Market evolution: Other antibiotics (CN 294190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 294190 — a residual category of antibiotics excluding penicillins, streptomycins, tetracyclines, chloramphenicol, and erythromycin — over the period 2015–2025. Because this code captures the heterogeneity of many remaining antibiotic classes (e.g. carbapenems, glycopeptides, aminoglycosides, lincosamides, macrolides other than erythromycin), it is among the broadest product groups within the antibiotics chapter (CN 2941). The EU has long been both a major producer and a net importer of these substances. Over the decade under review, the market underwent significant structural change: total trade values contracted, the geographic orientation of both imports and exports shifted markedly, and the EU's persistent trade deficit gradually narrowed — even as unit prices and production volumes signalled a changing cost and competitive landscape.

1. A decadal contraction in trade values offset by a narrowing deficit

1.1 Both imports and exports declined substantially between 2015 and 2025

Between the first and last years of the data window, EU imports of CN 294190 fell from approximately €2.01 billion to €1.60 billion (−20.5 %), while exports decreased from €1.12 billion to €911 million (−18.4 %). In volume terms the decline was steeper on the export side: shipments fell from 6,701 tonnes to 4,904 tonnes (−26.8 %), whereas imports dropped from 9,493 tonnes to 8,225 tonnes (−13.3 %).

The asymmetry in price movements is noteworthy: EU export unit values rose by 11.3 % while import prices fell by 8.3 %, suggesting a compositional shift toward higher-value antibiotic specialities on the export side and greater availability of lower-cost (often generic) substances on the import side.

1.2 The EU's structural trade deficit in this product narrowed

The EU has been a consistent net importer of CN 294190 throughout the period. The trade balance moved from −€890 million in 2015 to −€684 million in 2025, improving by 23.1 %. The smallest deficit recorded was −€581 million, while the worst year saw a gap of −€1.63 billion. Net import reliance — the portion of apparent consumption met by imports — fell from 25.8 % at the start of the period to 21.9 % at the end, having dipped as low as 6.1 % in one year and peaking at 43.8 % in another. This volatility underscores how sensitive the balance is to year-to-year shifts in both production and trade.

1.3 EU production held steady in volume but lost ground in value

According to PRODCOM production data, EU output of antibiotics in this category remained broadly flat in volume (from approximately 38,982 kg to 40,000 kg, +2.6 %), yet production value declined from €2.97 billion to €2.58 billion (−12.9 %). This gap between stable quantities and declining values points to either a shift in the product mix toward lower-priced molecules or downward pricing pressure from Asian generics competition.

2. A dramatic geographic reorientation of EU trade flows

2.1 Switzerland's role as the EU's dominant partner eroded sharply

The single most striking dynamic in the data is the collapse of bilateral trade with Switzerland. On the import side, Swiss-sourced antibiotics fell from €1.18 billion to €640 million (−45.9 %), though Switzerland remained the largest import partner by value in 2025. On the export side, shipments to Switzerland plunged even more dramatically — from €308 million to €119 million (−61.3 %). This likely reflects the restructuring of global pharmaceutical supply chains, where Switzerland-based multinationals increasingly source intermediates and active ingredients from Asia rather than routing them through EU subsidiaries. The volatility of Swiss trade flows was relatively low (import CV of 0.14, export CV of 0.20), suggesting the decline was gradual and structural rather than episodic.

2.2 China and India rose as both import suppliers and export destinations

In sharp contrast to the Swiss decline, trade with China and India expanded substantially:

China's import share grew in a context of relatively stable trade volatility (CV = 0.16), indicating consistent supply. India's import growth was even more striking — more than doubling — and reflects India's expanding role as a global generic-API manufacturing hub. The EU-UK trade collapse was also dramatic: imports from the UK fell from €65 million to just €7.4 million (−88.6 %), with a very high coefficient of variation (0.94), consistent with the disruption caused by Brexit and the UK's departure from the EU customs territory.

2.3 Within the EU, Italy consolidated its role as the production and trade hub

Among EU member-state reporters, Italy was the largest exporter (€320 million in 2025) and the most specialised economy in this product (RSCA of 0.559). Italy's antibiotic sector accounted for 28.3 % of total EU production in this category. Denmark (RSCA 0.530) and Belgium (RSCA 0.440) were also notably specialised.

The most dramatic intra-EU shifts were:

• Ireland: exports collapsed from €239 million to €6.3 million (−97.4 %), likely reflecting the relocation of pharmaceutical manufacturing or the reclassification of production under different customs codes.
• Germany: imports fell from €728 million to €209 million (−71.2 %), consistent with the broader decline in Swiss-origin supply that historically transited through Germany.
• Netherlands: imports surged from €81 million to €177 million (+119.5 %), potentially reflecting the Netherlands' role as a logistics and redistribution hub.
• Denmark and France both grew as exporters (+36.4 % and +29.4 % respectively), suggesting some geographic diversification of EU export capacity.

3. Diversification of supply and strategic vulnerability assessment

3.1 Partner concentration declined, signalling healthier trade diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 3,864 to 2,566 (−33.6 %), while the export HHI fell from 1,307 to 847 (−35.2 %). Both movements are favourable from a supply-security perspective: the EU reduced its dependence on any single import partner and broadened its export base. However, the import HHI by volume rose from 3,338 to 4,611 (+38.1 %), suggesting that while the value of imports became more diversified, the physical volumes grew more concentrated — potentially indicating that a smaller number of large-volume, lower-price suppliers (likely China and India) gained ground.

3.2 Trade intensity remained high, confirming the product's deep integration in global value chains

Trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports relative to production plus net imports — stood at 69.5 % in 2025, down from 72.9 % in 2015 but still indicating that antibiotics remain a deeply traded product category. Export propensity (exports as a share of production) similarly edged down from 49.9 % to 46.7 %. Both metrics confirm that the EU's antibiotics sector remains structurally outward-facing, even as volumes adjusted.

3.3 Isolated price shocks in smaller markets contrast with stable main flows

The volatility analysis reveals that the EU's main import partners (China, Switzerland) exhibited low price volatility, while secondary partners showed wider swings. Among shock events, three stood out:

These were concentrated in smaller markets (value shares of 0.1 % to 5.7 %) and are unlikely to reflect systemic supply disruptions. They may instead correspond to one-off pharmaceutical shipments, tenders, or classification changes rather than genuine market dislocations.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade in CN 294190 antibiotics underwent a broad-based contraction in both value and volume, but the underlying dynamics tell a more nuanced story. The persistent trade deficit narrowed by 23 %, import partner concentration declined, and EU production held steady in quantity even as prices softened. The most consequential structural shifts were geographic: Switzerland and the UK receded as partners while China and India advanced, mirroring the global rebalancing of pharmaceutical active-ingredient production toward Asia. Within the EU, Italy cemented its position as the leading producer and exporter, while Ireland's near-total exit from export flows and Germany's declining import role reshaped the internal landscape. Despite declining trade volumes, the product remains deeply integrated in global value chains, with trade intensity still near 70 %. The EU's strategic position appears moderately improved — less concentrated in supply sources and less reliant on net imports — but the continued dependence on Asian-API producers warrants close monitoring from a health-security perspective.