Market evolution: Air fresheners (CN 330749) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in preparations for perfuming or deodorising rooms (CN 330749) over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses air fresheners, plug-in diffusers, scented gels, sprays, and similar room-fragrance preparations—but excludes incense sticks (agarbatti) and other products that operate by burning. The EU market for this product group has grown substantially over the decade, with total exports rising from €271 million to €483 million and imports climbing from €205 million to €379 million. Three overarching dynamics define this period: a pronounced shift toward value-driven trade growth as unit prices diverge between exports and imports; a significant geographical reorientation of both export destinations and import origins; and a structural consolidation of the EU's role as a net exporter with intensifying global trade engagement. The following sections explore each of these dynamics in detail.

1. A decade of premiumisation: Value growth far outpaces volumes

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 330749 over 2015–2025 is the disconnect between the evolution of trade values and trade volumes—on both the export and import sides. While headline trade values grew robustly, the underlying volume trends tell a more nuanced story, pointing to a structural shift in the price composition of traded goods.

Export values surged while export volumes actually declined

EU exports of air fresheners rose by 78.4% in value over the decade, climbing from €270.7 million in 2015 to €483.0 million in 2025 (trade overview). However, export volumes fell by 7.9%, from 53,883 tonnes to 49,648 tonnes. This divergence is explained entirely by a steep rise in unit export prices, which nearly doubled from €5,024/t to €9,718/t (+93.4%).

This pattern is strongly indicative of premiumisation in EU exports. EU manufacturers appear to be shifting their product mix toward higher-value-added formulations—concentrated diffusers, smart-device-compatible systems, natural and organic preparations—while lower-value bulk products may be increasingly sourced from or redirected to other markets. The near-doubling of unit prices over a decade, in a consumer goods category, suggests a deliberate repositioning up the value chain rather than simple inflation.

Import volumes grew strongly, but prices rose more modestly

Imports tell a different story. Total import values grew by 84.5% (from €205.5 million to €379.0 million), but this time the growth was substantially volume-driven: import quantities rose by 48.9%, from 57,872 tonnes to 86,170 tonnes (trade overview). Unit import prices increased more moderately, from €3,550/t to €4,398/t (+23.9%).

The widening price gap between EU exports (€9,718/t) and imports (€4,398/t) in 2025 is particularly revealing. At the start of the period, EU exports commanded a premium of roughly €1,474/t over imports; by 2025, that premium had widened to over €5,300/t. This suggests that the EU is increasingly exporting sophisticated, branded, or niche preparations while importing more standardised, mass-market products—likely from lower-cost production hubs such as China and Türkiye.

The trade balance remained firmly in surplus

Throughout the entire period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 330749, meaning exports consistently exceeded imports in value terms (trade overview). The surplus grew from €65.3 million in 2015 to €103.9 million in 2025 (+59.3%), peaking at €121.1 million along the way. Despite the rapid growth in import volumes, the even faster rise in export unit prices ensured that the EU's trade surplus expanded rather than eroded—a structural advantage that underscores the competitiveness of the EU's higher-end product offering.

2. Shifting geographies: New partners emerge and export markets diversify

The second major dynamic of the 2015–2025 period is a substantial reconfiguration of the EU's trade geography. Both import origins and export destinations have shifted meaningfully, with concentration declining—particularly on the export side—and several previously marginal partners rising to prominence.

Export market concentration fell sharply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports in CN 330749, measured by value, dropped from 2,063 to 1,204 over the decade—a decline of 41.6% (concentration data). An HHI below 1,500 is generally considered to indicate a low-concentration (i.e., well-diversified) market, meaning that EU exporters moved from a moderately concentrated export structure into a notably diversified one. Import concentration also declined, but more modestly—from 2,166 to 2,018 (−6.8%)—remaining in the moderately concentrated range.

This contrast suggests that EU exporters have actively diversified their customer base, reducing dependence on any single destination, while import sourcing has remained relatively stable and concentrated around a handful of key suppliers.

The United States, Ukraine, Mexico, and Norway emerged as fast-growing export markets

Among the EU's top export partners, the most dramatic growth was registered in markets that were relatively small at the start of the period:

The United States stands out: its share of EU exports in this product category grew substantially, making it the fourth-largest destination by 2025, up from a more marginal position in 2015. This likely reflects both the expansion of European fragrance and home-care brands in the US market and the growing American consumer appetite for premium air-care products.

Ukraine and Mexico recorded explosive growth rates (+521% and +381% respectively), though from low bases. Ukraine's trajectory may partly reflect EU market integration efforts and proximity-driven trade facilitation, while Mexico's growth could be linked to the globalisation of European consumer goods brands.

By contrast, exports to Russia nearly halved (−48.7%), falling from €22.6 million to €11.6 million. This decline is consistent with the broader pattern of EU–Russia trade deterioration following geopolitical tensions and sanctions regimes, though it may also reflect currency and demand dynamics in the Russian consumer market.

The United Kingdom remained the single largest export destination throughout the period (€149.6 million in 2025, +28.4%), though its relative share in the total declined as faster-growing markets captured a larger slice of the pie.

China and Türkiye became increasingly important import sources

On the import side, the most notable shifts involved the rise of China and Türkiye:

China more than doubled its export value to the EU, rising from €46.8 million to €109.2 million, making it the largest single extra-EU import source by 2025. Türkiye similarly doubled, reaching €76.3 million. Together, these two countries accounted for nearly half of all extra-EU imports in this category by the end of the period. This pattern is consistent with the broader trend of cost-competitive manufacturing shifting to Asia and the near-shoring of production to Türkiye for the European market.

