Market evolution: Lip makeup (CN 330410) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in lip make-up preparations (CN code 330410) over the 2015–2025 period. By examining the provided data, we identify key trends in volume, value, geographic concentration, and strategic positioning. The EU's trade in this cosmetics sub-sector has been characterized by robust growth, a strengthening competitive position, and significant shifts in the geography of both supply and demand.
1. Sustained Growth in EU Export Dominance
The EU has markedly strengthened its position as a net exporter of lip make-up products over the decade, with trade volumes and values exhibiting strong growth.
Export growth significantly outpaces import growth
Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports more than doubled, rising by 106.5% to reach €1.34 billion. Import value also grew strongly (113.6%), but from a lower base, reaching €461 million. This differential growth solidified the EU's trade surplus, which expanded by 103% to €880 million by 2025 (General Overview).
Rising prices reflect a shift to higher-value products
The unit value of EU exports increased by 35% over the period, reaching €83,853 per tonne in 2025. This suggests a shift in the export basket towards higher-premium products, consistent with the strong position of European luxury and cosmetic brands. In contrast, the price of imports grew only 9.2%, indicating that the EU sources more standardized, lower-cost products from abroad (General Overview).
Internal production underpins the export surge
The growth in exports is supported by a significant increase in EU production value, which rose by an estimated 39.9% to €1.2 billion by 2025. This indicates that the export expansion is largely driven by the EU's own manufacturing base rather than just re-export activity (Market Structure).
2. A Diversifying but Geographically Rebalanced Trade Map
The geographic profile of the EU's trade partners has evolved dramatically, highlighting the rise of Asian markets and the changing role of traditional partners.
China emerges as a pivotal partner on both sides of the trade ledger
China's role in this sector has transformed. EU exports to China grew by an extraordinary 1,027%, making it the third-largest export destination by 2025. Simultaneously, China became the EU's largest source of imports, with trade growing by 527%. This dual growth underscores China's role as both a massive consumer market and a major production hub for lip cosmetics (General Overview).
The United Kingdom's trade relationship has declined post-Brexit
The UK, while remaining a key partner, has seen its share diminish significantly. EU exports to the UK grew modestly (8.2%), while imports from the UK fell sharply by 51.5%. This divergence likely reflects the new trade frictions and regulatory barriers introduced by Brexit, leading to some trade diversion (General Overview).
The EU's export market is becoming more diffuse, while its import sources are consolidating
The concentration of EU exports (measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, HHI) decreased by 9%, indicating greater diversification across destination markets. Conversely, import concentration increased by 8.6%, showing a higher reliance on a narrower set of suppliers, primarily China (General Overview).
3. Heightened Specialisation and Emerging Vulnerabilities
The sector's structure within the EU shows a clear trend towards greater specialization among member states, alongside growing trade intensity and associated vulnerabilities.
France and Italy cement their positions as export powerhouses
The trade data reveals a high degree of specialization. France, the leading exporter, increased its shipments by 149% to €677 million. Italy also saw explosive growth (155.5%). In 2025, these two countries, along with Croatia, exhibited the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) scores, confirming their dominant specialisation in lip cosmetics production and export (Market Structure).
The EU economy is more deeply intertwined with global lip cosmetics markets
Metrics of trade openness have nearly doubled. The trade intensity ratio (total trade as a share of production) grew from 52% to 104%, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 46% to 105%. By 2025, exports exceeded the estimated value of EU production, a feature consistent with a highly integrated global value chain where intra-firm trade is significant (Autonomy & Vulnerability).
Supply chain risks are concentrated in specific partner countries
Volatility analysis shows that trade flows with some partners, notably South Korea and Thailand for imports, and Russia and China for exports, are highly variable (high coefficient of variation). Furthermore, a significant price shock was detected in 2022 for imports from the United States, which commands a large value share (Volatility & Shocks). This highlights potential vulnerabilities in sourcing and market access.
Conclusion
The EU's lip make-up sector has exhibited strong dynamism from 2015 to 2025, characterized by robust export-led growth and an enhanced competitive stance. The Union has successfully leveraged its production strengths in France and Italy to capitalize on growing global demand, particularly in Asia. However, this success has also led to greater economic integration, making the sector more sensitive to external shocks and geopolitical shifts. The significant rebalancing of trade flows away from the UK and towards China underscores the sector's adaptation to a changing global landscape. Future resilience will depend on maintaining high-value exports, diversifying supply chains, and navigating the trade complexities of key partner markets.