Market evolution: Cosmetics (CN 3304) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in beauty, make-up, skin care, and manicure/pedicure preparations (Combined Nomenclature code 3304) over the period 2015–2025. The European Union is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of cosmetics, and CN 3304 captures a broad range of products—from foundations and sunscreens to eye make-up and nail care. Drawing on annual trade data, this analysis identifies the principal dynamics that have shaped the sector over the past decade: robust growth underpinned by premiumisation, a significant geographic reorientation of trade flows toward Asia, and increasing product-level concentration in skin care. Despite external shocks—including the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and geopolitical tensions—the EU cosmetics trade surplus has nearly doubled, confirming the sector's structural competitiveness.

1. Robust Expansion and a Widening Trade Surplus

EU exports have grown faster than imports, nearly doubling the sectoral trade surplus

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU exports of CN 3304 products rose from €8.37 billion to €15.27 billion, an increase of 82.5%. Over the same period, imports grew more moderately, from €2.91 billion to €4.93 billion (+69.3%). The resulting trade balance widened from €5.45 billion to €10.34 billion (+89.5%), underscoring the EU's dominant net-exporter position in global cosmetics.

The net import reliance indicator moved from −31% to −196%, confirming that the EU has become far more export-oriented relative to its domestic absorption over the decade. Export propensity rose from 38.8% to 95.5%, while trade intensity climbed from 46.9% to 96.5%.

Volume growth has been supplemented by significant unit-value appreciation

The expansion has not been purely volume-driven. Export quantities increased by 30.3% (from 463,442 t to 603,712 t), while export unit values rose by 40.1% (from €18,058/t to €25,294/t). Similarly, import quantities grew 35.3% while import unit values rose 25.2%. This pattern—value growth outpacing volume growth—points to a premiumisation dynamic: the EU is increasingly trading higher-value cosmetics rather than simply selling more units.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary setback, but the recovery was swift

The year 2020 marks a visible trough in the data. Import unit values fell across nearly every sub-segment—eye make-up import prices dropped to €29,491/t (from €36,833/t the year before), manicure/pedicure prices dipped to €12,932/t, and lip make-up import prices fell to €33,748/t—reflecting the collapse in demand linked to lockdowns and reduced social activity. However, by 2022 both volumes and values had recovered to or exceeded pre-pandemic levels. EU production grew from €8.72 billion to €15.63 billion (+79.4%) over the full period, largely tracking export growth.

2. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of Asian Markets and the Brexit Effect

South Korea has become the EU's single largest import supplier for cosmetics

Perhaps the most dramatic shift in the EU's cosmetics trade geography has been the surge of South Korean imports. From a mere €39.0 million in 2015, EU imports from Korea rose to €1.06 billion in 2025—an extraordinary increase of 2,628%. This is by far the highest growth rate among all top import partners and reflects the global "K-beauty" phenomenon, which has brought Korean skincare innovations (essences, cushion compacts, serums) into the European mainstream. Notably, Korean imports also exhibit the highest volatility among EU suppliers (coefficient of variation of 0.86), suggesting that this trade is still growing rapidly and has not yet reached a stable pattern.

China has also become the EU's top extra-EU export destination

On the export side, EU shipments to China surged from €528 million to €2.10 billion (+298.1%), making China the largest single-country export market for EU cosmetics by 2025. This growth reflects both the expanding Chinese middle class and the strong brand recognition of European luxury cosmetics. Meanwhile, exports to the United States grew more steadily (+61.2% to €2.02 billion), and exports to Singapore (+82.5% to €984 million) and the United Arab Emirates (+96.3% to €628 million) highlight the growing importance of Asian and Middle Eastern hubs as re-distribution centres for European cosmetics.

Brexit has reshaped UK–EU cosmetics flows in asymmetric ways

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market is visible in the data. EU imports from the UK fell from €967 million to €668 million (−30.9%), with a minimum of €576 million recorded during the transition period. At the same time, however, EU exports to the UK continued to grow (+35.7%), suggesting that UK consumers maintained strong demand for EU cosmetics even as regulatory divergence and border formalities complicated the reverse flow. A notable price shock in 2021 is detected in EU imports from the UK—a 44.6% abnormal price shift in the first year of full Brexit implementation, affecting flows representing 28.1% of import value at that time.

