Market evolution: Hot rolled steel coils thin (CN 720839) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the European Union's external trade in thin, hot-rolled steel coils (customs code 720839) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a decade of significant structural shifts for this foundational industrial material. The EU has evolved from a relatively balanced market into one characterized by a substantial and growing trade deficit, a fundamental realignment of its key suppliers, and increasing exposure to external price volatility. These dynamics are driven by a combination of declining domestic production, evolving competitive advantages, and major geopolitical shocks that have reshaped global trade flows.

The Widening Trade Deficit: EU's Growing Reliance on Imports

The most prominent trend over the decade is the EU's mounting import dependence, driven by stagnating exports and persistent import growth, which has fundamentally altered the sector's trade balance.

Import volumes and values have grown consistently

Total EU imports of CN 720839 from non-EU countries increased in value from €1.12 billion in 2015 to €1.80 billion in 2025, a rise of 60.9%. The quantity imported grew more moderately by 14.6% over the same period, from 2.94 million tonnes to 3.36 million tonnes. This divergence indicates that while physical import volumes have increased, their value has been amplified by rising average import prices, which climbed from €381 to €536 per tonne (General Overview).

EU exports have contracted sharply

In contrast, the EU's export performance has deteriorated significantly. Export value fell by 45.1% from €368 million to €202 million. The decline in exported quantity was even more severe, dropping by 68.2% from 989,000 tonnes to just 314,000 tonnes. This contraction occurred despite a substantial increase in average export prices, which rose by 72.8% to €644 per tonne, suggesting a loss of competitiveness on volume terms (General Overview).

The result is a ballooning trade deficit and heightened vulnerability

The combination of rising imports and falling exports has caused the trade deficit to more than double in value terms, growing from -€751 million in 2015 to -€1.60 billion in 2025. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance for this product surged from 16.9% to 26.0%, indicating that over a quarter of the EU's apparent consumption now depends on external suppliers.

A Realignment of Trade Partners: From Russia to Turkey and Beyond

The geopolitical landscape of the EU's steel trade has been completely redrawn, with traditional suppliers vanishing and new ones gaining prominence.

The collapse of Russian imports created a supply vacuum

In 2015, the Russian Federation was the EU's largest supplier of CN 720839, accounting for €306 million in imports. By 2025, these imports had collapsed to a mere €565,000, a decline of 99.8%. This dramatic shift, a clear result of sanctions following geopolitical events, removed a major source of supply from the market.

Türkiye and other nations filled the gap

The vacuum left by Russia was primarily filled by Türkiye, whose exports to the EU skyrocketed by 174.1% from €91 million in 2015 to a peak of €562 million in 2023, before settling at €248 million in 2025. Other notable suppliers that grew their presence include Ukraine (+55.2%), India (+192.9%), the Republic of Korea (+464.6%), and Japan (from a very low base). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 1,559 to 1,097, confirming a shift from a more concentrated to a more diversified import base (Concentration HHI).

EU export destinations consolidated

The EU's export market became much more concentrated. The HHI for exports surged from 1,489 to 4,630. Exports to the United Kingdom became dominant, growing by 611% to €131 million and becoming the clear top destination. Conversely, exports to traditional markets like Türkiye, Italy, Romania, and North Macedonia collapsed or ceased entirely (Concentration HHI, Top Partners by Value).

Price Volatility and Supply Shocks: Navigating a Turbulent Market

The market has been characterized by significant price instability and specific supply shocks, particularly affecting the import side.

Significant price shocks occurred in 2021

The year 2021 stands out as a period of extreme market disturbance. The data detects major price shocks for imports from Japan (an abnormality score of 21.6, with a price shift of +85.4%) and Brazil (abnormality 17.7, price shift +102.7%). These events, likely linked to global post-pandemic demand surges and logistics bottlenecks, caused significant cost increases for EU importers (Top Shock Events).

Import relationships show high volatility

Many of the EU's key import partners exhibit a high degree of trade volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Japan (CV=1.01), Vietnam (CV=0.97), and Egypt (CV=0.74) are particularly volatile suppliers. This indicates that trade flows with these countries are unpredictable, posing challenges for supply chain stability (Volatility Bars).

The UK export relationship shows asymmetric risk

While the UK has become the EU's primary export destination, this relationship is also volatile (CV=0.80). This creates a concentration risk: the EU's export sector is now highly dependent on a single, albeit geographically close, but fluctuating market.

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 has seen the EU's market for thin hot-rolled steel coils undergo a profound transformation. The sector has shifted from a state of relative balance to one of significant structural dependence on imports, a trend reflected in a ballooning trade deficit and rising net import reliance. This shift was catalysed by the abrupt disappearance of Russian supply, which prompted a rapid realignment of the EU's supplier base towards Türkiye and other nations. Concurrently, the EU's export capacity has withered, with its remaining exports becoming dangerously concentrated on the United Kingdom. This new market structure is not only more import-dependent but also more exposed to price volatility and specific supply shocks, as evidenced by the turbulent events of 2021. These trends point to a critical reassessment of the EU's industrial competitiveness and supply chain resilience in this foundational steel product category.