Market evolution: Flashlights (CN 851310) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of portable electrical lamps designed to function by their own energy source (CN 851310) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation: while the EU's total trade value has grown, the underlying volumes have declined, unit prices have surged, and the bloc's dependence on imports — particularly from China — has deepened markedly. At the same time, EU domestic production has contracted dramatically, raising important questions about supply-chain resilience and industrial capacity. The following three sections unpack these intertwined dynamics.

1. The Price-Volume Paradox: Less Product, More Money

A striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the simultaneous decline in traded quantities and rise in traded values. Both imports and exports follow the same pattern — falling tonnage but increasing euro values — pointing to a structural shift toward higher unit prices rather than genuine volume growth.

1.1 Import values rose while volumes fell

EU imports of CN 851310 grew from €353.1 million in 2015 to €432.0 million in 2025, a change of +22.3%. Over the same period, import tonnage fell from 22,933 tonnes to 19,694 tonnes (−14.1%). The reconciliation lies in unit prices: the average import price per tonne rose from €15,395 to €21,932 (+42.5%). Importantly, the peak import value of €495.2 million was reached in a year when volumes were not at their highest, underscoring that price inflation, not demand growth, has been the dominant driver.

1.2 Export prices increased even more sharply

EU exports tell a similar story. Export value edged up from €73.3 million to €86.4 million (+17.9%), yet tonnage declined from 1,916 to 1,685 (−12.1%). The unit export price climbed from €38,226 per tonne to €51,203 per tonne (+34.0%), as shown in the overview. Notably, EU export prices are roughly double those of imports (€51,203/t vs. €21,932/t in 2025), suggesting that EU exporters tend to ship higher-value, branded, or more specialised products, while lower-cost goods dominate the import side.

1.3 The trade deficit widened despite value growth

Imports grew faster in absolute terms than exports, widening the trade deficit by 23.5%. The deficit ranged from a low of −€239.5 million (2020) to a high of −€396.9 million, reflecting some cyclical variation — notably a temporary narrowing during 2020, likely linked to pandemic-related trade disruptions.

2. China's Dominance and the EU's Growing Import Concentration

The second major dynamic is the increasing concentration of EU imports around a single supplier: China. This has occurred even as other traditional suppliers have lost ground, and it has coincided with a sharp rise in the EU's overall net import reliance.

2.1 China consolidated its position as the dominant supplier

Source: Top partners by value

China's share of EU imports rose from roughly 83% in 2015 to approximately 89% in 2025. Meanwhile, imports from Hong Kong and Taiwan — historically transit or re-export hubs — collapsed by over 70%, consistent with the consolidation of manufacturing directly in mainland China and the reduction of intermediary trade flows. The decline in UK imports (−46.3%) likely reflects post-Brexit trade restructuring.

2.2 Import concentration increased while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 6,933 to 8,155 (+17.6%), confirming a measurable increase in supplier concentration. At the same time, the export HHI fell from 1,167 to 923 (−20.9%), indicating that EU exports have become more diversified across destination markets.

2.3 Net import reliance nearly doubled

The EU's net import reliance surged from 42.5% in 2015 to 76.7% in 2025, peaking at 85.5% along the way. This means that for every unit of domestic consumption, a substantially larger share now comes from outside the EU. The trade intensity index tells a complementary story: it nearly doubled from 52.3% to 98.4%, indicating that the EU's overall engagement with the global market for this product has intensified dramatically. These figures point to a growing vulnerability to supply disruptions — whether from geopolitical tensions, logistics bottlenecks, or policy changes affecting the EU-China trade relationship.

3. The Collapse of EU Production and the Rise of Niche Exporters

Perhaps the most consequential development is the dramatic contraction of EU domestic manufacturing capacity, which has occurred even as some EU member states have emerged as relatively specialised exporters.

3.1 EU production volumes fell by three quarters

Source: Production volumes

EU production of portable lamps collapsed from over 8.6 million units to just 2.1 million (−75.6%), while production value halved. This indicates a substantial hollowing-out of the EU's manufacturing base, consistent with the broader offshoring of consumer electronics and lighting assembly to Asia. The slower decline in value (−53.8% vs. −75.6% in quantity) suggests that what remains of EU production is increasingly focused on higher-value segments.

3.2 A handful of EU members retain competitive specialisation

Despite the overall production decline, certain EU member states maintain measurable specialisation advantages in 2025, as measured by the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA):

Source: Specialisation

Denmark shows the strongest relative specialisation (RSCA 0.276), while Germany and the Netherlands account for the largest absolute export shares. However, these specialisation indices should be read in context: the EU's total export volume is modest relative to its imports, and the specialisation is partly a reflection of niche positioning (e.g., professional, industrial, or branded products) rather than mass-market competitiveness.

3.3 Export destinations shifted, with Ukraine emerging as a major growth market

Source: Top export partners

The most dramatic shift is the surge in EU exports to Ukraine, which grew from €0.28 million to €4.1 million (+1,394.8%). This likely reflects humanitarian and civilian demand in the context of the conflict beginning in 2022. Among EU member states acting as exporters, the Netherlands (+82.5%) and Czechia (+522.3%) saw the most impressive growth, while Denmark (−32.7%) and France (−8.6%) experienced declines.

3.4 Volatility remains modest for major partners, with isolated price shocks

The volatility analysis shows that China — the dominant supplier — exhibits remarkably low price volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.09), providing a degree of predictability in the supply relationship. By contrast, several smaller partners show high volatility: imports from the UK (CV 0.67), Hong Kong (0.58), and Taiwan (0.43) fluctuated significantly, consistent with declining and erratic trade volumes. On the export side, a notable price shock occurred in 2022 for exports to Canada, with an abnormality score of 273.9 and a +69% price shift, possibly linked to logistics disruptions or a specific large contract.

Conclusion

The EU market for portable electrical lamps (CN 851310) between 2015 and 2025 has been shaped by three converging trends: a structural price-volume divergence that masks stagnating demand behind rising unit values; a deepening dependence on China as the near-monopoly supplier; and a severe contraction of domestic production capacity. Net import reliance has nearly doubled to 76.7%, while EU output has shrunk by three quarters. Though certain member states retain comparative advantages in niche export segments, the overall picture is one of growing external dependency. Looking ahead, the EU's strategic autonomy objectives in the lighting and electronics sectors will need to contend with this reality — particularly if supply-chain diversification or reshoring ambitions are to gain traction.