Market evolution: Unused postage stamps and banknotes (CN 4907) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union (EU) in the specific product category CN 4907, which encompasses unused postage stamps, banknotes, cheque forms, and similar security documents, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on the EU's trade with non-EU countries, examining changes in value, quantity, and pricing. The data reveals a market characterized by strong export growth, significant shifts in key trade partners, and notable episodes of volatility and price shocks.

1. Strong export growth and an expanding trade surplus

The EU's trade in CN 4907 products with the rest of the world has grown substantially in value over the decade, primarily driven by a surge in exports. The trade balance has widened significantly, underscoring the EU's strengthening position as a net exporter in this niche market.

1.1. Export value more than doubled, outpacing import growth

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports increased by 28.0%, rising from €366 million to €469 million. In contrast, import values grew by 31.7% over the same period but from a much smaller base, increasing from €40 million to €53 million. This disparity in scale and growth rates has led to a substantial and increasing trade surplus for the EU, which reached €416 million in 2025.

Source: General Overview

1.2. Export quantity remained stable while prices rose sharply

The quantity of exports (measured in tonnes) saw only a modest increase of 2.1% over the period. This indicates that the dramatic rise in export value was almost entirely driven by price increases. The average export price per tonne rose by 25.4%, from €41,291 in 2015 to €51,764 in 2025. This suggests the EU is exporting higher-value or more specialised documents, or that pricing power in this market has increased. Import prices, meanwhile, were more volatile but ended the period 11.5% lower than in 2015.

1.3. A stark divergence between leading EU member states

The export performance varied dramatically among EU member states. Malta and Germany emerged as the dominant exporters, while traditional players like Sweden, the Netherlands, and Ireland saw their export values collapse.

Source: Top Reporters by Value

2. A major reorientation of trade partnerships

The landscape of key trade partners for the EU has undergone a significant transformation. The EU's export profile has become more diversified across developing regions, while its import sources have consolidated, particularly around a single unspecified category.

2.1. Exports pivot towards new growth markets in Africa and Asia

The Philippines became the single largest destination for EU exports in 2025, with a value of €72.5 million, a staggering 561.7% increase from 2015. Other important growth markets include Ghana, Tanzania, and Sudan. In contrast, the UK's share of EU exports plummeted by 64.7%. The growing concentration of exports to these newer partners is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which, while still low, indicates a slight move away from perfect diversification.

Source: Top Partners by Value

2.2. Import sources concentrate on a single unspecified category and the United States

A notable feature of the EU's import data is the persistent and significant value attributed to "Countries and territories not specified for commercial or military reasons." This category consistently recorded an import value of nearly €19.7 million in several years, representing a major portion of total imports. Beyond this, the United States has solidified its position as the primary identifiable source of imports, with values growing by 55.2% to €15.2 million. Traditional suppliers like Malaysia and Morocco saw their import values collapse by 98.0% and 84.2%, respectively. This consolidation is mirrored in the import HHI value, which increased by 56.5%, indicating a more concentrated import market.

3. Significant price volatility and isolated supply shocks

The market for CN 4907 products exhibits considerable price volatility in bilateral trade flows, with several extreme price shock events detected, particularly affecting EU exports.

3.1. High price volatility characterises several key trade relationships

Price volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), is very high for several EU trade partners. On the export side, prices charged to India (CV 2.06) and Lebanon (CV 1.88) were exceptionally volatile. For imports, prices from Morocco (CV 1.94) and Ukraine (CV 1.87) were highly unstable. This volatility underscores the potentially niche, transaction-specific, and illiquid nature of this product category, where single large deals can swing average prices dramatically.

3.2. Extreme price shocks were concentrated in exports to developing economies

The analysis identified several supply shock events, all related to extreme price movements in EU exports. The most severe was a price shock to India in 2018, where the average price surged by an abnormal 1,905.7%, representing a 7,924.1% shift from the prior year's trend. Similar, though less extreme, price shocks were detected in exports to Egypt (2017) and Nigeria (2017). These shocks, which occurred in markets with lower value shares, could be linked to one-off, high-value consignments such as specialised security printing or emergency banknote supply.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 4907 products has evolved into a strongly export-oriented market with a widening surplus. Growth has been value-led rather than volume-led, pointing to a shift towards higher-value products or improved pricing. The most dramatic change has been the reorientation of export partnerships, with the rise of the Philippines and a consolidation around a few key African nations, while the role of traditional European partners like the UK and Sweden has diminished. The import side is notably influenced by a large, constant segment of unspecified origins. Finally, the market is prone to significant bilateral price volatility and occasional extreme price shocks, highlighting its specialised and potentially unpredictable nature. The EU's strengthened net export position, led by powerhouse exporters Malta and Germany, suggests a growing competitiveness in global markets for these critical security and fiscal documents.