Market evolution: Printed maps and atlases (CN 4905) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in printed maps, atlases, and related cartographic products (CN 4905) over the period 2015–2025. The decade under review has been one of profound structural contraction: both import and export values declined by roughly 60–80%, physical volumes shrank dramatically, and the longstanding EU trade deficit in this category nearly vanished. The analysis that follows traces these dynamics across three dimensions — the scale and composition of the contraction, the geographic reorientation of trade flows following Brexit and geopolitical disruptions, and the divergence between volume and price trends that points to an ongoing transformation of the product mix.

I. A decade of structural contraction in a digitalising world

The most striking feature of EU trade in printed maps and atlases over the past decade is its sheer magnitude of decline. Total import values fell from €54.4 million in 2015 to €11.6 million in 2025 (−78.7%), while export values dropped from €34.5 million to €13.0 million (−62.3%). In physical terms, the contraction was even more severe: import volumes declined from 2,330 to 829 tonnes (−64.4%) and export volumes collapsed from 2,264 to just 483 tonnes (−78.7%). The period from 2015 to 2025 thus represents a near-halving of the market by any measure.

Physical volumes have collapsed while prices diverge

Despite the common narrative of digital substitution — GPS navigation, smartphone mapping applications, and online atlases have progressively reduced demand for physical cartographic products — the price data tells a more nuanced story. Export unit values actually increased by 76.5%, from €15,241 per tonne in 2015 to €26,894 per tonne in 2025, suggesting that the EU has retained or expanded its position in higher-value, specialist cartographic segments even as bulk production declined. By contrast, import unit values fell by 40.2%, from €23,347 to €13,955 per tonne, indicating that incoming shipments have shifted toward lower-cost origins.

This price divergence is consistent with a market polarisation: commodity-grade maps and standard atlases increasingly face substitution from digital alternatives, while specialist, high-quality, or niche cartographic products — such as collector's editions, premium wall maps, or professional hydrographic charts — continue to command higher prices. The product segment data for 2022–2025 confirms this interpretation: the sub-category 490590 (maps not in book form) consistently achieved export prices above €21,000 per tonne, reaching €33,649 per tonne in 2025 — nearly triple the import price for the same sub-category (€14,829/t).

The product mix reveals a dominance of non-book-format maps

Within the CN 4905 heading, two sub-categories are reported: 490520 (maps printed and in book form) and 490590 (other printed maps, including wall maps, topographical plans, and charts). The segment breakdown for 2022–2025 shows that sub-category 490590 overwhelmingly dominates both trade flows. In 2025, 490590 accounted for 86% of import value (€10.2 million out of €11.6 million) and 88% of export value (€11.4 million out of €13.0 million). The book-form sub-category (490520), while still present, is structurally marginal, with import values of €1.4 million and export values of €1.6 million in 2025.

In volume terms, the picture is similar: 490590 accounted for 83% of import tonnage (689 out of 829 tonnes) and 70% of export tonnage (338 out of 483 tonnes) in 2025. Notably, export volumes for 490590 fell from 548 tonnes in 2022 to 338 tonnes in 2025 (−38%), while the sub-category's export price rose from €21,645 to €33,649 per tonne (+55%), reinforcing the premiumisation dynamic observed at the aggregate level.

Member-state contributions have contracted across the board

The contraction was not limited to any single EU economy. Among the top EU reporting countries for imports, every major member state recorded declines:

France stands out as the only major importer to have maintained its position, with a modest 7.4% increase. On the export side, declines were similarly widespread:

France again proved the most resilient exporter, losing only 17.0% of its export value over the decade and emerging as the EU's largest single exporter of printed maps in 2025 at €3.6 million. The specialisation data for 2025 confirms that Spain (RSCA 0.66, RCA 4.88), Italy (RSCA 0.52, RCA 3.16), and Austria (RSCA 0.36, RCA 2.12) remain the most specialised EU producers of this product category, while newer member states in Central and Eastern Europe (Estonia, Bulgaria, Hungary) show negligible specialisation.

II. Brexit, geopolitics, and the reconfiguration of trade partnerships

The geographic composition of EU trade in printed maps underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The single most consequential event was the United Kingdom's departure from the EU, which disrupted what had been the bloc's dominant bilateral relationship in this product category. A secondary but significant dynamic was the impact of EU sanctions on Russia following 2022, which virtually eliminated trade with a previously important partner.

The UK was the EU's overwhelming partner — until Brexit intervened

In 2015, the United Kingdom dominated EU external trade in printed maps. On the import side, the UK supplied €41.3 million worth of printed maps to the EU — representing approximately 76% of all extra-EU imports and dwarfing all other suppliers combined. On the export side, the UK received €10.4 million in EU exports, making it the largest single destination.

By 2025, this picture had changed dramatically:

The collapse of UK-to-EU trade was far steeper (−93.4%) than the overall market decline (−78.7%), indicating that Brexit had a disproportionate impact. While some of this decline may reflect pre-Brexit stockpiling or transitional disruptions, the persistence of the gap through 2025 suggests a structural reorientation. The UK's once-dominant position as a printing and publishing hub for EU markets has clearly been eroded by the new customs and regulatory barriers.

Import concentration fell sharply as suppliers diversified

The departure of the UK as a dominant supplier triggered a significant diversification of EU import sources. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 5,920 in 2015 — indicative of a highly concentrated market — to 1,733 in 2025, a decline of 70.7%. This shift from near-monopoly to a more competitive, multi-supplier market is one of the most significant structural changes observable in the data.

