Market evolution: Hormones (CN 2937) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 2937 covers hormones, prostaglandins, thromboxanes and leukotrienes — natural or reproduced by synthesis — including chain-modified polypeptides used primarily as hormones. This broad product group encompasses corticosteroids, sex hormones, insulin, growth hormones, and the fast-growing class of GLP-1 receptor agonists that have transformed the global pharmaceutical landscape. Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in this category underwent a structural transformation: extra-EU import values quadrupled, export volumes in tonnes nearly vanished, the trade deficit widened eightfold, and a massive expansion in EU domestic production reshaped the bloc's external reliance. This report identifies and explains three interconnected dynamics that defined this evolution.

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1. A Widening Extra-EU Deficit Masking a Domestic Production Surge

The extra-EU trade deficit expanded by an order of magnitude

Over the period, the EU's extra-EU trade balance in CN 2937 deteriorated from −€2.73 billion in 2015 to −€21.08 billion in 2025. This was driven by a sharp asymmetry: extra-EU import values rose from €5.83 billion to €23.94 billion (+310%), while extra-EU export values edged down from €3.10 billion to €2.86 billion (−7.8%). In surface terms, the EU appears to have become far more dependent on external suppliers of hormone products.

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Export volumes collapsed while unit values surged — pointing to a product mix revolution

The most revealing feature of the period is a dramatic quantity–value divergence in exports. Export volumes fell from 1,758 tonnes to just 194 tonnes (−88.9%), yet the average unit value per tonne rose from €1.76 million to €14.66 million (+734.7%). This pattern signals a decisive compositional shift: the EU moved away from exporting bulk hormone intermediates toward very small physical quantities of extremely high-value biologic and peptide-based active ingredients. On the import side, volumes grew from 616 t to 1,032 t (+67.6%) while unit values climbed from €9.44 million/t to €22.97 million/t (+143.3%), reflecting both higher demand and an upgrading of the imported product mix.

A twentyfold increase in domestic production fundamentally altered the EU's reliance position

Behind the worsening extra-EU trade deficit lies a remarkable expansion in EU domestic production. PRODCOM data shows EU production value surging from approximately €1.09 billion in 2015 to €24.00 billion in 2025 — a more than twentyfold increase (+2,102%). This expansion, concentrated in high-value biologic hormones, significantly altered the EU's structural position. The net import reliance indicator reversed from +64.3% to −34.9%, meaning that relative to total domestic output and total EU exports (including intra-EU flows), the EU shifted from being a significant net importer to a net exporter. The continued large extra-EU import bill reflects the fact that a substantial share of imports feeds into intra-EU processing, formulation, and distribution chains before final consumption or re-export.

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2. The Biologics Boom: Polypeptide Hormones Overwhelmingly Drive the Transformation

CN 293719 (polypeptide hormones) emerged as the dominant segment on both sides of the ledger

When the product composition is examined at the sub-heading level, one category stands out above all others. CN 293719 — covering polypeptide hormones, protein hormones and glycoprotein hormones (excluding somatropin and insulin) — accounted for the overwhelming majority of the growth in both import and export values. This segment likely includes GLP-1 receptor agonists (such as semaglutide and tirzepatide) which have experienced explosive global demand growth as treatments for type 2 diabetes and obesity.

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Note: Segment data may include intra-EU flows; extra-EU totals are reported separately in Section 1.

The unit-value trajectory of polypeptide hormone exports signals an extraordinary shift toward high-value biologics

For the 293719 segment specifically, export quantities fell from 702 t to just 55 t (−92%), while export values surged from €0.78 billion to €34.54 billion. This implies a unit value increase from approximately €1.1 million per tonne to roughly €628 million per tonne — an almost six-hundredfold rise. Such values are consistent with a product mix dominated by ultra-high-value biologic drugs where minute physical quantities correspond to very large monetary values. On the import side, 293719 volumes grew from 11.5 t to 44.2 t (+283%) while values rose from €3.59bn to €22.46bn (+525%), pointing to a similar — if less extreme — escalation in the value density of imported biologics.

