2%) and Ukraine (+1285.2%) were significant growth markets for EU exporters, while trade with Norway and the UK remained substantial but stable or slightly declining. The Ukrainian market's growth, from a low base, was particularly dramatic. However, the volatility analysis reveals that these relationships are not equally stable; export flows to the UK and Ukraine, for instance, exhibited much higher year-on-year variation than those to Switzerland.
3. Structural Vulnerabilities and Price Shocks in Key Markets
The evolving structure of trade has exposed the EU to specific vulnerabilities, centred on import dependency and price volatility in important export markets.
The EU's export profile became less specialised and more concentrated domestically
Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows that in 2025, only Denmark and Poland had a notable RCA in this product category. Meanwhile, major economies like Germany, while being the largest EU exporter by value, saw its export concentration (HHI) decrease, suggesting a diversification of its export base. This points to a less specialised EU industry in this sector.
Significant price shocks were detected in key export destinations
The volatility and shock analysis identified abnormal price movements in several important markets. The most notable was a price shock in exports to the United Kingdom in 2022, where the unit price fell by 26.4% in an abnormal event, despite the UK accounting for 28.5% of export value that year. Another significant shock was a 71.7% price increase in exports to Canada in 2022. These events highlight the sensitivity of trade flows to non-tariff factors like exchange rates, logistics, or demand shifts in key markets.
Conclusion
Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU market for portable electric lamps underwent a structural transformation. It evolved from a balanced trade system towards heavy dependency on imports, characterised by price inflation masking volume declines. This was driven by a near-total withdrawal of domestic production and a consolidation of supply chains around China. The EU's export trade, while valuable, showed increasing price volatility in core markets like the UK. Consequently, the market's primary vulnerability shifted from simple trade deficits to a deeper strategic reliance on a single dominant supplier, compounded by price instability in its own export channels. The period underscores a shift towards higher-value but less self-sufficient trade flows for this product category.