Market evolution: Welded steel tubes (CN 730661) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the EU market for welded steel tubes and pipes of square or rectangular cross-section (CN 730661) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis focuses on intra-EU trade with non-EU partners, utilizing data on value, quantity, price, partner concentration, and production to identify key structural shifts. The period is characterized by significant volatility, a substantial realignment of trade flows, and notable changes in the EU's competitive position and supply dependencies.

1. A structural shift towards greater import reliance and export price resilience

The decade reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade posture for this product category. While the value of exports grew, this was achieved on a much smaller volume, indicating a focus on higher-value shipments. In contrast, imports surged in both value and volume, widening the trade deficit and increasing the EU's dependence on external supply.

The EU's trade deficit for welded steel tubes widened dramatically

The EU's trade balance deteriorated from -121 million EUR in 2015 to -448 million EUR in 2025, a decline of 270%. This was driven by a 97.5% increase in import value (from 375 million EUR to 740 million EUR) against a more modest 15.1% rise in export value (from 254 million EUR to 292 million EUR).

Import volumes grew strongly while export volumes contracted

The volume dynamics underline the structural shift. Import quantity rose by 55.8% to 978,000 tonnes, while export quantity fell by 21.4% to 178,000 tonnes. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance remains significant, fluctuating between 3.3% and 13.7% over the period.

The price gap between EU exports and imports widened significantly

EU exporters commanded a substantial price premium. In 2025, the average export price was 1,541 EUR/t, compared to an import price of 757 EUR/t, making exports more than twice as expensive. This premium grew over the period as the export price increased by 54.3% versus a 26.7% increase for import prices, suggesting a shift in the EU's output towards higher-specification or more processed products.

2. A volatile geopolitical landscape re-drawing trade and production patterns

The market experienced severe shocks and a reconfiguration of its supply chain, influenced by geopolitical events. Import concentration increased, and production within the EU showed resilience in value despite a fall in volume.

Top import partners shifted, with sanctions and new suppliers reshaping flows

The list of major importers to the EU changed profoundly. While Türkiye remained the largest partner, its share grew by 197%. Traditional suppliers faced disruption: imports from the Russian Federation collapsed by 93.8% due to sanctions. Other partners like North Macedonia (+229%), Ukraine (+176%), and China (+277%) saw explosive growth, indicating a rapid re-sourcing of imports.

Import supply became more geographically concentrated

Despite partner diversification, the concentration of imports by value (HHI) increased from 1,774 to 1,953. This indicates that the new import flows, particularly from Türkiye, North Macedonia, and China, became more dominant, somewhat offsetting the loss of Russian supply.

Domestic production volumes fell, but their value increased

EU production volume of the broader product group (heading 7306) decreased by 8.3% from 2015 to 2025, while production value increased by 6.4%. This aligns with the rise in export prices and suggests EU manufacturers may have focused on more specialized or higher-margin segments of the welded tubes market.

3. Increased market volatility and a strategic reorientation towards export intensity

The market exhibited high volatility, with major price shocks recorded in 2021. Concurrently, the EU's economic engagement with this product evolved, showing a stronger orientation towards exports relative to its own production.

Trade with several partners proved highly volatile

Analysis of trade volatility reveals significant year-to-year fluctuations. For imports, flows from the Russian Federation (CV: 0.49) and China (CV: 0.38) were notably unstable. On the export side, shipments to the United States (CV: 0.43) and Ukraine (CV: 0.65) showed high variability.

The year 2021 was marked by extreme price shocks

Several abnormal price shifts were detected in 2021. The most severe was a 52.9% price shock for exports to the United Kingdom, coinciding with global supply chain disruptions and energy price spikes. Similar, though less extreme, price shocks affected imports from North Macedonia.

The EU became more engaged in trade, with a stronger export focus

The EU's trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of apparent consumption) rose from 26.1% to 28.0%. More strikingly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased sharply from 8.3% to 10.6%, indicating a strategic push to sell a greater share of output abroad.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for welded square/rectangular steel tubes underwent a significant transformation. The bloc evolved from a position of moderate import reliance to one of much greater dependency, as import volumes surged and the trade deficit widened substantially. This shift was accompanied by a major reorientation of supply chains away from Russia and towards Türkiye, the Western Balkans, and China, which increased import concentration. Despite lower production volumes, the EU managed to raise the value of its output and exports, pointing to a move up the value chain. The market was also characterized by high volatility and severe price shocks in 2021. Ultimately, the data paints a picture of a sector that has become more globally integrated but also more vulnerable to external supply dynamics, with EU producers increasingly leveraging export intensity as a key strategy.