Traditional hormone segments lost ground as the product mix shifted

While 293719 surged, most other segments stagnated or declined in trade value. Insulin exports (CN 293712) fell from €642 million to €147 million (−77%), suggesting either a loss of extra-EU competitiveness or a shift in production toward newer therapeutic classes. Corticosteroid intermediates (CN 293722) saw export values decline from €399 million to €200 million, while import-export dynamics for sex hormones (CN 293723) remained broadly stable. Prostaglandin imports (CN 293750) fell from €232 million to €72 million. The overall picture is one of radical concentration: by 2025, polypeptide hormones accounted for the vast majority of EU hormone trade value, up from a significant but not dominant share a decade earlier.

3. Geographic Reorientation and Deepening Supply Concentration

China and the United States consolidated their positions as the EU's dominant import sources

The geographic origins of EU hormone imports shifted markedly. The United States remained the largest extra-EU supplier, with imports rising from €2.56 billion to €11.35 billion (+344%). Far more dramatic, however, was the rise of China: EU imports from China surged from just €227 million to €4.78 billion (+2,004%), making it the second-largest supplier by 2025. This likely reflects China's expanding role as a producer of peptide active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and biosimilars. India also grew, though more modestly, from €37 million to €84 million (+128%). By contrast, Switzerland's share halved from €2.37 billion to €1.10 billion (−54%), and UK imports fell from €125 million to €27 million (−79%), reflecting both post-Brexit trade frictions and a broader geographic reorientation of supply chains toward Asia and North America.

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The EU's extra-EU export geography also shifted, with destination opacity increasing

On the export side, the most notable change is the growth of shipments to unspecified destinations — rising from €612 million to €3.23 billion (+428%). This category ("countries not specified for commercial or military reasons") likely reflects confidential pharmaceutical shipments or defence-related trade. Meanwhile, exports to traditional partners declined sharply: the United States fell from €671 million to €169 million (−75%), Switzerland from €692 million to €163 million (−77%), and the United Kingdom from €184 million to €85 million (−54%). EU member-state exporters also reconfigured: Denmark's extra-EU exports grew from €632 million to €3.23 billion (+412%), reflecting Novo Nordisk's global expansion, while Ireland's exports fell from €109 million to €15 million (−86%) despite the country maintaining the EU's highest export specialisation (RSCA of 0.94, RCA of 30.1 in 2025).

Import concentration deepened while price volatility flagged emerging supply risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for extra-EU imports by value rose from 3,678 to 4,673 (+27%), indicating that import sources became more concentrated. The combination of the United States and China alone accounted for the majority of the increase, raising questions about supply-chain resilience should either source face disruption. Export concentration moved in the opposite direction, with the HHI declining from 1,817 to 949 (−48%), reflecting a more diversified — and partly opaque — set of export destinations.

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Volatility analysis also revealed elevated instability in certain trade corridors. Import flows from Hong Kong (CV 2.05), the United Kingdom (CV 0.92), and Canada (CV 0.80) displayed high variability, while export flows to Thailand (CV 2.38) and China (CV 1.51) were similarly erratic. Three price shock events were detected: a major price spike in EU exports to China in 2017 (+370%, abnormality index of 7,486), a similar shock to UK-bound exports in 2017 (+524%), and a Canadian export price shock in 2022 (+158%). These episodes are consistent with the high-value, low-volume character of biologic hormone trade, where single large pharmaceutical shipments can produce outsized statistical anomalies.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 2937 between 2015 and 2025 was reshaped by the rise of biologic polypeptide hormones — above all GLP-1 receptor agonists — which transformed both the product composition and the value density of trade flows. While extra-EU export volumes collapsed by 89% in tonnage terms, this masks a fundamental shift toward ultra-high-value products whose unit prices rose nearly tenfold. A twentyfold expansion in domestic production, driven by EU-based pharmaceutical manufacturers (notably in Denmark), reversed the EU's net import reliance position even as extra-EU import bills quadrupled. Geographic supply chains reoriented sharply toward the United States and China, increasing import concentration and creating new dependencies. Going forward, the key structural risks lie in the heavy reliance on a single product category (293719), deepening concentration of import sources, and the high price volatility inherent in trade in next-generation biologic therapeutics.