Market evolution: Hot rolled pickled coil (CN 720826) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in hot-rolled pickled steel coils (Customs code 720826) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a fundamental structural shift in the EU's trade position, moving from a slight net exporter to a significant net importer of this product. This transformation is characterized by a steep decline in EU export volumes, a diversification and growth of import sources, and significant price volatility driven by global shocks. The following sections detail these dynamics and their implications for the EU's industrial autonomy and market structure.
1. A Structural Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer
The most significant trend over the decade is the EU's shift from a positive to a negative trade balance for product 720826, driven by diverging paths for exports and imports.
The Collapse of Export Volumes and the Rise of Imports
EU export quantities fell by 60.0%, from 190,884 tonnes in 2015 to 76,302 tonnes in 2025. In stark contrast, import volumes remained relatively stable, increasing slightly by 11.7% from 179,523 tonnes to 200,554 tonnes over the same period. This divergence caused the net import reliance to surge from 16.9% in 2015 to 26.0% in 2025. The trade balance in euros consequently swung from a surplus of €12.4 million to a deficit of €63.1 million.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Quantity (t) | 190,884 | 76,302 | -60.0% |
| Import Quantity (t) | 179,523 | 200,554 | +11.7% |
| Net Import Reliance | 16.9% | 26.0% | +53.8% |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | €12.4M | -€63.1M | -609.1% |
Price Dynamics: Cost Inflation for Both Flows
Despite falling volumes, the value of exports did not decline as steeply due to a sharp increase in unit export prices, which rose by 66.5% to €791 per tonne. Import prices also escalated by 41.8% to €618 per tonne. This indicates that while the EU bought a similar physical quantity of steel in 2025 as in 2015, it paid substantially more for it, and its remaining exports commanded a significant price premium.
2. Shifting Geographies: Partner Diversification and Specialization
The geographic composition of EU trade partners underwent substantial realignment, altering the market's concentration and revealing areas of regional specialization.
Import Sources: The Rise of Asian Suppliers and the Decline of Russia
The concentration of import sources (measured by HHI) decreased by 10.6%, signaling a diversification of supply. The most dramatic changes occurred among the top partners. Imports from Taiwan surged by 787.3% in value, while Serbia (+396.3%) and Egypt (+11,337%) also saw explosive growth. Conversely, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed by 97.1% in value, falling from €17.9 million to just €0.5 million, likely reflecting geopolitical sanctions.
Export Markets: Contraction Across Traditional Partners
EU export destinations contracted in value, with traditional partners like the United Kingdom (-40.1%), Türkiye (-57.1%), and the United States (-51.0%) all showing significant declines. The HHI for exports fell by 27.4%, indicating that the remaining export volumes were also spread across a more diversified, albeit smaller, set of partners.
Internal EU Specialization
Within the EU, specialization in production and export is highly uneven. Belgium is the clear leader in export specialization (RCA of 4.64) and holds the largest share of EU export value. In terms of imports, Italy is the largest EU recipient, accounting for €50.6 million of the total in 2025.
| Specialisation (2025) | Top EU Exporter | Top EU Importer |
|---|---|---|
| Country | Belgium | Italy |
| Value | €19.7M | €50.6M |
| RCA / Share | RCA 4.64 | 40.8% of EU imports |
3. Market Turbulence: Price Shocks and Supply Volatility
The period was marked by significant price volatility, with several extreme shock events altering the cost structure for specific trade flows.
Identified Price Shocks
The volatility analysis identifies three major price shocks centered around 2021-2022:
- EU Exports to the United States (2021): An abnormal price spike of 102.9%, likely linked to global supply chain disruptions and US tariff policies.
- EU Imports from Serbia (2021): A 97.0% price increase, suggesting severe supply or cost pressures from this Balkan supplier.
- EU Exports to China (2022): A 49.0% price jump, occurring during a period of high global steel demand and prices.
Varying Stability in Trade Flows
The volatility of import sources varies dramatically. Imports from Russia and China show very high coefficient of variation (CV) values (0.92 and 1.81, respectively), indicating unstable trade volumes. In contrast, imports from South Korea (CV 0.27) and the United Kingdom (CV 0.31) were far more consistent, highlighting the relative reliability of some traditional partners.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's market for hot-rolled pickled coil (CN 720826) underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc transitioned from a net exporter to a structurally dependent net importer, with import reliance increasing by over 50%. This shift was driven by a severe contraction in export volumes and a redirection of import flows away from Russia towards Asian and Balkan suppliers like Taiwan and Serbia. Concurrently, the market experienced significant price inflation and volatility, with major supply shocks in 2021-2022 underscoring its exposure to global disruptions. The data points to a sector facing challenges in maintaining export competitiveness while becoming more reliant on a diversified, but sometimes volatile, set of foreign suppliers, impacting the EU's industrial autonomy in this key steel segment.