Market evolution: Deodorants and antiperspirants (CN 330720) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of personal deodorants and antiperspirants (CN code 330720) for the European Union with non-EU partners over the period 2015–2025. The decade was characterized by strong growth in the value of EU trade, driven by significant price increases rather than volume expansion. Concurrently, the EU's trade structure underwent major shifts, most notably becoming a strong net exporter with greatly reduced import reliance and a more diversified export portfolio.

1. Robust Value Growth Amidst Volume Stability and Rising Prices

The EU's deodorant and antiperspirant market experienced substantial growth in monetary terms, but this was almost entirely due to rising unit prices, while traded volumes remained relatively stable.

Export Performance

EU exports to non-EU countries saw their value increase by 54.4% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €570 million to €880 million. However, export quantity declined slightly by 1.8% over the same period. This divergence is explained by a 57.3% increase in export prices, from €6,075 per tonne to €9,554 per tonne. This indicates a significant shift towards higher-value products or the impact of inflationary pressures across the supply chain. (General Overview)

Import Dynamics

Imports followed a similar trend. The value of imports grew by 42.2%, from €384 million to €546 million. Import volumes increased moderately by 8.1%, while import prices rose by 31.5% to €8,068 per tonne in 2025. The slower price growth in imports compared to exports may reflect different product mixes or source markets.

Trade Balance Strengthening

The EU's trade surplus in this product category widened dramatically, growing by 79.6% from €186 million in 2015 to €334 million in 2025. This solidified the EU's position as a consistent net exporter. (General Overview)

2. A Realignment of Geographic Trade Partnerships

The period saw a significant restructuring of the EU's trading partners, characterized by a diversification away from traditional partners and toward emerging and neighboring markets.

Shift in Import Sources

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest import source, but its share fluctuated, with imports growing 43.3% in value. A major restructuring occurred elsewhere:

• Russia: Imports collapsed from €13.4 million in 2015 to a negligible €725 by 2025 (a -100% change), likely reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.
• New Suppliers: Türkiye (+186.4%), South Africa (+130.5%), and the Philippines (+29.5%) emerged as more significant sources, offsetting the loss of Russian supply.

Source: EU Trade by Partner

Diversification of Export Markets

EU exports became more diversified, with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports falling by 52.3%, indicating reduced concentration.

• Exports to the United Kingdom declined slightly (-14.1%).
• Notable growth was recorded in exports to Ukraine (+258.2%), Mexico (+180.6%), Türkiye (+149.0%), and the United Arab Emirates (+46.9%). Ukraine's surge, despite ongoing conflict, suggests it became a critical market.
• The volatility (Coefficient of Variation) of exports was generally low to medium (0.1 to 0.5) for major partners, though exports to Algeria were notably volatile (CV: 0.50). (Volatility Bars)

Geographic Shocks

Specific price shocks were detected, notably for exports to Israel in 2022 (+40.6% price shift) and to Libya in 2023 (+24.3% price shift). These events, while affecting trade flows in those specific corridors, were isolated and did not destabilize the overall market. (Supply Shocks)

3. Enhanced EU Production Capacity and Strategic Autonomy

The decade culminated in a marked increase in EU production, strengthening its net export position and reducing its reliance on external suppliers for this consumer goods sector.

Surge in Domestic Production

The value of EU production (PRODCOM 20.42.19.60) increased by 85.6% from €776 million in 2015 to an estimated €1.44 billion in 2025. This growth outpaced both export and import value growth, indicating that production is increasingly geared toward both the internal EU market and external sales. (Production Value)

Strengthened Export Competitiveness

The EU's export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose significantly from 32.5% in 2015 to 57.1% in 2025. This highlights the industry's growing international focus and competitiveness. Simultaneously, net import reliance (a negative value indicates a net exporter) shifted dramatically from near-zero (-0.4%) in 2015 to a strong -27.6% in 2025, confirming the EU as a consistent net exporter. (Export Propensity)

Internal Specialization

Within the EU, export specialization is led by Poland (RCA: 2.22) and Denmark (RCA: 1.91). Notably, large production bases like France (RCA: 1.42) and Spain (RCA: 1.41) also demonstrate strong comparative advantage. Conversely, members like Ireland and Malta show high import dependency with very low specialization scores. (Specialisation)

Conclusion

The EU market for deodorants and antiperspirants between 2015 and 2025 matured into a stronger, more autonomous, and strategically repositioned sector. Growth was value-driven, with price inflation being a key trend. Geopolitical events, most notably Brexit and sanctions against Russia, reshaped trade flows, leading to a diversification of partners for both imports and exports. The most transformative development, however, was the substantial expansion of EU production capacity, which allowed the bloc to significantly increase its export share and establish a robust net exporter position, reducing strategic vulnerability in this fast-moving consumer goods category. The market is now characterized by high internal production strength and a focused outward orientation toward a broader set of global markets.