Market evolution: Greeting cards and postcards (CN 4909) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's external trade in printed postcards and greeting cards (Customs Code 4909) from 2015 to 2025. The period encompasses significant shifts in trade patterns, volumes, and values, reflecting broader economic trends, the impact of digitalization, and a major geopolitical realignment with Brexit. The analysis is based solely on the provided data, which details EU trade with non-EU countries.

The EU's Shift from Net Exporter to Structural Importer

The period 2015-2025 reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade position, moving from a modest deficit to a significant and growing net import reliance.

Declining Export Volumes and Surging Unit Prices

EU exports of CN 4909 products underwent a dramatic restructuring. While export value declined by 31.2% overall, the quantity of goods exported plummeted by 87.4%. This indicates a near-complete withdrawal from high-volume, low-margin export segments. Concurrently, the average export price per tonne surged by 447.6%, from €4,522 in 2015 to €24,760 in 2025. This suggests EU producers have pivoted toward specialized, high-value, or customized products for niche international markets.

The Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade deficit for greeting cards widened substantially, from -€53.1 million in 2015 to -€94.9 million in 2025 (a 78.8% increase). This growth occurred despite a decline in import quantity (-14.0%), underscoring the rising average cost of imported goods (+29.9% per tonne) and the collapse of export volumes. The general overview shows the peak deficit occurred in 2020, likely reflecting pandemic-related disruptions.

The Brexit Effect and Reorientation of EU Trade

A key observable dynamic is the dramatic reconfiguration of trade flows with the United Kingdom, the EU's historical primary partner, following its departure from the Single Market.

Collapse of UK-Focused Trade Flows

The United Kingdom, the top destination for EU exports in 2015 (€49.9 million), fell to the second-largest in 2025 (€7.1 million), an 85.8% decrease. Similarly, imports from the UK rose by 33.9% in value but exhibited very high volatility (CV of 0.56). The most severe shock detected in the data was a price shock in EU exports to the UK centered in 2018 (abnormality score: 16.1), with unit values spiking by 1041.7%. This aligns with the period immediately following the Brexit referendum, suggesting anticipatory pricing and logistical shifts before formal exit.

Diversification Toward Switzerland and Emerging Markets

With the decline in UK trade, the EU diversified its export partners. Switzerland became the top export destination (€24.7 million in 2025, +58.9% from 2015), followed by Norway and Japan. The most explosive growth was seen in exports to Japan, which increased by 1218.5% to €11.9 million, indicating a successful penetration into a high-value Asian market. On the import side, China solidified its dominance, growing its share to €89.9 million (+54.3%), while Hong Kong's role collapsed (-96.9%). The top partners data shows the EU import market also saw rising contributions from Vietnam (+100.3%) and the Philippines (+159.5%).

Market Concentration and Intra-EU Specialization

The trade restructuring led to increased concentration in imports and a reshuffling of specialization among EU member states.

Rising Import Concentration, Diversified Exports

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose by 66.1%, from 2,690 in 2015 to 4,469 in 2025, indicating a significant increase in the concentration of import origins, heavily driven by China. In contrast, the HHI for exports fell by 36.8%, reflecting the shift from a dominant UK-focused pattern to a more diversified set of destinations like Switzerland, Japan, and the US. Concentration analysis confirms this dual trend.

Shifting Intra-EU Leadership

Among EU member states, traditional import hubs like Germany and the Netherlands saw their share decline or stagnate. Conversely, Ireland and Belgium dramatically increased their imports (by 110.9% and 142.1%, respectively), potentially serving as entry points for goods destined for the broader EU market. For exports, Germany and especially France (+279.7%) increased their share, while the Netherlands' role diminished (-86.6%). Specialization data for 2025 highlights Slovakia, France, and the Netherlands as having the strongest comparative advantage in this sector, while Ireland and Finland are the least specialized. This suggests a geographical shift in production and trade intermediary functions within the bloc. EU member specialization provides a detailed breakdown.

Conclusion

The EU market for greeting cards and postcards from 2015 to 2025 is characterized by three major transformations: a strategic retreat from high-volume exports to focus on higher-value segments; a profound reorientation of trade flows away from the United Kingdom in the wake of Brexit; and a corresponding concentration of imports around China alongside a diversification of export destinations to markets like Japan and Switzerland. These trends point to a mature market adapting to digital competition and geopolitical change, where EU producers compete increasingly on quality and specialization rather than volume, while the market grows more dependent on global supply chains for mainstream products.