Market evolution: Welded steel tubes (CN 7306) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in welded steel tubes, pipes and hollow profiles (Combined Nomenclature code 7306) over the 2015–2025 period. This broad product family covers welded, riveted and similarly closed tubes of iron or steel — excluding cast iron, seamless tubes and large-diameter circular tubes over 406.4 mm — and is a critical input for construction, energy infrastructure, machinery and manufacturing.

The decade under review was marked by significant turbulence: the 2015–2016 commodity price downturn, the post-pandemic steel price surge of 2021–2022, and the geopolitical realignment triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. As the data reveal, the EU's position in this market underwent a fundamental transformation — from a comfortable net exporter to a trade bloc approaching structural balance, with profound shifts in partner geography, product mix and pricing dynamics. The Scope & Definitions dashboard provides full product definitions and context.

1. From Surplus to Parity: The Erosion of the EU's Trade Position

The EU's export volumes declined sharply while import volumes expanded

The most striking headline trend is a dramatic divergence between the EU's export and import trajectories. EU extra-EU export volumes fell from 972,525 tonnes in 2015 to 682,471 tonnes in 2025 — a contraction of 29.8%. Over the same period, import volumes grew from 1,337,438 tonnes to 1,799,014 tonnes, a 34.5% increase. The EU thus went from importing 1.37 tonnes for every tonne exported to importing 2.64 tonnes for every tonne exported — a near-doubling of the import-to-export volume ratio.

Source: General Overview — trade

Soaring export prices masked the volume collapse

Despite the 29.8% decline in export tonnage, the total value of EU exports actually rose by 15.3%, from €1.67 billion to €1.92 billion. This is entirely explained by a 64.3% surge in average export prices, from €1,711/t to €2,812/t. Import prices rose more modestly, from €901/t to €1,005/t (+11.6%), reflecting the fact that the EU's import basket is skewed toward lower-value bulk tubes while its exports are weighted toward higher-specification products such as stainless steel tubes. The divergence in unit values — EU exports averaging €2,812/t against imports at €1,005/t — suggests the EU retains a comparative advantage in premium, value-added segments even as it loses ground in volume.

The trade surplus narrowed to near-zero

The EU's trade surplus in CN 7306 contracted from €461 million in 2015 to €111 million in 2025, a decline of 75.9%. At its trough (around 2021–2022), the balance briefly turned negative, reaching a deficit of approximately €401 million. The net import reliance indicator confirms this trajectory: it moved from −16.4% (net exporter) in 2015 to −1.9% in 2025, effectively approaching parity. This shift reflects both the structural increase in import dependence and the erosion of the EU's export competitiveness in volume terms.

2. A Geopolitical Reconfiguration of Trading Partners

Türkiye became the dominant import supplier, replacing Switzerland and Russia

The reconfiguration of the EU's import sources is one of the most consequential dynamics of the decade. Türkiye's share surged from €276 million (2015) to €614 million (2025), a 122.4% increase, making it by far the EU's largest extra-EU supplier of welded tubes. This reflects Türkiye's massive steelmaking capacity expansion and its geographic proximity to key EU markets. North Macedonia (+196.2%, from €37M to €110M) and India (+116.3%, from €57M to €124M) also emerged as major suppliers, signalling a broader diversification toward cost-competitive producers.

Source: General Overview — top partners

Russia's collapse as a supplier was near-total

The Russian Federation's exports to the EU in CN 7306 fell from €47 million in 2015 to just €2.3 million in 2025, a 95.0% decline. This collapse — which accelerated after 2022 following the EU's sanctions regime — removed a historically significant source of supply and contributed to import price volatility. Switzerland, another traditional supplier, also saw a 62.0% decline (from €285M to €108M), likely reflecting both currency effects and changing trade patterns.

Norway emerged as the EU's fastest-growing export market

On the export side, Norway stands out with a 274.5% surge in EU deliveries, from €102 million to €380 million, making it the third-largest export destination by 2025. This likely reflects major energy infrastructure projects (offshore oil and gas) and the country's reliance on EU-supplied specialty tubes. The United States remained a large but declining market (−27.5%, from €302M to €219M), while Mexico (+117.4%) and Switzerland (+21.7%) grew. China fell by 42.3% (€62M → €36M), consistent with the broader trend of China building out its own tube-making capacity.

