Market evolution: Welded steel tubes (CN 730630) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in welded steel tubes of circular cross-section (Customs code 730630) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses a broad range of welded tubes and pipes used in construction, mechanical engineering, gas distribution, and industrial applications. Over the decade, the EU market for this product has undergone notable structural changes: export prices have surged while import prices have remained comparatively flat, import sources have shifted dramatically away from traditional European suppliers toward Türkiye and India, and the EU has moved from a position of modest net import dependence toward approximate trade balance. These dynamics reflect a combination of EU industrial policy (including safeguard measures), global commodity cycles, geopolitical disruptions, and the region's gradual repositioning toward higher-value product segments.

Overview of CN 730630 trade dynamics

1. The Widening Value Gap: EU Exports Premium Products at Rising Prices

One of the most striking dynamics in the EU's trade in CN 730630 is the sharp divergence between export and import unit values. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU export prices rose by 62.1% (from €1,267/t to €2,054/t), while import prices increased by only 5.9% (from €857/t to €908/t). This growing price gap reflects the EU's increasing specialisation in higher-specification, higher-margin welded tube products.

Export prices surged during and after the 2021–2022 steel boom

The 2021–2022 period saw a dramatic spike in steel-related prices globally, driven by post-pandemic demand recovery, surging energy costs in Europe, and supply chain disruptions linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. EU export unit values peaked in 2022 at €2,238/t, more than double the 2015 level. While prices corrected somewhat in subsequent years, the 2025 level of €2,054/t remains well above pre-boom levels, suggesting a structural repricing rather than a purely cyclical phenomenon.

Import prices peaked briefly but returned near historical norms

In contrast, import unit values reached their maximum in 2022 at €1,381/t before falling back to €908/t in 2025—only 5.9% above the 2015 starting value. This relative stability in import prices, despite the commodity super-cycle, points to the availability of low-cost supply from Türkiye, India, and other emerging producers who absorbed cost pressures or benefited from lower energy and labour costs.

The product mix reveals a premium positioning in larger-diameter and precision tubes

Segment-level data confirms the EU's upmarket trajectory. Export prices for tubes of >168.3 mm diameter (sub-code 73063080) reached €3,330/t in 2025, nearly triple the €1,188/t recorded in 2015. Precision cold-drawn tubes (73063012) exported at €2,070/t in 2025, compared to import prices of €1,528/t for the same category. The EU thus commands a significant price premium, particularly in segments where technical specifications, quality certifications, and delivery reliability matter most.

General trade overview

2. Shifting Supply Chains: The Geographic Reorientation of EU Imports

The geographic composition of the EU's import supply base for CN 730630 has changed dramatically over the decade. Traditional European suppliers have lost ground, while Türkiye and India have consolidated their positions as dominant import sources, and several smaller suppliers have emerged with rapid growth rates.

Türkiye became the EU's largest import partner by a wide margin

In 2015, Switzerland was the EU's top import source at €136 million, closely followed by Türkiye at €146 million. By 2025, Switzerland's share had collapsed to €11 million (−91.9%), while Türkiye's imports had nearly doubled to €277 million (+89.7%). Türkiye now accounts for roughly half of the EU's total import value for this product category. India similarly surged from €39 million to €97 million (+148.2%), becoming the second-largest supplier.

Import concentration increased, signalling growing reliance on fewer partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 2,354 in 2015 to 2,802 in 2025 (+19.1%), crossing the threshold typically associated with moderate concentration. This is driven largely by Türkiye's growing dominance. By volume, the HHI rose even more sharply, from 2,464 to 3,115 (+26.4%). In contrast, the export HHI remained essentially flat at around 1,050, indicating that the EU continues to sell to a highly diversified set of destination markets.

Import concentration analysis

Within the EU, import demand shifted from Germany toward Romania and Poland

Among EU member states, Germany's imports declined from €151 million in 2015 to €81 million in 2025 (−46.8%), reflecting either declining domestic demand, substitution by domestic production, or both. Meanwhile, Romania's imports grew from €25 million to €73 million (+191.7%), and Poland's from €19 million to €50 million (+158.2%), consistent with strong construction and infrastructure investment activity in Central and Eastern Europe during this period. Italy remained a significant importer, growing from €56 million to €78 million (+38.3%).

