Market evolution: Printed calendars (CN 4910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in printed calendars (CN code 4910) with non-EU countries over the period 2015-2025. The analysis reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade profile for this product, characterized by a shift from a balanced trade position to a significant structural deficit. This shift is driven by contrasting trends in import and export volumes and values, changing geographic trade patterns, and emerging market volatility.

1. The EU Becomes a Net Importer: A Structural Trade Deficit Emerges

The most significant trend over the decade is the EU's transition from a trade surplus to a substantial and growing deficit. While imports grew steadily, exports contracted sharply in volume, leading to a fundamental change in the market balance.

The Diverging Paths of Import Growth and Export Contraction

EU imports of printed calendars grew both in value (+32.1%) and quantity (+25.2%) between 2015 and 2025. In contrast, EU exports declined dramatically in volume, falling by 46.1%. Although export values decreased by a lesser 16.8% due to a 54.5% increase in average export prices, the sheer drop in quantity points to a significant reduction in the EU's production or competitive position for this product category. The combined effect was the transformation of a modest trade surplus of €2.6 million in 2015 into a deficit of €19.8 million by 2025.

A Shift in Price Dynamics Reflects Market Segmentation

The price trends further illustrate this structural shift. The average import price remained relatively stable (increasing only 5.5%), suggesting competitive sourcing. Meanwhile, the average export price increased markedly (+54.5%). This divergence indicates that the EU may be focusing on higher-value or niche calendar products for export, while sourcing standard, high-volume products from abroad. The data suggests a potential segmentation of the market, with the EU losing its foothold in the mass-market segment.

2. Geographic Concentration and Shifting Trade Partnerships

The geographic patterns of EU calendar trade have evolved, with increased concentration in imports and volatile but geographically focused exports.

Import Concentration Intensifies, Led by China

EU import sources have become more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value increased by 59.5%, indicating greater reliance on a smaller group of partners. China is the dominant supplier, and its share grew substantially, with import values rising by 69.9% to nearly €39.1 million. Other notable suppliers include Türkiye (+80.8%) and South Korea (+42.1%). A key shift is the reduced role of the United Kingdom, whose exports to the EU fell by 55.0%, likely reflecting the post-Brexit trade environment.

EU Exports Are Geographically Dispersed but Volatile

EU exports are distributed among several key partners, with Switzerland and the United Kingdom being the largest markets, though both saw declines (Switzerland -12.8%, UK -19.0%). Norway (+92.9%) and Sweden (for EU exporters) stood out as growth markets. However, volatility is a major feature; the coefficient of variation is very high for exports to Hong Kong (1.39) and the Russian Federation (0.69). The near-total collapse of exports to Russia (-90.9%) is particularly stark, a trend likely accelerated by geopolitical events following 2022.

3. Emerging Volatility and Anomalous Price Shocks

The period under review, particularly the years surrounding and following 2022, was marked by significant price volatility and specific trade shocks affecting both imports and exports.

Widespread Export Volatility and the Impact of Sanctions

Several key EU export partners exhibited high trade volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation), notably for volume flows to Hong Kong and the United States. The most dramatic shock, however, was the collapse of the Russian market, which saw exports fall from €1.74 million in 2015 to just €0.16 million in 2025. This represents a fundamental loss of a major historical market for EU producers.

Specific Import Price Anomalies Linked to Global Disruptions

The volatility analysis identified specific price shocks. A notable shock occurred in EU imports from India in 2022, with an abnormal price increase of 194.6%. While this had a limited impact on overall trade value (4.2% share), it points to acute disruptions in specific supply chains, potentially related to post-pandemic logistics or material cost pressures during that period.

Conclusion

The EU's market for printed calendars (CN 4910) underwent a profound restructuring between 2015 and 2025. The era of balanced trade has ended, replaced by a persistent deficit driven by robust import growth and a severe contraction in export volumes. This suggests a relocation of production capacity outside the EU. The import market is now heavily concentrated on China, while export markets have become more volatile, with the effective closure of the Russian market being a key factor. While EU exporters have managed to increase the unit value of their shipments, indicating a possible move upmarket, this has not been sufficient to offset the decline in quantity. The period was further characterized by specific supply chain shocks and high volatility, reflecting broader global economic and geopolitical turbulence. The data points to a structurally altered competitive landscape where the EU is a net consumer rather than a net producer in the global calendar trade.