Market evolution: Cosmetics and toiletries (CN 3307) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of CN 3307 — a broad category encompassing shaving preparations, personal deodorants, bath and shower products, room deodorisers, depilatories, and other perfumery or cosmetic preparations — in the European Union's extra-EU commerce between 2015 and 2025. Over this decade, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter in this product group, with the trade surplus widening from €610 million to €820 million. Yet behind this headline growth lie three powerful and interlinked dynamics: a pronounced shift from volume expansion to price-driven revenue growth, a structural reshuffling of trade partners driven by Brexit, COVID-19, and geopolitical conflict, and a marked divergence in the trajectories of individual product sub-segments. Together, these forces have transformed the competitive landscape of the EU's cosmetics and toiletries trade.

The Scope & Definitions page details the product coverage and the sub-headings bundled within CN 3307.

1. The Price Pivot: Surging Values Amid Stagnant or Declining Volumes

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the decoupling of traded values from traded volumes. While headline export and import values grew handsomely, physical quantities either stagnated or declined, indicating that rising unit prices — not expanding market volumes — drove the headline gains.

1.1 Export revenues grew 44% while volumes fell 8%

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total extra-EU exports of CN 3307 rose from €1.60 billion to €2.31 billion (+44.1%). Over the same period, however, exported quantities declined from 290,851 tonnes to 266,510 tonnes (−8.4%). The reconciliation lies in unit export prices, which surged from €5,506/t to €8,659/t (+57.3%). The EU thus extracted substantially more revenue from fewer physical units shipped — a pattern consistent with a shift toward higher-value, branded, or premium-positioned products.

1.2 Import values rose faster than import volumes, though volume growth was positive

On the import side, the picture is somewhat more balanced. Total imports grew from €991 million to €1.49 billion (+50.1%), while volumes increased from 216,322 tonnes to 262,691 tonnes (+21.4%). Import unit prices climbed from €4,582/t to €5,664/t (+23.6%). The fact that import prices rose less steeply than export prices (23.6% vs. 57.3%) suggests the EU's export basket became disproportionately more expensive — likely reflecting the growing share of premium cosmetics and toiletries produced by major EU-based brands.

1.3 The EU's trade surplus widened and its net-export position strengthened

The EU's trade surplus in CN 3307 expanded from €610 million in 2015 to €820 million in 2025 (+34.3%). The net import reliance shifted from −8.3% to −20.7%, confirming that the EU became a significantly more export-oriented producer in this category. This deepening export bias is corroborated by the export propensity, which rose from 26.3% to 48.6% (+85.2%), and the trade intensity, which climbed from 37.8% to 60.9% (+61.1%). EU production of CN 3307 products, valued at €4.56 billion in the most recent year, also grew (+11.6% over the period), but the fact that exports nearly kept pace with production confirms a structural orientation toward world markets.

2. Geopolitical Disruptions Reshaped Trade Partners and Supply Chains

The decade was punctuated by three major external shocks — Brexit (completed in early 2020), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021), and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022) — each of which left visible imprints on the EU's partner geography for CN 3307.

2.1 The United Kingdom: a dominant but slowly evolving partner

The United Kingdom remains the EU's single largest trade partner in CN 3307 by a wide margin. In 2025, the UK accounted for €783 million in imports into the EU (52.6% of total extra-EU imports) and €418 million in EU exports (18.1% of extra-EU exports). EU imports from the UK grew +32.0% over the period, while EU exports to the UK barely moved (+1.0%). This widening asymmetry reflects, in part, the continuation of deep supply-chain integration between the UK cosmetics industry and EU manufacturers, compounded by post-Brexit customs formalities that may have re-routed some intra-EU procurement to the UK while making EU-to-UK exports marginally less competitive.

2.2 The Ukraine war redirected EU exports toward new frontiers

The Russian Federation was the EU's second-largest export market in 2015 (€202 million) but saw a −23.9% decline to €154 million by 2025, driven by sanctions and the withdrawal of Western consumer-goods companies. In contrast, Ukraine surged from €27 million to €82 million (+204.8%), suggesting a rapid reorientation of European brands toward the Ukrainian consumer market. Meanwhile, EU exports to Türkiye (+70.6%) and the United Arab Emirates (+32.2%) expanded, pointing to a broader diversification toward the Middle East and Eurasia.

2.3 China and India emerged as fast-growing import sources

On the import side, China and India recorded the most dramatic growth among the EU's top import partners. Chinese imports into the EU surged +173.3% from €76 million to €209 million, while Indian imports grew +197.6% from €13 million to €40 million. Bosnia and Herzegovina saw the most extreme proportional increase (+601.5%, from €1.4 million to €10.0 million), likely reflecting contract-manufacturing shifts in the Western Balkans. A detected supply shock in Chinese import prices in 2021 (+25.3% price shift, abnormality score of 13.9) illustrates the fragility of these new supply lines during the post-COVID logistics crisis.

2.4 The United States: a breakout export destination

Among Western partners, the United States stood out with EU exports nearly doubling from €88 million to €171 million (+93.0%). Switzerland likewise saw EU exports grow by +95.9% to €176 million. These gains partially offset the decline in Russian-bound exports and reflect the strong global demand for EU-origin cosmetics and toiletries brands.

