Market evolution: Eye makeup (CN 330420) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union is a major global player in the eye make-up preparations market (CN 330420). Over the 2015–2025 period, EU external trade in this product category has been shaped by several powerful forces: the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, geopolitical sanctions, and the broader premiumisation trend in cosmetics. This report examines how EU exports and imports of eye make-up preparations evolved over the decade, identifies the main partner-level dynamics, and assesses the EU's structural position in terms of specialisation, concentration, and vulnerability. The data covers EU trade in CN 330420 with non-EU countries at annual frequency.

1. Growth Driven by Price Rather Than Volume

1.1 The EU trade surplus expanded substantially

Over the period, the EU's trade surplus in eye make-up preparations grew from €487 million in the first year to €651 million in the last — an increase of 33.5%. This confirms the EU's role as a strong net exporter of prestige and mass-market eye cosmetics. The net import reliance indicator deepened from −34.9% to −127.7%, meaning the EU's net export position relative to domestic absorption more than tripled.

1.2 Export value rose while volumes stagnated

A striking feature of this decade is that EU export value grew by 22.6% (from €832 million to €1,020 million) even as export volumes fell slightly by 2.2% (from 14,701 tonnes to 14,372 tonnes). The entire value increase was therefore driven by rising unit export prices, which climbed 25.4% — from €56,590/t to €70,968/t. This is consistent with the premiumisation trend in cosmetics, where European brands command increasingly higher price points in global markets.

1.3 Import dynamics told a different story

On the import side, value grew modestly by 7.2% (from €345 million to €370 million), but this was the result of two opposing forces: import volumes rose by 9.6% (from 9,588 tonnes to 10,505 tonnes) while unit import prices declined by 2.2% (from €35,944/t to €35,169/t). The growing volume of imports at stable-to-declining prices suggests increasing competition from lower-cost suppliers, particularly in Asia.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.4 EU production value surged

According to PRODCOM production data, the value of EU domestic production of eye make-up preparations rose from €697 million to €1,131 million — an increase of 62.4%. This confirms that the industry expanded both its domestic output and its export footprint, with the rising export unit values reflecting genuine product and brand upgrading rather than mere inflation.

2. Shifting Trade Partnerships: Brexit, Sanctions, and the Asian Surge

2.1 The United States became the EU's dominant export market

EU exports to the United States grew from €186 million to €289 million (+55.6%), making the US by far the largest single destination — accounting for roughly 28% of EU extra-EU eye make-up exports by the end of the period. Exports to the US also showed remarkably low volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.13), indicating a stable and mature trade relationship.

2.2 Brexit reshaped EU–UK trade flows

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market had profound effects on both sides. EU imports from the UK collapsed from €121 million to €41 million (−65.9%), as the UK was reclassified from intra-EU to extra-EU trade and non-tariff barriers took effect. On the export side, EU shipments to the UK fell from €167 million to €133 million (−20.7%). UK import flows also became highly volatile (CV of 0.48), suggesting ongoing adjustment and supply-chain reconfiguration.

2.3 Russia declined sharply after sanctions

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €102 million to €47 million (−54.2%), a decline consistent with EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and broader geopolitical decoupling. Russia dropped from the third-largest export destination to a much smaller market. Export volatility to Russia was high (CV of 0.36), reflecting the abrupt nature of the decline.

2.4 Asian suppliers gained ground in EU imports

Several Asian countries dramatically increased their presence in EU import markets:

Source: Top partners by value

China more than doubled its shipments to the EU, reaching €159 million and becoming the largest extra-EU supplier by value. South Korea's surge (+584%) reflects the global rise of K-beauty brands, which have carved out significant market share in European eye make-up segments.

2.5 The EU diversified its export destinations

Beyond the US, the EU expanded exports to several high-growth markets:

Source: Top partners by value

The UAE and Türkiye served as regional hub markets for the Middle East, while Switzerland and Norway — geographically close and affluent — absorbed growing volumes of premium EU cosmetics.

2.6 A price shock hit UK-bound exports in 2022

The shock detection analysis identified a notable price shock in EU exports to the UK centred on 2022 (abnormality score 2.2, −9.9% shift), which affected a significant share of export value (19.2%). A smaller but more extreme price shock was also detected in exports to Belarus (abnormality 3.9, −25% shift), likely linked to sanctions-related disruption. These events illustrate how geopolitical and regulatory shocks translated into pricing anomalies in this product category.

3. Market Structure: Specialisation, Concentration, and EU Resilience

3.1 France and Italy are the EU's specialised production hubs

Using Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) data, the most specialised EU Member States in eye make-up production in 2025 were:

Italy and France together account for over 41% of EU eye make-up production and hold strong comparative advantages, consistent with their positions as global centres for luxury and prestige cosmetics. At the other end, countries such as Cyprus (RCA ≈ 0), Ireland (RCA ≈ 0.005), and Portugal (RCA ≈ 0.03) show negligible specialisation.

3.2 France and Germany dominate EU extra-EU exports

Looking at which EU Member States drive external trade:

France is the leading EU exporter by a wide margin, benefiting from its luxury cosmetics cluster. Germany — while still the second-largest exporter — saw a slight decline, potentially reflecting shifting production patterns. Notably, Belgium more than doubled its exports, likely benefiting from its role as a logistics and re-export hub.

3.3 Import concentration increased while export markets remained diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,291 to 2,467 (+7.7%), while the volume-based import HHI surged from 2,934 to 5,353 (+82.5%). This indicates that EU import sources became significantly more concentrated — particularly in volume terms — with China and South Korea absorbing an increasing share. By contrast, export concentration remained low and stable (HHI around 1,155), reflecting a well-diversified portfolio of destination markets.

3.4 The EU's trade intensity nearly doubled

The trade intensity ratio — trade as a share of production — rose from 51.4% to 93.5% (+81.9%), while export propensity surged from 43.1% to 91.2% (+111.9%). This means the EU eye make-up industry has become far more export-oriented over the decade, with a growing share of production destined for non-EU markets. While this reflects commercial success, it also implies greater exposure to external demand shocks and trade policy disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU eye make-up preparations market (CN 330420) has undergone significant structural transformation over 2015–2025. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with a trade surplus reaching €651 million and export unit values rising by over 25% — a clear sign of premiumisation. EU production value grew by 62.4%, driven by France, Italy, and increasingly by newer EU producers such as Belgium, Poland, and Spain.

At the same time, the trade geography shifted markedly. The loss of seamless UK market access after Brexit cost the EU billions in cumulative trade, while sanctions against Russia removed another major destination. These gaps were partly offset by surging exports to the US, Switzerland, Norway, Türkiye, and the UAE. On the import side, China and South Korea emerged as dominant suppliers, raising the concentration of EU import sources and increasing exposure to supply-chain risks.

The EU's growing export orientation — with trade intensity and export propensity both nearly doubling — signals both strength and vulnerability. While the industry's competitive advantage remains anchored in French and Italian luxury brands, its increasing dependence on extra-EU markets makes it more sensitive to geopolitical shocks, currency fluctuations, and regulatory divergence.