Market evolution: Glycosides (CN 2938) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in glycosides (Combined Nomenclature code 2938) from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the market underwent a dramatic transformation. The EU transitioned from being a major net exporter to a position of near net import balance. This structural shift was characterized by a collapse in export values, a consolidation of import sources, and significant price divergences between the two main product sub-segments. The analysis below interprets these dynamics using available trade data, focusing on volume, value, partnership concentration, and price volatility.
The Great Reversal: From Export Dominance to Import Parity
The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade position for CN 2938. The bloc moved from a substantial trade surplus to a slight deficit, driven by diverging trends in export and import dynamics.
The Collapse of EU Export Value
Between 2015 and 2025, EU export value for glycosides fell by 64.9%, from €656.5 million to €230.2 million. This occurred despite a 276.4% increase in export volume (from 2,047 tonnes to 7,704 tonnes). The data reveals a severe price erosion in the main export segment. The unit price for exports plummeted by 90.7% over the period, indicating that the EU was exporting much larger quantities at drastically lower prices, a classic sign of commoditization or intense international competition.
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Steady Growth in Import Dependency
In contrast, EU import value grew by 42.1%, reaching €244.7 million in 2025. Import volume nearly doubled (+88.2%), growing to 7,089 tonnes. While import unit prices also declined (by 24.5%), the fall was far less severe than for exports. This combination of rising import volumes and relatively stable import prices, coupled with collapsing export values, erased the EU's trade surplus, which fell from €484.3 million in 2015 to a deficit of €14.5 million in 2025.
The Shifting Trade Balance
The net import reliance indicator encapsulates this reversal. In 2015, the EU had a strong negative net import reliance of -162.5% (indicating a large net export position). By 2025, this figure had moved to -7.2%, meaning the EU was nearly self-sufficient. This shift underscores a fundamental change in the bloc's role in the global glycosides market, from a net supplier to a near-balanced participant.
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The Evolving Partnership Landscape: Concentration and Volatility
The decade saw significant reordering among the EU's key trade partners for glycosides, with imports becoming more concentrated and exports becoming more diversified, though often with highly volatile relationships.
China's Ascendancy in Supply
China solidified its position as the EU's dominant glycoside supplier. Its share of EU imports grew consistently, with its import value rising by 64.7% from €89.6 million to €147.6 million. By 2025, China was the largest single source of EU imports by a significant margin. This concentration is reflected in the import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which increased by 27.6% over the period, indicating a less diversified import basket.
Top EU Import Partners by Value in 2025
| Partner | Value (EUR) | Share of Total | Change since 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 147,553,758 | 60.3% | +64.7% |
| India | 32,719,669 | 13.4% | +452.3% |
| Switzerland | 13,566,481 | 5.5% | -38.9% |
| Morocco | 11,974,638 | 4.9% | +44.0% |
| Malaysia | 11,052,606 | 4.5% | -25.6% |
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The Diversification (and Volatility) of EU Exports
EU export patterns became more geographically diverse but highly volatile. The export HHI collapsed by 84.8%, indicating a move away from concentrated partnerships. The United States, once the overwhelmingly dominant export market (€367.4 million in 2015), saw its imports from the EU fall by 96.5%. Meanwhile, new or smaller markets showed explosive but erratic growth:
- Exports to Indonesia grew from €0.96 million to €14.7 million (+1,440%).
- Exports to Viet Nam grew from €0.14 million to €3.5 million (+2,451%).
However, the high coefficient of variation (CV) in export values to partners like Indonesia (2.52), Viet Nam (2.20), and Thailand (2.68) confirms the instability of these new relationships.
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Intra-EU Specialization Trends
Internal EU dynamics also played a role. In 2025, France was the largest intra-EU importer and a major exporter. Specialization varied widely: Slovakia (RCA: 7.71) and Hungary (RCA: 3.84) showed strong comparative advantage in production, while Portugal and Finland had virtually no specialization. This suggests fragmented production capabilities within the bloc.
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A Tale of Two Segments: Price Divergence and Supply Shocks
The umbrella code CN 2938 masks two distinct sub-products with sharply different market trajectories, leading to the overall price and volatility trends.
Diverging Fortunes of Sub-Products
The data shows a clear dichotomy between sub-code 293890 (other glycosides) and 293810 (rutoside/rutin).
- Imports: The bulk of import volume growth came from 293890 (+118%), while 293810 imports remained relatively flat. Import prices for both segments fell, but 293890 prices were significantly lower.
- Exports: The story is reversed for exports. The massive volume increase was again in 293890 (+297%), but its unit price collapsed by 92.5% (from €357,509/t to €26,811/t). In contrast, 293810 export volumes more than doubled, and its price increased by 26.3%.
This explains the overall paradox: the EU's export volume surge was driven by a low-value, commoditized segment (293890), while a niche, higher-value segment (293810) maintained stable pricing.
Price Evolution (EUR per tonne) by Sub-Segment
| Year | 293890 Export Price | 293810 Export Price | 293890 Import Price | 293810 Import Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 357,509 | 53,263 | 41,271 | 59,593 |
| 2020 | 106,951 | 57,472 | 34,005 | 46,888 |
| 2025 | 26,811 | 67,261 | 32,289 | 51,200 |
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Identifying Market Shocks
The analysis detected several supply-side shocks, predominantly in export prices. The most notable were:
- 2018 – Thailand Export Price Shock: A 394% price shift with a high abnormality score (42.3), though it affected a very small share (0.2%) of EU export value.
- 2022 – India Export Price Shock: A 142% price increase impacting a 4.1% share of EU exports.
- 2021 – China Export Price Shock: A 267% price jump for exports to China.
These isolated shocks, often in volatile Asian markets, did not prevent the overarching secular decline in average EU export prices, which was driven by the structural price collapse in the dominant 293890 segment.
Conclusion
Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU glycosides market underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc's role shifted decisively from a high-value net exporter to a volume-driven importer, nearly achieving a net trade balance. This was not a simple story of declining competitiveness but a complex evolution: the EU massively increased its output of a commoditized glycoside segment (293890) at collapsing prices, while import dependency, particularly from China, grew steadily for the broader product basket. Export relationships became more numerous but far more volatile, and a niche segment (293810) demonstrated resilient pricing. The net result is a market characterized by high trade intensity, significant import concentration, and segmented value chains, posing strategic questions for the EU's chemical sector regarding value retention and supply security.