Market evolution: Rare sugars and derivatives (CN 2940) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of the European Union in rare sugars and derivatives (CN 2940) over the period 2015-2025. The data reveals a market characterized by significant value growth driven primarily by price increases rather than volume expansion. The EU has maintained a strong and growing net exporter position, though its reliance on imports has lessened. Key dynamics include shifting partnerships, pronounced price volatility, and a notable resilience in EU production.

A strengthening EU net exporter position driven by price, not volume

The EU's trade in CN 2940 shows a clear divergence between value and volume trends. While export values grew substantially, the quantity exported slightly decreased, indicating that the value increase was almost entirely driven by rising unit prices.

• Export Value vs. Quantity: The value of EU exports increased by 80.6% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €196.7 million to €355.2 million. In contrast, the quantity exported fell by 8.0%, from 83,193 tonnes to 76,535 tonnes over the same period (General Overview).
• The Price Surge: This discrepancy is explained by a 96.3% increase in the average export price, which climbed from €2,363 per tonne in 2015 to €4,639 per tonne in 2025. Prices peaked at over €5,500 per tonne in 2022.
• Import Growth and a Robust Balance: Import values grew even faster (151.4%), but from a lower base. Imports also saw strong quantity growth (149.3%). Despite this, the EU consistently maintained a positive trade balance, which grew by 36.1% over the decade, confirming the sector's persistent net exporter status.

Geographical and concentration shifts in trade partnerships

The EU's trading relationships for CN 2940 have evolved, with some partnerships strengthening dramatically and import supply becoming more concentrated.

• Key Export Destinations: The United States and Switzerland remain the largest export markets, with values growing by 111.9% and 96.5% respectively. The most dramatic growth, however, was seen in exports to China, which surged by 285.5% (General Overview).
• Evolving Import Sources: China solidified its position as the top import source, with its share value increasing by 394.8%. Imports from the United States also grew significantly (86.5%). A notable shift was the surge in imports from Israel, growing from a negligible base to become a top-7 partner.
• Increased Import Concentration: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value increased by 22.3% over the period, indicating a higher concentration in the origins of EU imports. The concentration of export destinations also increased but remained at a lower level, suggesting a more diversified export market (Market Structure).

Price volatility and the impact of external shocks

The market for CN 2940 exhibits considerable price volatility, particularly in trade with certain partners, leading to significant one-off shock events.

• Partner-Specific Volatility: The volatility of import prices (measured by coefficient of variation) is highest with partners like South Africa, Indonesia, and Israel. For exports, price volatility is most pronounced with Russia and China, though the US and Japan show relatively stable pricing (Volatility & Shocks).
• Notable Shock Events: The data identifies clear abnormal price shocks. The most significant was a 125.7% price increase in exports to the United States in 2020, which accounts for 37.8% of the total export value shock. Another major shock occurred in exports to India in 2021, with a 408.3% price spike. These events highlight the market's sensitivity to disruptions, potentially linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent supply chain and demand shifts (Volatility & Shocks).

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU has strengthened its position in the global market for rare sugars and derivatives. This growth was powered by substantial price appreciation rather than volume gains, ensuring a healthy and expanding trade surplus. While import dependency has increased in value terms, it has decreased in relative net reliance terms. The market structure points to a well-specialized industrial base, with several EU members holding strong comparative advantages. However, the period was marked by significant price volatility, culminating in sharp shocks likely tied to global disruptions. Overall, the EU's trade in CN 2940 appears resilient and commercially dynamic, though subject to external price pressures.