Market evolution: Hot rolled steel coils thick (CN 720836) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU customs code 720836 — flat-rolled hot-rolled steel coils of thickness ≥ 600 mm and ≥ 10 mm — over the period 2015–2025. The product definition covers a critical industrial material used in construction, shipbuilding, and heavy manufacturing. Over this eleven-year window, the EU steel market was shaped by several major forces: the post-2016 global steel overcapacity crisis, the EU safeguard measures introduced in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2022 commodity price spike, and the sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Against this backdrop, the EU's trade position in this product category has shifted dramatically, with imports surging while exports and domestic production have weakened. The following sections detail these transformations.

I. The Structural Widening of the EU's Trade Deficit

Import volumes have grown far more rapidly than export volumes

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 720836 grew from 240,655 tonnes to 623,749 tonnes — an increase of 159.2%. Over the same period, export quantities actually declined by 11.9%, from 127,117 tonnes to 112,027 tonnes. This divergence is the defining structural feature of the decade: the EU has become substantially more dependent on external supply while its ability to serve foreign markets with this product has diminished.

The trade deficit has deepened sixfold in nominal terms

The monetary consequences of this volume divergence are stark. Import value surged from €97.8 million in 2015 to €356.4 million in 2025 (+264.2%), while export value rose only from €50.0 million to €71.0 million (+41.9%). As a result, the trade balance deteriorated from a deficit of €47.8 million in 2015 to €285.4 million in 2025 — a worsening of 496.6%. This trajectory accelerated after 2019, suggesting that the EU safeguard measures, while slowing some import flows, did not fundamentally reverse the underlying trend.

Rising prices have amplified the value effect

It is important to note that unit prices also increased substantially over the period. Import prices rose from €407/t to €571/t (+40.5%), while export prices climbed from €393/t to €601/t (+52.8%). The higher price increase on the export side suggests some positive terms-of-trade effect, but the much larger import volume base means that the deficit expansion is primarily a volume story, not merely a price effect.

II. A Major Reconfiguration of Import Origins

Russia's collapse and the rise of new Asian suppliers

Perhaps the most dramatic shift in import partners has been the near-total disappearance of Russian supply. Russian imports fell from €13.0 million in 2015 to just €0.3 million in 2025 (–97.9%), reflecting the EU sanctions regime imposed after February 2022. In parallel, South Korean imports exploded from €5.7 million to €80.1 million (+1,316.2%), and Taiwanese imports surged from €0.3 million to €17.8 million (+6,896.7%). These Asian suppliers filled — and ultimately exceeded — the gap left by Russia.

Türkiye has become the dominant import source

Among all partners, Türkiye experienced the most sustained growth in absolute terms, rising from €12.3 million to €103.1 million (+739.6%). At its peak, Turkish imports reached €132.0 million. Türkiye's position reflects its large and competitive steel industry, geographical proximity to the EU, and the effectiveness of its logistics for heavy steel products. India also grew from €12.7 million to €35.3 million (+178.0%), though more modestly.

Import concentration has moderately increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 1,451 to 1,756 over the period, indicating a moderate increase in supplier concentration. While still below the threshold typically considered highly concentrated, this trend suggests that the EU has become somewhat more reliant on a narrower set of trading partners — notably Türkiye, South Korea, and India — heightening potential vulnerability to supply disruptions from these specific countries.

III. Geopolitical Shocks, Price Volatility, and Declining Export Competitiveness

The 2021 price shock was a defining moment

The shock detection analysis identifies 2021 as a year of extreme price abnormality across multiple import partners. For Taiwan, Serbia, and Russia, the price shift in 2021 reached abnormality scores of 14.5, 13.5, and 9.3 respectively — far exceeding normal variation. These shocks correspond to the global steel price surge driven by post-COVID demand recovery, raw material cost inflation, and supply-chain bottlenecks. The volatility coefficients for import partners like Taiwan (CV = 1.18) and Indonesia (CV = 1.42) confirm that certain supply lines remain inherently unstable.

EU production has contracted while export propensity has fallen sharply

The EU's domestic production of this steel grade declined by 23.0% in volume terms over the period, from 25.8 billion kg to 19.9 billion kg. Production value fell more modestly (–5.5%), reflecting higher prices, but the volume decline underscores structural capacity reductions in the EU steel sector. Correspondingly, the export propensity — the share of domestic production exported — fell from 12.9% to 7.5% (–42.2%). This metric is identified as the most salient vulnerability indicator, suggesting the EU is increasingly consuming its own output rather than competing internationally.

Export destinations have shifted significantly toward the United Kingdom

On the export side, the United Kingdom emerged as the dominant destination, growing from €9.5 million to €53.5 million (+465.6%). This almost certainly reflects post-Brexit trade flows, where the UK, no longer part of the EU single market, is now counted as a non-EU partner. At the same time, exports to former major destinations collapsed: Türkiye fell from €23.8 million to €3.6 million (–84.7%), Algeria from €0.9 million to €0.09 million (–90.1%), and the United States from €6.8 million to €1.8 million (–73.2%). The export HHI surged from 2,879 to 5,838 (+102.8%), reflecting extreme concentration of EU exports in a small number of markets — a significant vulnerability.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade position in thick hot-rolled steel coils (CN 720836) has undergone a fundamental transformation. The bloc has shifted from a relatively balanced trade profile to one characterized by a deepening import dependency, with the net import reliance rising from 16.9% to 26.0%. This shift has been driven by the simultaneous contraction of domestic production (–23% in volume) and the rapid expansion of imports from Türkiye, South Korea, India, and Taiwan — replacing Russian supply that disappeared under sanctions. On the export side, the UK's emergence as the primary destination masks a broader deterioration in EU competitiveness in non-European markets, with export propensity nearly halving. Price volatility, extreme supplier concentration on the export side (HHI reaching 5,838), and the 2021 price shock collectively highlight the EU's growing exposure to external market forces in this critical industrial product category.