EU member state importers

Export destinations remained diversified, with the UK and Switzerland as anchors

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the EU's largest export destination throughout the period (€88 million in 2015, €99 million in 2025). Switzerland, Norway, and the United States also featured consistently among the top partners. Mexico emerged as a fast-growing destination, with exports nearly doubling from €19 million to €37 million (+97.6%). The stability and diversification of export partners, combined with the low HHI, suggest the EU's export competitiveness is broad-based rather than dependent on any single market.

Top export partners

3. From Import Dependence to Export Ambition: Structural Shifts in Production and Trade Orientation

Beyond price and geographic shifts, the decade saw a fundamental change in the EU's structural trade position for CN 730630. Domestic production grew, export propensity increased sharply, and the EU moved from modest net import dependence to approximate trade balance—a trajectory that signals improving industrial competitiveness.

EU production increased steadily, supporting a growing export base

According to available production data, EU production of welded steel tubes (broadly corresponding to CN 730630) grew from 3.49 million tonnes (€3.82 billion) in 2015 to 3.68 million tonnes (€4.36 billion) in 2025, representing volume growth of 5.2% and value growth of 14.2%. This reflects both increased output and a shift toward higher-value product segments. Production peaked in value terms around the 2021–2022 commodity boom before partially correcting.

Export propensity nearly doubled, while trade intensity rose moderately

The EU's export propensity—the share of domestic production exported to non-EU countries—rose from 10.6% in 2015 to 17.1% in 2025 (+60.9%). This is the most significant structural indicator in the dataset, suggesting that EU producers are increasingly oriented toward external markets. Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) also increased, from 25.0% to 28.5% (+14.0%), confirming that the EU's welded tube market has become more internationally integrated.

Net import reliance shifted from positive to near-zero, signalling improved self-sufficiency

The EU's net import reliance moved from +7.9% in 2015 to −1.1% in 2025, a reversal of 113.2%. While the EU still ran a modest trade deficit in value terms (€66 million in 2025, compared to €44 million in 2015), this deficit is negligible relative to the size of domestic production (€4.36 billion). The shift indicates that the EU has moved from being a mild net importer to approximate trade balance, with export revenues increasingly offsetting import expenditures.

Italy dominates EU specialisation, while large economies like Germany are losing ground

Among EU member states, Italy stands out as the most specialised producer and exporter of CN 730630, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.64 and an RCA of 4.56 in 2025. Italy's exports grew from €135 million to €216 million (+59.8%), and it accounts for 36.5% of EU production in this category. Germany, by contrast, saw its exports decline from €104 million to €78 million (−24.4%), reflecting a loss of competitiveness that may be linked to higher energy costs and structural shifts in the German steel sector. Other notable exporters include Spain (+85.7%), the Netherlands (+64.8%), and Ireland (+155.4%).

Conclusion

The EU market for welded steel tubes (CN 730630) has undergone a quiet but significant transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. Three interconnected trends stand out:

1. Value upgrading: EU producers have repositioned toward higher-value segments—precision tubes, larger-diameter products, and specialised applications—commanding a growing price premium over imports. Export prices rose 62% while import prices barely moved, widening the value gap to over €1,100/t by 2025.

2. Geographic reorientation: The import supply base has shifted decisively. Switzerland, once the EU's top import source, saw its share collapse by 92%, while Türkiye and India consolidated their dominance, together accounting for roughly two-thirds of import value. This rising concentration (HHI up 19%) creates new supply-chain dependencies that merit monitoring.

3. Improved structural autonomy: Rising production, surging export propensity (from 10.6% to 17.1%), and net import reliance moving from +8% to near zero all point to a more self-sufficient and export-competitive EU welded tube sector—led overwhelmingly by Italy, with Germany's role in decline.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of this trajectory will depend on EU energy costs, the effectiveness of trade defence instruments, and the ability of producers to maintain their premium positioning in an increasingly competitive global market.