Market evolution: Oral hygiene preparations (CN 3306) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in oral hygiene preparations under Combined Nomenclature code 3306 — a category encompassing toothpaste and dentifrices (CN 330610), dental floss (CN 330620), and other preparations such as mouthwashes and denture fixatives (CN 330690). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a major global exporter of these products, with total export values rising by 54% to over €1.3 billion. At the same time, import patterns underwent significant structural changes, most notably a sharp rise in Chinese supply and a decline in UK-origin imports following Brexit. The analysis below draws on overall trade flows, partner-level breakdowns, EU member-state data, concentration metrics, production data, volatility indicators, and vulnerability measures.

1. The EU's widening trade surplus: a decade of export-led growth

1.1 Export growth outpaced imports in both value and volume

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of CN 3306 products grew from €867 million to €1.335 billion (+54.0%), while import values rose from €345 million to €482 million (+39.8%). The trade surplus consequently widened from €522 million to €853 million — an increase of 63.4%. In volume terms, export quantities rose by 29.5% (from 155,772 tonnes to 201,657 tonnes), whereas import volumes actually declined by 12.2% (from 67,915 tonnes to 59,657 tonnes). This divergence — rising import values on shrinking volumes — points to a steep increase in the unit price of imported goods.

Source: General overview

1.2 Import prices surged while export prices rose more moderately

A striking feature of the period is the asymmetric price evolution. The average unit price of EU imports climbed from €5,077/t to €8,083/t (+59.2%), while export prices rose from €5,565/t to €6,620/t (+19.0%). By 2025, imported goods were on average 22% more expensive per tonne than exported ones, a reversal from 2015 when the EU enjoyed a slight price premium on its exports. This widening import-price gap likely reflects the growing share of higher-value specialty products (such as dental floss, which commands unit prices above €17,000/t) in the import basket, as well as broader inflationary pressures in global supply chains.

1.3 The EU's net import reliance collapsed to a deep negative value

The net import reliance indicator, which stood at +8.1% in 2015 (implying a modest dependence on external suppliers), plunged to −132.6% by 2025. Negative values signify that the EU exports far more than it imports — effectively a structural surplus. The net import reliance chart shows this shift accelerated after 2020. Meanwhile, the export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — surged from 28.1% to 90.6%, indicating that an increasingly large share of EU-manufactured oral hygiene products is destined for non-EU markets. The trade intensity ratio (exports + imports as a share of production) also nearly doubled from 47.4% to 92.9%, underscoring the sector's deepening integration into global markets.

2. A reshaping of trade partners: China's rise and the UK's decline

2.1 China became the EU's fastest-growing import supplier

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the meteoric rise of China as a supplier. Chinese exports of CN 3306 products to the EU grew from €28 million in 2015 to €113 million in 2025 — a near-fourfold increase (+297%). Over the same period, Switzerland also emerged as a major supplier (from €22 million to €68 million, +215%), while the United Arab Emirates entered the top tier (€3 million to €10 million, +273%). These three partners collectively illustrate a broadening of the EU's import base beyond its traditional Western European and North American suppliers.

Source: Top import partners

2.2 Brexit contributed to the contraction of UK trade flows with the EU

The United Kingdom remained the EU's single largest import source throughout the period, but its share eroded significantly: import values fell from €198 million to €139 million (−29.9%). This decline is consistent with the well-documented trade-disrupting effects of Brexit, which introduced customs formalations, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory divergence from January 2021. On the export side, the UK remained the EU's top destination (growing from €199 million to €285 million, +43.8%), though the growth rate was slower than for several other partners, suggesting some dampening effect. Notably, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell by 48.7% (from 3,665 to 1,881), reflecting precisely this diversification away from UK dependence.

2.3 Eastern and Southern neighbourhoods emerged as key export growth markets

EU export growth was powered not only by the UK but especially by fast-growing emerging and near-neighbour markets. Ukraine (+158.2%), Türkiye (+66.2%), and the United Arab Emirates (+135.4%) all saw their EU purchases more than double or nearly so. Switzerland, too, doubled its imports from the EU (€36 million to €75 million, +106.7%). Japan, by contrast, bucked the trend: EU exports to Japan fell from €81 million to €47 million (−42.2%), suggesting either a loss of competitive position or a shift in Japanese sourcing patterns. The broad geographic diversification of EU export destinations is mirrored by a modest decline in the export-side HHI (from 839 to 709, −15.5%), confirming that no single market became more dominant.