Several suppliers gained ground as the UK receded:

Taiwan's emergence as a significant supplier (+498.3%) is noteworthy, potentially reflecting its established printing industry capacity. India also more than doubled its exports to the EU, rising from €0.5 million to €1.1 million. However, it is important to note that China, the second-largest supplier, also declined (−38.2%), suggesting that the overall market contraction affected even non-European suppliers.

Sanctions eliminated Russia as an export destination

The EU's export relationship with Russia collapsed almost entirely between 2015 and 2025. Export values fell from €702,535 to just €1,385 — a decline of 99.8%. While the absolute values involved are modest compared to the UK trade, this decline is consistent with the EU sanctions regime imposed in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A price shock in EU exports to Russia was detected in 2022, with an abnormality score of 11.2 and a price shift of +160.8%, likely reflecting the last transactions before the full impact of sanctions took hold.

Export concentration remained relatively stable despite partner shifts

Unlike the dramatic diversification of imports, export concentration by value remained broadly stable, with the HHI moving from 1,211 to 1,297 (+7.1%). This suggests that while the UK lost ground as an export destination, the EU's remaining export relationships — particularly with Switzerland, the United States, and Norway — proved more durable. Switzerland, the second-largest export destination, saw only an 11.3% decline (from €2.5 million to €2.2 million), while US-bound exports fell by 22.0% (from €3.5 million to €2.8 million). The relative resilience of these relationships, compared to the collapse of UK-bound trade, underscores the extent to which Brexit specifically disrupted the UK–EU cartographic trade corridor.

III. Price shocks, volatility, and the emerging premium segment

Behind the headline decline in aggregate volumes and values lies a more complex story of price dynamics, bilateral volatility, and sectoral specialisation. While the overall market contracted, certain segments and bilateral relationships experienced significant price movements that reveal the evolving nature of demand for printed cartographic products.

Export prices have surged even as volumes evaporated

The most paradoxical feature of the overall trade data is the simultaneous collapse of export volumes and rise of export prices. EU export tonnage fell by 78.7% between 2015 and 2025, yet the average price per tonne rose by 76.5% — from €15,241 to €26,894. This pattern is characteristic of a market in which lower-value, commodity-grade products are being progressively substituted by digital alternatives, while the remaining physical trade gravitates toward premium, specialist, or collector-oriented products.

The sub-category data for 490590 (non-book-format maps) confirms this trend: the export price for this sub-category rose from €21,645/t in 2022 to €33,649/t in 2025, an increase of 55% in just three years. By contrast, the import price for the same sub-category remained at €14,829/t in 2025 — less than half the export price. This implies that the EU's exports in this segment are disproportionately high-value items, while its imports are more commoditised.

Price shocks have punctuated bilateral relationships

The volatility analysis identified several significant price shocks in bilateral trade flows:

The Indian import price shock in 2022 (abnormality 20.4, shift +31.0%) is the most statistically significant event detected. Given India's growing role as an EU supplier (from €0.5 million to €1.1 million over the decade), this may reflect either a shift toward higher-quality Indian exports or supply-side cost pressures. The Japanese export price shock of 2017 (+394.1%) is striking in its magnitude, although it represents a relatively small share of total export value (3.6%). This could reflect a single high-value transaction or a shift in the product mix of EU exports to Japan. The Russian shock in 2022 (+160.8%) is more easily explained by the disruption of the sanctions period, when remaining trade likely involved atypical or emergency transactions.

Bilateral volatility varies widely across partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) in bilateral trade flows reveals marked differences in the stability of various partnerships. Some of the most volatile relationships include:

The extremely high CV for Japan's imports from the EU (3.08) suggests that this is an erratic, possibly project-based relationship. The UK's CV of 0.66 for both imports and exports is moderate but masks the secular decline described above — the coefficient of variation captures year-to-year fluctuation but does not distinguish between random noise and structural trend. By contrast, Switzerland and China, with lower CVs, represent more predictable, stable trading relationships for the EU.

The trade deficit has nearly closed

One of the most consequential macro-level shifts is the evolution of the EU trade balance. In 2015, the EU ran a deficit of €19.9 million in printed maps — it imported nearly €54.4 million while exporting only €34.5 million. By 2025, this deficit had effectively disappeared, with the balance swinging to a small surplus of €1.4 million. This +107.1% improvement in the trade balance is largely an artefact of the asymmetric decline: imports fell by 78.7% while exports fell by 62.3%. Since the pre-existing deficit was overwhelmingly driven by imports from the UK, and UK imports fell far more steeply than overall exports, the trade balance naturally improved.

Conclusion

The EU trade in printed maps and atlases (CN 4905) has undergone a decade of profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The overarching narrative is one of structural contraction: physical volumes have declined by 65–79%, and trade values have fallen by 62–79%, reflecting the inexorable displacement of printed cartographic products by digital alternatives. Yet this headline decline conceals several important dynamics. Export prices have surged by 76.5%, indicating that the EU's remaining trade has pivoted toward a premium, specialist segment — a classic pattern of market polarisation under digital disruption. The UK's departure from the EU single market has been the single most consequential geographic event, eliminating what was once the dominant bilateral trade relationship and triggering a significant diversification of import sources. The simultaneous near-elimination of Russia as an export destination following EU sanctions in 2022 has further reshaped the trade map. Looking forward, the data suggests that the EU's role in global printed cartographic trade is likely to continue contracting in volume but may sustain higher unit values, with France, Italy, and Spain emerging as the bloc's most specialised and resilient players in an increasingly niche market.