Market evolution: Antibiotics (CN 2941) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in antibiotics (customs code 2941) over the period 2015–2025. CN 2941 is a bundled heading encompassing six subcategories of antibiotics, from penicillins (294110) and tetracyclines (294130) to erythromycin (294150) and a broad residual category covering other antibiotics (294190). The EU remains a major player in both production and consumption of these pharmaceutical ingredients, yet the data reveal a decade of significant structural change: shrinking volumes, shifting partner geographies, rising unit prices in exports, and a slowly improving — but still substantial — trade deficit.

1. A Decade of Contracting Trade Volumes with Rising Unit Values

Overall imports and exports declined in both value and volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's external trade in antibiotics contracted significantly. Imports fell from €2.46 billion to €1.92 billion (−21.8% in value), while the volume imported dropped from 19,205 tonnes to 15,457 tonnes (−19.5%). Exports experienced an even steeper decline in volume: from 9,729 tonnes to 6,457 tonnes (−33.6%), though their value contracted less sharply (−18.1%, from €1.33 billion to €1.09 billion).

Export prices diverged sharply from import prices

One of the most striking dynamics is the divergence in unit prices. While import prices remained broadly stable (−2.8%), export prices surged by 23.3% over the period. This suggests the EU is shifting toward exporting higher-value, more specialised antibiotic products, even as the volumes shipped abroad shrink. By 2025, the EU's average export price (€167,789/t) exceeded its average import price (€124,206/t) by roughly 35%, pointing to a qualitative upmarket shift in the EU's export basket.

The trade deficit narrowed, but the EU remains structurally dependent on imports

The EU's antibiotics trade deficit improved from −€1.13 billion to −€835 million, a 26.2% improvement. However, net import reliance — which peaked at 43.8% at its highest point during the period — ended at 21.9% in 2025, down from 25.8% in 2015. The EU continues to import substantially more antibiotics than it exports, a structural feature that has persisted throughout the decade.

2. Shifting Partner Geographies: Asia's Growing Role and the Decline of Traditional European Links

China consolidated its position as the dominant supplier

Looking at the top trading partners, China's role in EU antibiotic imports grew steadily. Chinese imports rose from €553 million to €653 million (+18.2%), making China by far the largest single-country supplier. India also gained ground significantly: imports from India nearly doubled, rising from €73 million to €137 million (+87.4%). Together, these two Asian economies account for a growing share of the EU's antibiotic supply.

Switzerland's dominant role eroded, and UK trade collapsed post-Brexit

Conversely, Switzerland — the largest single import partner in 2015 at €1.18 billion — saw its share collapse by 45.9% to €641 million. This was partly offset by a dramatic and anomalous surge in imports from "countries and territories not specified" (+386.9%), which may reflect reclassification or confidentiality changes. The United Kingdom, a historically important trade partner, saw its exports to the EU plunge by 80.1% (from €78 million to €16 million), consistent with the trade frictions introduced by Brexit.

The EU's export geography also shifted toward emerging markets

On the export side, the EU's shipments to China more than doubled (+109.9%, from €71 million to €150 million) and to India surged by 93.7% (from €69 million to €134 million). Meanwhile, exports to Switzerland fell by 59.5% (from €311 million to €126 million) and to the United States by 38.4% (from €231 million to €142 million). Brazil remained a stable and growing market (+33.1%). This reorientation suggests the EU is increasingly serving fast-growing Asian markets while traditional European and North American trade links weaken.

Import and export concentration both declined

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 3,046 to 2,541 (−16.6%), and for exports from 1,099 to 820 (−25.3%). Both movements indicate a diversification of the EU's trade partners, reducing — at least in statistical terms — the concentration risk associated with relying on a small number of suppliers or buyers.

3. Internal EU Specialisation, Production Resilience, and Vulnerability Signals

Italy dominates EU antibiotic exports; Ireland's role has collapsed

Within the EU, Member State specialisation in antibiotics varies sharply. Italy is the most specialised exporter (RSCA of 0.51, RCA of 3.09) and by far the largest, with exports of €382 million in 2025. Denmark (RCA 2.31) and Belgium (RCA 2.23) follow. At the other end of the spectrum, Finland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Latvia show virtually no export specialisation in this product.

The most dramatic internal shift has been the near-total collapse of Ireland's antibiotic exports, which fell from €240 million in 2015 to just €6 million in 2025 (−97.4%). This likely reflects the restructuring of pharmaceutical manufacturing in Ireland, where many multinationals have shifted active ingredient production offshore while retaining finished-dose formulation.

EU production volumes held steady, but value eroded

Despite the contraction in trade volumes, EU production of antibiotics remained broadly stable in volume terms: from approximately 39,000 tonnes in 2015 to 40,000 tonnes in 2025 (+2.6%). However, the value of that production declined by 12.9% (from €2.97 billion to €2.58 billion). This indicates that EU producers are maintaining output but facing downward price pressure — likely from competition with lower-cost Asian manufacturers, particularly in generic antibiotic APIs.

Trade intensity remained high, confirming the EU's openness to this market

The EU's trade intensity for antibiotics stood at 69.5% in 2025 (down from 72.9% in 2015), indicating that a large share of what the EU consumes is traded internationally. The export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — also declined slightly from 49.9% to 46.7%. These figures confirm that antibiotics remain a highly globalised product, but the EU's openness is gradually receding, possibly reflecting reshoring efforts or shifts in global supply chains.

Price shocks were detected in several bilateral flows

The volatility analysis identified several notable price shocks in EU antibiotic exports:

These events — while small in absolute value share — illustrate the episodic volatility that can characterise bilateral antibiotic trade, often linked to supply disruptions, regulatory changes, or one-off procurement contracts.

Product-level composition: the "other antibiotics" category dominates

Breaking down the subcategories, the broad residual category (294190 — "other antibiotics") accounts for the overwhelming share of both imports and exports by value. In 2025, it represented €1.60 billion of imports (83% of the total) and €911 million of exports (84%). Among the named subcategories, penicillins (294110) and tetracyclines (294130) are the next most significant segments. Notably, import volumes of penicillins fell from 3,439 tonnes to 2,887 tonnes over the period, while tetracycline imports declined from 4,838 tonnes to 3,027 tonnes — suggesting structural demand shifts or substitution effects within the antibiotic class.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in antibiotics over 2015–2025 tells a story of contraction, reorientation, and resilience. Trade volumes declined meaningfully — by roughly one-fifth for imports and one-third for exports — while the trade deficit narrowed from €1.1 billion to €835 million. The most significant structural shifts were geographic: the EU's supply base pivoted toward China and India, while traditional partners like Switzerland and the United Kingdom saw their roles diminish sharply. Within the EU, Italy consolidated its position as the dominant exporter, while Ireland's role virtually disappeared. EU production volumes proved resilient even as their value eroded, pointing to intensifying price competition from Asian generic manufacturers. Looking ahead, the combination of high trade intensity (69.5%), a persistent structural deficit, and the concentration of global API production in a small number of Asian countries will continue to pose strategic questions for European pharmaceutical sovereignty — questions that have only grown more urgent since the supply-chain disruptions of the COVID-19 era.