Market evolution: Hot rolled plate in relief (CN 720840) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of product CN 720840—flat-rolled iron or non-alloy steel with relief patterns, hot-rolled and not further coated—by the European Union with the rest of the world over the 2015–2025 period. The analysis is based on available trade data and focuses on identifying the main structural shifts, partner dynamics, and market shocks that have characterised the decade. For detailed data and visualisations, refer to the Trade Dashboard overview.

1. From a Deficit to a Surplus: A Structural Shift in the EU's Trade Balance

The EU's trade position for CN 720840 underwent a fundamental transformation, moving from a position of net dependence to one of modest self-sufficiency over the decade.

1.1. Import contraction outpaces export decline, turning the balance positive

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's import volume of CN 720840 fell by 32.0%, from 26,136 tonnes to 17,767 tonnes. While export volumes also decreased by 27.0% (from 17,620 to 12,866 tonnes), the steeper decline in imports was the primary driver behind the change in the trade balance. The trade value balance shifted from a deficit of -1.59 million EUR in 2015 to a surplus of 0.15 million EUR in 2025. This shift is reflected in the net import reliance, which moved from a positive 5.9% (indicating net imports) in 2015 to a negative -2.7% (indicating net exports) by 2025.

1.2. Price inflation masked underlying volume declines for both flows

Despite falling volumes, the total value of both imports and exports remained relatively stable due to significant price increases. Import prices rose by 40.6%, and export prices by 44.5% over the period. This indicates that while the physical trade of this specific product diminished, its unit value increased substantially, likely due to raw material costs, energy prices, and general inflationary pressures.

2. Seismic Shifts in Partner Dynamics: Sanctions, Diversification, and Regional Holes

The geographic landscape of EU trade for CN 720840 was redrawn by geopolitical events and changing commercial relationships.

2.1. The collapse of Russian imports and the rise of Serbian and Turkish suppliers

The most dramatic change occurred on the import side. Imports from the Russian Federation, which stood at 4.88 million EUR in 2015, collapsed to just 50,226 EUR by 2025—a decrease of 99.0%—reflecting the impact of sanctions. This void was filled by a surge in imports from other partners. Serbia saw its exports to the EU increase by 442.4%, becoming the second-largest import source by value (5.79 million EUR). Similarly, imports from Türkiye grew by 218.3% to 2.87 million EUR. The top import partners table underscores this reconfiguration.

2.2. Export volatility and a surge in intra-EU-adjacent trade

Export patterns were highly volatile. The most notable trend was a spectacular increase in exports to Norway, from 0.25 million EUR in 2015 to 7.04 million EUR in 2025 (a +2696% change), making it the top export destination by a wide margin. Conversely, exports to traditional partners like the United States (-75.0%) and Türkiye (-76.0%) contracted sharply. The concentration of export value (HHI index) increased by 268%, indicating a growing reliance on fewer, more geographically proximate partners.

3. Production Erosion and Specialisation within the EU

The external trade shifts are symptomatic of deeper changes in the EU's internal production structure for this product category.

3.1. A dramatic decline in EU production volumes

EU production of CN 720840 experienced a severe contraction. The production quantity fell by 68.7%, from 1.66 billion kg in 2015 to 0.52 billion kg in 2025. Production value also dropped by 53.7%. This suggests a significant reduction in the EU's manufacturing capacity for this specific type of flat-rolled steel, likely due to global competition, shifts towards higher-value steel products, or de-carbonisation policies affecting basic oxygen furnace steelmaking.

3.2. Emerging specialisation and a widening internal trade gap

Despite the overall production decline, specialisation patterns within the EU became more pronounced. In 2025, Slovakia showed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA=14.64) and specialisation (RSCA=0.87) in this product. In contrast, large economies like France (RSCA=-0.98) and Sweden (RSCA=-0.97) showed negative specialisation, meaning they are strongly oriented towards importing this product. This points to an intra-EU reorganisation, with some member states becoming net exporters while others become heavily dependent on both intra-EU and extra-EU supplies.

Conclusion

The EU market for hot-rolled patterned plate (CN 720840) from 2015 to 2025 was defined by three overarching trends: a structural improvement in its external trade balance driven by a sharper fall in import volumes than export volumes; a complete overhaul of its import supply chains, with the collapse of Russian flows being replaced by Western Balkan and Turkish suppliers; and a severe contraction of its domestic production base. This has resulted in a market with higher price levels, greater volatility in trade relationships, and a more specialised internal division of labour among member states. The EU has moved from being a net importer to a marginal net exporter of this product in value terms, but its reduced production capacity leaves it more reliant on a reshuffled set of external suppliers.