The decline of Russia as an export market reflects geopolitical realignment

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €634 million to €496 million (−21.8%), with a trough at €428 million, reflecting the impact of sanctions and commercial retrenchment following 2022. Russia remains in the top seven export partners, but its share has eroded as EU exporters redirected flows toward Asia and the Middle East.

Import concentration has declined markedly, while export concentration remains stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,173 to 1,557 (−28.3%), moving from a moderately concentrated to a more competitive sourcing structure. This decline reflects the diversification of import origins—particularly the rise of Korea and Canada as suppliers, offsetting the declining share of the UK. Export HHI, already low at 701, fell marginally to 652 (−7.0%), consistent with a broad and stable export base.

3. Skin Care Dominance and Divergent Product-Level Dynamics

Skin care and sun care preparations (CN 330499) account for the overwhelming majority of trade

The sub-segment "Beauty or make-up preparations and preparations for the care of the skin" (CN 330499) dominates both sides of EU cosmetics trade. In 2025, it accounted for €12.06 billion in exports (79% of the total) and €3.71 billion in imports (75%). Export volumes in this segment grew from 415,112 t to 551,362 t (+32.8%), while export unit values climbed from €15,304/t to €21,871/t (+42.9%). Import volumes rose from 108,047 t to 151,237 t (+39.9%) with unit values increasing from €18,754/t to €24,508/t (+30.7%). The skin care segment is thus the engine of the entire CN 3304 trade expansion.

Lip make-up and powders have been the fastest-growing sub-segments

While skin care dominates in absolute terms, lip make-up preparations (CN 330410) and powders (CN 330491) have recorded the fastest growth in percentage terms. Lip make-up exports more than doubled from €649 million to €1.34 billion (+106.5%), with export unit values reaching €83,853/t in 2025—by far the highest of any sub-segment, reflecting the premium positioning of European lip products. Powder exports grew from €294 million to €655 million (+122.5%), with unit values rising from €35,836/t to €52,694/t. Lip make-up imports also surged (+113.4%), with volumes nearly doubling from 7,078 t to 13,840 t, suggesting growing European consumer appetite for imported (particularly Asian) lip products.

Manicure and pedicure preparations have contracted

In contrast, manicure/pedicure preparations (CN 330430) are the only sub-segment to record a decline on both sides of the ledger. Export values fell from €241 million to €196 million (−18.4%), and export volumes dropped from 14,969 t to 9,570 t (−36.1%). Import volumes also decreased from 12,813 t to 11,486 t (−10.4%). This likely reflects shifting consumer preferences away from traditional nail products and toward skin care and multi-functional beauty items.

France remains the EU's undisputed cosmetics export powerhouse

At the Member State level, France accounts for the largest share of EU cosmetics exports, with €6.94 billion in 2025 (up from €4.10 billion in 2015, +69.0%). France also has the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) at 0.52 with an RCA of 3.17, confirming deep structural specialisation. Germany (€1.83 billion, +51.6%) and Italy (€1.36 billion, +107.0%) follow. Notably, Spain has emerged as a major exporter, with export values soaring from €307 million to €1.08 billion (+250.5%), while the Netherlands saw exports grow from €186 million to €715 million (+283.7%). Poland also stands out with an RSCA of 0.25 and an RCA of 1.66, reflecting its growing role as a cosmetics manufacturing hub in Central Europe (exports: €492 million → €958 million, +94.8%).

Conclusion

The EU cosmetics trade (CN 3304) has expanded strongly over the 2015–2025 period, with exports nearly doubling in value to over €15 billion and the trade surplus reaching €10.3 billion. Three dynamics stand out. First, premiumisation has been a key driver: unit values have risen substantially across most sub-segments, meaning the EU has gained more from trading higher-value products than from sheer volume expansion. Second, Asia has become the central theatre of EU cosmetics trade—South Korea is now the top import supplier (up 2,628%), China is the top export destination (up 298%), and Singapore and the UAE serve as vital redistribution hubs. This geographic reorientation has coincided with reduced reliance on traditional European partners: the UK's share in imports has declined post-Brexit, and Russia's export share has diminished under sanctions. Third, the product mix has tilted decisively toward skin care (CN 330499), which now accounts for roughly 80% of exports, while nail care is the only sub-segment in structural decline. France remains the anchor of EU cosmetics exports, but the rapid rise of Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands suggests an increasingly polycentric European production landscape. Import concentration has fallen markedly, indicating a more diversified supply base—even as the surge in Korean imports introduces new dependency risks, as reflected in their high volatility.