The United Arab Emirates registered the most dramatic growth rate (+2,808.5%), rising from just €243,000 to €7.1 million, suggesting the emergence of the UAE as a re-export or light-manufacturing hub for the Middle East and North Africa region.

EU member states' roles evolved, with Southern and Eastern Europe gaining ground

Among EU reporter countries, the landscape of exporters shifted notably:

Italy and Bulgaria recorded the most impressive export growth (+222% and +228% respectively), with Italy rising from €27 million to €87 million and Bulgaria from €18.5 million to €60.7 million. Italy's growth likely reflects the country's strong position in the broader fragrance and cosmetic supply chain, while Bulgaria's rise points to its emergence as a cost-competitive manufacturing base for consumer goods within the EU single market.

Germany, traditionally an industrial powerhouse, saw its exports in this category essentially stagnate (−3.1%), suggesting that production may be shifting to lower-cost EU member states.

On the import side, Romania (+159%), the Netherlands (+231%), and Poland (+88.9%) registered the strongest growth among EU importers, reflecting both their roles as distribution hubs and growing domestic consumption.

3. An increasingly open and outward-oriented EU market

The third major finding concerns the EU's overall structural position in this market: over 2015–2025, the bloc became significantly more trade-engaged, with export propensity and trade intensity both rising sharply. This outward orientation, combined with growing domestic production and diversified specialisation across member states, paints a picture of an industry in active global competition.

Export propensity more than doubled

The export propensity—the share of EU production that is exported outside the EU—rose from 25.7% to 58.7% over the period, an increase of 128.5%. Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) similarly climbed from 40.8% to 72.3% (+77.5%).

These figures indicate that the EU's air-freshener industry has become far more export-oriented. By 2025, nearly six in every ten euros of production were destined for non-EU markets—a remarkable transformation from the roughly one-in-four ratio observed at the start of the decade. This may reflect the globalisation of European consumer brands, the development of export-oriented production facilities (particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe), and growing demand for premium air-care products in non-European markets.

The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter

The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout the period, confirming that the EU is a consistent net exporter of CN 330749 products. The metric fluctuated between +1.2% (a brief moment of slight net-importer status) and −23.0% (the strongest net-exporter position), settling at −10.6% in 2025. The negative sign indicates that exports exceeded imports—meaning the EU produced more than enough to meet its own demand and shipped the surplus abroad.

EU production grew, supporting the trade expansion

EU domestic production of preparations for perfuming or deodorising rooms rose from approximately €630 million to €793 million over the period (+25.9%), though it fluctuated notably—reaching a trough of around €421 million and a peak of €800 million along the way. The overall production growth, combined with rising export propensity, suggests that the EU's manufacturing base expanded in ways that were oriented toward international markets rather than solely domestic consumption.

Specialisation is concentrated in Southern and Eastern Europe

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage in 2025 shows that EU member states with the strongest specialisation in CN 330749 exports are predominantly in Southern and Eastern Europe:

Bulgaria and Portugal stand out with the highest normalised RCA (RSCA) scores, indicating that their export specialisation in this product category is far above what their overall trade profiles would predict. Poland and the Netherlands, with their large absolute export shares, combine significant volumes with meaningful specialisation. By contrast, Cyprus, Malta, Ireland, Estonia, and Finland showed very low or negative specialisation, indicating negligible competitive presence in this category.

Volatility remains manageable, but certain corridors carry elevated risk

The volatility analysis reveals that most major trade corridors exhibit moderate coefficient-of-variation (CV) values, suggesting that trade flows have been relatively stable. However, several smaller corridors show high volatility:

• Imports from the United Arab Emirates (CV: 1.14) and Egypt (CV: 1.58) are the most volatile import corridors, reflecting their rapid growth from near-zero baselines.
• Exports to Mexico (CV: 0.79), Australia (CV: 0.60), and Russia (CV: 0.64) show the highest volatility on the export side.

Notable price shock events were detected in 2017 for exports to the United States (+82% price shift) and Australia (+32.4%), and in 2023 for exports to Saudi Arabia (+35.5%). These episodes likely reflect shifts in product mix (e.g., a sudden increase in premium product shipments) rather than supply disruptions, given the consumer-goods nature of the product.

Conclusion

The EU trade market for preparations for perfuming or deodorising rooms (CN 330749) has undergone a substantial transformation over 2015–2025. Three defining features stand out:

1. Premiumisation over volume growth: EU export values grew by 78% even as volumes declined by 8%, driven by a near-doubling of unit export prices. The widening price gap between exports (€9,718/t) and imports (€4,398/t) points to an industry that has moved decisively upmarket, exporting higher-value preparations while importing more standardised products.

2. Geographic diversification and reorientation: The EU's export market structure became significantly less concentrated (HHI down 42%), with the United States, Ukraine, Mexico, and Norway emerging as fast-growing destinations. On the import side, China and Türkiye consolidated their positions as dominant suppliers, together accounting for nearly half of extra-EU imports by value.

3. Structural outward orientation: With export propensity rising from 26% to 59% and a persistent trade surplus growing to €104 million, the EU has cemented its role as a globally competitive, net-exporting producer. Production grew by 26% to €793 million, and specialisation is now concentrated in Southern and Eastern European member states—notably Bulgaria, Portugal, Poland, and the Netherlands.

Looking ahead, key watchpoints include the sustainability of the premiumisation trend, the potential for import competition from China and Türkiye to intensify, and the ability of emerging export markets (particularly Ukraine and Mexico) to sustain their rapid growth trajectories.