Source: Top export partners

2.4 Supply-side volatility was concentrated in emerging partners

Volatility analysis reveals that import relationships with newer or smaller suppliers were considerably more volatile than traditional ones. Mexico (coefficient of variation of 1.07) and Thailand (0.92) topped the list, followed by Russia (0.81), Vietnam (0.97), and the UAE (0.52). By contrast, the United States (0.08) and the UK (0.25) showed relatively stable import flows. On the export side, flows were generally more stable, with the UK (CV of 0.06) and Japan (0.10) the steadiest. One notable shock event was detected: a price shock in EU exports to Türkiye in 2021, with an abnormality score of 12.8 and a unit-price drop of 16.1%, possibly linked to the lira depreciation and pandemic-related demand shifts.

3. Production restructuring and product-mix shifts underpin the trade transformation

3.1 EU production volumes declined while values rose, signalling a shift upmarket

Despite the strong export performance, EU production volumes (measured in number of items) actually fell by 24.3%, from 1.54 billion units in 2015 to 1.16 billion in 2025. Yet production values rose by 43.8%, from €989 million to €1.422 billion. This apparent paradox — fewer units but higher total value — strongly suggests that EU manufacturers have moved toward higher-value-added preparations (premium toothpastes, specialised oral care products, whitening kits) while offshoring or reducing output of lower-margin commodity items.

3.2 Dentifrices dominated exports, but other preparations and dental floss grew faster in value

The product segment breakdown reveals distinct dynamics across the three sub-categories:

Export value growth by sub-category (2015 → 2025):

Source: Product segment breakdown

Dentifrices (330610) remained the largest export category, growing by 74.1% in value and 32.6% in volume. The "other preparations" category (330690), which includes mouthwashes and denture adhesives, grew more modestly at +29.8% in value (and +24.9% in volume). Dental floss (330620), while still the smallest segment, more than doubled in export value (+103.4%) with volume growth of 51.4%, suggesting both higher demand and significant price appreciation (export unit prices rose from €20,109/t to €27,026/t).

3.3 Import prices for dentifrices nearly doubled, while dental floss imports grew strongly in volume

On the import side, the most striking price movement occurred in dentifrices: the import unit price surged from €4,007/t to €6,791/t (+69.4%) even as volumes fell from 46,967 tonnes to 40,860 tonnes. This suggests that the EU increasingly sources higher-specification or branded dentifrices from abroad. Other oral-hygiene preparations (330690) also saw sharp price inflation (+48.1%, from €6,330/t to €9,379/t). Dental floss imports, by contrast, grew substantially in volume (from 2,241 tonnes to 3,568 tonnes, +59.2%) while prices remained relatively stable around €17,000–19,000/t, indicating growing consumer adoption of floss at competitive price points.

Import price evolution by sub-category (€/t):

3.4 A small number of EU member states drove the export expansion

Member-state data shows that export growth was concentrated in a handful of countries. Italy saw the most dramatic expansion (+134%, from €78 million to €182 million), followed by Slovakia (+409%, from €23 million to €117 million), Poland (+49.6%, from €129 million to €193 million), and Germany (+42.9%, from €163 million to €233 million). Ireland, the single largest EU exporter, remained roughly flat at €233–234 million. On the import side, Germany (+100.3%) and the Netherlands (+107.3%) saw their inbound flows roughly double, while Italy's imports contracted by 27.4%. Specialisation analysis confirms that Slovakia (RSCA of 0.62) and Poland (RSCA of 0.42) have developed strong comparative advantages in this product category, consistent with their role as manufacturing hubs for multinational oral-care companies.

Conclusion

The EU's oral hygiene preparations market (CN 3306) underwent substantial structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc solidified its position as a dominant net exporter, with the trade surplus widening to €853 million and net import reliance swinging deep into negative territory. This was achieved not through volume expansion alone but through a strategic shift toward higher-value production — fewer units manufactured but at significantly higher prices. On the import side, the most consequential development was China's emergence as the EU's second-largest supplier (overtaking the United States), a quadrupling of import values that simultaneously diversified the EU's sourcing base (the import HHI fell by nearly half) and raised the average price of imported goods. The UK's share of EU imports declined in the wake of Brexit, though it remained the top single partner. Export growth was geographically broad, with strong gains in Türkiye, Ukraine, Switzerland, and the UAE partially offsetting a sharp decline in exports to Japan. Going forward, the sector's heavy export orientation (export propensity near 91%) makes it sensitive to global demand fluctuations and exchange-rate movements, but its diversified partner base provides a meaningful buffer against concentrated supply or demand shocks.