Source: General Overview — top partners

Price shocks hit hardest in 2021, affecting newer supplier relationships

The volatility analysis reveals that the most severe price shocks occurred in 2021, coinciding with the post-COVID steel price surge. Imports from North Macedonia experienced a price abnormality of 51.9 (extreme) with a 70.7% year-on-year price shift; Ukraine imports saw a 62.7% price jump. The high coefficient of variation in imports from Russia (0.49), Switzerland (0.47) and Belarus (0.45) underscores the instability of these traditional source markets, while Türkiye — despite its rapid growth — showed more moderate volatility (CV of 0.20).

3. Shifting Product Mix: Structural Steel Tubes Dominate While Energy Segments Decline

Square and rectangular tubes became the largest import category by volume

The product composition of EU trade shifted materially over the decade. By 2025, square and rectangular tubes (CN 730661) had become the single largest import category at 977,584 tonnes (up from 627,404t in 2015, +55.8%), accounting for over half of all import tonnage. Circular-section tubes of non-alloy steel (CN 730630) remained the second category at 629,242t. Together, these two construction-oriented segments represent nearly 90% of imports by weight.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Energy-related tube segments contracted on both the import and export sides

Line pipe for oil and gas pipelines (CN 730619) saw import volumes decline by 44.0% (from 74,828t to 41,870t) and export volumes collapse by 58.9% (from 166,658t to 68,469t). This reflects the winding-down of major European pipeline projects, the accelerated energy transition, and the geopolitical disruption of Russia–EU energy trade. However, in a notable countercurrent, the value of line pipe exports actually increased by 51.8% (from €181M to €276M) despite the volume decline, driven by a near-quadrupling of unit export prices (from €1,089/t to €4,024/t), suggesting that the remaining production is shifting toward higher-specification, higher-margin applications.

EU production surged, but export propensity declined

According to production data, EU domestic production of CN 7306 products grew from approximately 1.17 million tonnes to 8.71 million tonnes (+643.9% in quantity, +798.5% in value from €1.34B to €12.05B). Despite this massive capacity expansion, export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — declined from 20.8% to 17.4%. This suggests that a growing share of EU output is being absorbed by the internal market, or that export competitiveness has diminished relative to domestic demand growth. Trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of production) rose modestly from 25.8% to 28.5%.

Italy and a handful of Member States drive the EU's export specialisation

The specialisation analysis shows that Italy is the EU's most specialised exporter of welded tubes, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.67 and an RCA of nearly 5.0. Italy accounts for 40.0% of EU production in this segment and contributed 36.6% of total extra-EU export value (€691M out of €1.92B in 2025). Bulgaria (RSCA 0.66), Finland (0.44), Portugal (0.39) and Greece (0.36) complete the list of specialised producers. By contrast, Ireland, Sweden and Hungary show negative specialisation, indicating they are net importers of these products.

Conclusion

The EU market for welded steel tubes (CN 7306) has undergone a fundamental transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. Three dynamics stand out:

1. The erosion of the EU's net exporter status. The trade surplus shrank from €461 million to €111 million, and net import reliance moved from −16.4% to −1.9%, as export volumes fell 29.8% while import volumes grew 34.5%. While high-value export specialisation persists (EU export prices average nearly three times import prices), the volume trajectory points toward increasing external dependence.

2. A geopolitical realignment of supplier relationships. The collapse of Russian supply (−95.0%) and the decline of Swiss imports (−62.0%) were more than offset by the rise of Türkiye (+122.4%), India (+116.3%) and North Macedonia (+196.2%). This reconfiguration has introduced new supply chain risks, as the concentration of imports (HHI rising from 1,436 to 1,590) increased modestly, and several of the new suppliers exhibited high price volatility during the 2021–2022 commodity shock.

3. A shift in the product mix toward construction tubes and away from energy infrastructure products. Square and rectangular tubes now dominate import volumes, while line pipe for oil and gas has declined sharply on both the import and export sides. EU domestic production expanded dramatically, yet the declining export propensity suggests that capacity growth is increasingly serving the internal market rather than external competitiveness.

Looking ahead, the EU's position in welded steel tubes will depend on its ability to maintain high-value export niches — particularly in stainless and specialty tubes — while managing growing import dependence in bulk structural segments, in a context shaped by carbon border adjustments (CBAM), energy transition dynamics, and ongoing trade tensions with key partners.