2.5 Within the EU, Italy and Poland were the fastest-growing exporters

The EU Member State breakdown reveals notable internal shifts. Italy nearly doubled its extra-EU exports from €154 million to €299 million (+94.7%), while Poland grew by +64.4% to €248 million. Both countries strengthened their specialisation in CN 3307: Italy's RCA stands at 1.81 (RSca 0.29) and Poland's RCA at 1.81 (RSca 0.29), making them among the EU's most specialised exporters in this product group alongside Croatia (RCA 2.42) and Denmark (RCA 1.88). France (+39.1% to €379 million) and Spain (+36.5% to €280 million) also contributed significantly, with France overtaking Germany as the EU's largest exporter by value in 2025.

3. A Bifurcated Product Mix: Room Deodorisers and Cosmetics Expand, While Shaving and Bath Products Contract

The aggregate growth in CN 3307 trade conceals sharply divergent trajectories across the six sub-segments. Two categories — room deodorisers (330749) and miscellaneous cosmetics (330790) — drove the bulk of expansion, while shaving products (330710) and bath/shower preparations (330730) recorded substantial volume contractions.

3.1 Room deodorisers (330749): the fastest-growing import segment

Import volumes of preparations for perfuming or deodorising rooms surged from 57,872 tonnes in 2015 to 86,170 tonnes in 2025 (+48.9%), with import values rising from €205 million to €379 million (+84.5%). On the export side, volumes were broadly stable (53,883t → 49,648t), but export values nearly doubled from €271 million to €483 million (+78.6%) thanks to soaring unit prices (€5,024/t → €9,718/t). This sub-segment captures the booming consumer demand for home fragrance products — diffusers, scented sprays, and similar items — a category that has benefited from post-pandemic "cocooning" and home-nesting trends.

3.2 Miscellaneous cosmetics (330790): consistent volume and value growth on both sides

The catch-all category of depilatories, perfumery, toilet preparations and other cosmetics (330790) showed the most balanced growth. Export volumes grew from 60,219 tonnes to 78,902 tonnes (+31.0%) and export values rose from €449 million to €715 million (+59.2%). Import volumes expanded from 43,570 tonnes to 63,388 tonnes (+45.5%) and import values climbed from €190 million to €353 million (+86.2%). The robust double-digit price increases on both the import (€4,354/t → €5,572/t) and export (€7,452/t → €9,054/t) sides are consistent with the global premiumisation trend in skincare and cosmetics.

3.3 Personal deodorants (330720): the largest segment by value, but volume-stagnant

Personal deodorants remain the single largest sub-category by export value (€880 million in 2025, 38.1% of total CN 3307 exports). However, export volumes peaked at 104,034 tonnes in 2018 before declining to 92,081 tonnes in 2025, while export prices surged from €6,075/t to €9,554/t (+57.3%). On the import side, volumes rose modestly from 62,540 tonnes to 67,625 tonnes (+8.1%), with values climbing from €384 million to €546 million (+42.3%). The deodorant market thus mirrors the broader CN 3307 pattern: consumers are buying higher-priced products (natural, aluminium-free, refillable formats) even as physical volumes plateau.

3.4 Bath and shower preparations (330730): a clear decline

The bath and shower segment experienced the steepest contraction among all sub-categories. Export volumes fell from 46,578 tonnes in 2015 to just 22,964 tonnes in 2025 (−50.7%), despite a moderate rise in export values per tonne (€2,557/t → €3,219/t). Total export value consequently declined from €119 million to €74 million (−37.9%). Import volumes were relatively flat (18,126t → 19,968t). The decline in EU bath-and-shower exports likely reflects competitive pressure from lower-cost Asian producers and shifting consumer preferences toward multi-functional or minimalist personal-care routines.

3.5 Shaving preparations (330710): contracting on both sides of the ledger

Shaving preparations also contracted meaningfully. Export volumes declined from 35,331 tonnes to 22,038 tonnes (−37.6%) and export values fell from €184 million to €145 million (−21.2%). Import volumes dropped from 31,405 tonnes to 19,990 tonnes (−36.3%), though import values fell more gently from €137 million to €101 million (−26.4%) due to rising unit prices. These declines are consistent with long-term structural trends such as reduced daily shaving frequency, the rise of beard culture, and competition from direct-to-consumer subscription blade brands.

3.6 Trade concentration decreased, signalling broader market diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for the EU's extra-EU exports fell from 971 to 597 (−38.6%), and for imports from 3,830 to 3,132 (−18.2%). This decline in concentration indicates that both the EU's export destinations and its import sources became more diversified over the decade — a positive development for supply resilience. The volatility analysis further shows that import flows from the UAE (CV 0.89) and Russia (CV 0.77) were the most volatile, while UK import flows were the most stable (CV 0.08).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 3307 over 2015–2025 tells a story of resilience through premiumisation and diversification. Despite stagnating or declining physical volumes in several key segments, the EU's cosmetics and toiletries industry generated substantially more revenue by moving up the value chain. The trade surplus widened, export propensity nearly doubled, and production continued to grow. Geopolitical shocks — Brexit, COVID-19, and the war in Ukraine — reshaped the partner geography, reducing dependence on Russia while opening new opportunities in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the United States. At the product level, room deodorisers and miscellaneous cosmetics emerged as growth engines, while shaving and bath products entered structural decline. Looking ahead, the continued rise of import competition from China and India, combined with potential tariff and regulatory shifts, will test the EU's ability to sustain its price premium in a market where consumer preferences evolve rapidly.