Market evolution: Cosmetic preparations (CN 330790) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 330790 — "Depilatories and other perfumery, toilet or cosmetic preparations, n.e.s." — for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. As a residual category within the broader cosmetics and personal care sector, this product group covers a wide range of preparations including depilatories, cosmetic lotions, and other toiletry products not elsewhere specified. The EU has remained a consistent net exporter throughout the period, with both export and import values exhibiting strong growth trajectories. This report identifies the principal trends in EU trade flows, analyses shifts in partner geography and market concentration, and discusses the underlying price dynamics and supply-side shocks that have shaped the market over the decade.

1. The EU as an Expanding Net Exporter in a Growing Industry

1.1 Sustained positive trade balance with accelerating growth

Throughout the 2015–2025 period, the EU has maintained a positive trade balance for CN 330790, confirming its position as a net exporter. The trade balance grew from approximately €259 million in 2015 to €361 million in 2025, representing a cumulative increase of 39.5% (General Overview).

1.2 Import growth outpaces exports, narrowing margins

While the EU has remained a net exporter, imports have grown significantly faster than exports in percentage terms (+86.2% versus +59.2%). Import volume rose from 43,570 tonnes to 63,388 tonnes (+45.5%), and average import unit values climbed from €4,354/t to €5,572/t (+28.0%). By contrast, export volumes grew from 60,219 tonnes to 78,902 tonnes (+31.0%), with export unit values rising from €7,452/t to €9,054/t (+21.5%). This indicates that while the EU's trade surplus remains robust, the gap has been partially offset by faster-rising import values, partly reflecting the sourcing of higher-priced goods and partly reflecting upstream cost pressures.

1.3 Domestic production nearly doubles, underpinning export capacity

EU domestic production value for CN 330790 grew from approximately €903 million to €1,770 million over the period, representing a near-doubling (+95.9%) (Market Structure). This expansion in production capacity has been a key enabler of the EU's continued ability to serve both the domestic market and growing external demand. Export propensity rose from 36.7% to 39.8%, confirming that an increasing share of EU output is being channelled toward international markets (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

2. Geographic Shifts: Brexit, the Rise of Asian Sourcing, and Diversifying Export Markets

2.1 The United Kingdom emerges as the dominant bilateral partner

The most striking geographic shift has been the growing importance of the United Kingdom on both sides of the EU's trade. UK-origin imports to the EU surged from €60 million to €141 million (+136.5%), while EU exports to the UK grew from €52 million to €91 million (+74.0%). In 2025, the UK was the EU's top import partner and top export destination alike (Top partners). This rapid intensification likely reflects both the post-Brexit reclassification of UK trade from intra-EU to extra-EU flows and the persistent depth of supply-chain linkages between the EU and UK cosmetics industries.

2.2 China's rapid ascent as a source of imports

Chinese-origin imports to the EU grew from €17 million to €51 million (+204.6%), making China the third-largest import partner by 2025. This growth reflects a broader trend of Asian cosmetics manufacturing gaining market share in the EU, driven by cost competitiveness and expanding product ranges. Notably, the EU's exports to China grew even faster in percentage terms, from €9 million to €47 million (+429.3%), suggesting that the relationship is not purely one of sourcing but increasingly of two-way trade, with European premium cosmetics gaining traction among Chinese consumers.

2.3 Shifting export destinations: decline of Russia, rise of Switzerland and China

EU exports to Russia, once the third-largest destination at €86 million in 2015, declined to €60 million by 2025 (−31.1%). This decline accelerated after 2022, consistent with the impact of EU sanctions and geopolitical tensions. In contrast, exports to Switzerland grew from €28 million to €82 million (+191.9%), and exports to China rose nearly fivefold. The top export partners data reveals a significant reorientation of EU export geography away from Russia and towards East Asian and EFTA markets.

2.4 Diversification of exports, consolidation of imports

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell from 767 to 599 (−21.9%), indicating that EU export destinations have become more diversified over the period (Concentration). By contrast, the import HHI rose modestly from 1,998 to 2,154 (+7.8%), suggesting a slight concentration of sourcing toward fewer partners — driven in particular by the UK and China gaining share. This asymmetric evolution implies that the EU has been more successful in spreading export risk across a wider range of markets than in diversifying its import base.

3. Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Selective Supply-Side Shocks

3.1 Rising unit values reflect upmarket positioning and cost pressures

Across the decade, both import and export unit values have trended upward. Export prices rose from €7,452/t to €9,054/t, while import prices climbed from €4,354/t to €5,572/t. The persistent premium of EU export prices over import prices (roughly 1.6×–1.7× throughout) is consistent with the EU's role as a producer of higher-value cosmetic preparations, while importing more commoditised or mass-market products from cost-competitive origins. The price increases over the period likely reflect a combination of inflation in raw material and energy costs, premiumisation trends in cosmetics, and the impact of supply-chain disruptions.

3.2 Moderate overall volatility, with divergent partner profiles

The volatility analysis reveals that most major trading relationships exhibit relatively moderate coefficient of variation (CV) values — below 0.4 for the largest partners. However, several smaller or emerging partners show notably higher volatility:

These high-volatility relationships tend to involve partners with smaller or more episodic trade volumes, where individual contract wins or losses can create large year-on-year swings.

3.3 Discrete price shocks detected in specific bilateral flows

The shock detection analysis identified three notable events:

The 2021 price shock in imports from China (63.5% increase, with an abnormality score of 22.3) coincides with the post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions and global freight cost spikes of that period. The 2022 Turkish import shock (+82.2%) aligns with the severe depreciation of the Turkish lira and broader inflationary pressures in Türkiye during that year. These shocks, while significant in bilateral terms, were absorbed at the aggregate level without destabilising overall trade flows, thanks to the EU's diversified sourcing structure.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU has consolidated its position as a net exporter of cosmetic preparations under CN 330790, with a sustained positive trade balance and a near-doubling of domestic production. Trade volumes and values have grown substantially on both the import and export sides, though imports have grown faster in percentage terms — narrowing the surplus slightly. The geographic landscape has undergone significant transformation: the UK has become the EU's most important bilateral partner (on both sides), China has emerged rapidly as a sourcing origin and as a growing export market, and the decline of Russian exports has been offset by strong growth in Switzerland and other markets. The EU's export base has become more diversified (lower HHI), while import sourcing has concentrated slightly. Price dynamics have been broadly upward, reflecting both cost pressures and premiumisation trends, with discrete shocks concentrated in a few bilateral relationships during 2021–2022. Overall, the sector demonstrates resilience, adaptability, and a continued orientation toward higher-value-added export positioning in global cosmetic markets.