Market evolution: Sheet music (CN 4904) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of European Union external trade in printed and manuscript music (customs code 4904) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on trade value (in EUR), physical quantity (in tonnes), and unit prices, alongside partner concentration and volatility metrics. While the EU has maintained a structural trade surplus in this product category throughout the period, the underlying dynamics reveal significant shifts: a declining volume in exports offset by rising unit values, a profound reshaping of trade geography following Brexit, and growing exposure to Asian markets. The full dashboard overview provides additional context for the figures discussed below.
1. Value stability masks a structural rebalancing between volume and price
1.1 EU exports rose in value but contracted sharply in volume
Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of sheet music grew modestly in value from €16.9 million to €17.3 million (+2.5%). However, this apparent stability conceals a dramatic decline in physical volume: exported quantities fell from 580 tonnes to 448 tonnes (−22.7%). This divergence is explained by a sustained increase in unit export prices, which rose from €29,121 per tonne to €38,591 per tonne (+32.5%). The EU appears to be exporting fewer tonnes of sheet music, but at significantly higher average prices, suggesting a shift toward higher-value or niche products.
1.2 EU imports remained flat in value but grew in volume
EU imports followed a contrasting pattern. Import values remained essentially stable, declining marginally from €13.0 million to €12.9 million (−0.8%). Yet import volumes actually increased, rising from 440 tonnes to 472 tonnes (+7.2%). Average import prices fell from €29,503 to €27,309 per tonne (−7.4%), indicating that the EU is sourcing more physical product from abroad at lower unit costs.
1.3 The trade balance remained positive but volatile
The EU maintained a trade surplus in sheet music throughout most of the period, growing from €3.9 million in 2015 to €4.4 million in 2025 (+13.6%). However, the balance dipped into deficit in at least one year (minimum: −€2.5 million), likely reflecting the sharp decline in exports to the United Kingdom after Brexit. The general trend toward a strengthening surplus owes more to the rising value of exports than to any import compression.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 16.9 | 17.3 | +2.5% |
| Export volume (t) | 580 | 448 | −22.7% |
| Export price (€/t) | 29,121 | 38,591 | +32.5% |
| Import value (€M) | 13.0 | 12.9 | −0.8% |
| Import volume (t) | 440 | 472 | +7.2% |
| Import price (€/t) | 29,503 | 27,309 | −7.4% |
| Trade balance (€M) | 3.9 | 4.4 | +13.6% |
2. Brexit reshaped the EU's trade geography, with Asia rising in importance
2.1 The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner but with reduced weight
The United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest trading partner in sheet music throughout the period. UK imports from the EU reached a peak of €14.4 million before falling to just €5.0 million by 2025 (−36.4% overall). On the export side, the UK remained the EU's top import source at €5.0 million in 2025, though this represented a sharp decline from a peak of €7.9 million. The coefficient of variation for UK trade flows is among the highest (0.42 for imports, 0.35 for exports), confirming the disruptive impact of Brexit and post-Brexit regulatory friction on what was once a deeply integrated market.
2.2 The United States emerged as the leading non-EU import source
While the US had been a significant import source throughout the period, its share grew substantially: imports from the US rose from €3.5 million to €5.6 million (+59.2%), making it the EU's top non-EU import source by 2025. On the export side, however, EU shipments to the US declined from €5.4 million to €4.2 million (−21.1%). A notable price shock was detected in 2018, when US-bound export prices surged by +54.1%, likely reflecting currency movements or tariff-related adjustments.
2.3 Asian markets grew rapidly as EU export destinations
Several Asian markets expanded their import of EU sheet music over the decade:
| Partner | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 111,738 | 571,985 | +411.9% |
| Korea, Republic of | 319,417 | 645,395 | +102.1% |
| Hong Kong | 114,260 | 130,249 | +14.0% |
| Japan (imports from EU) | — | — | −17.9% |
China stands out: EU exports to China grew more than fivefold, albeit from a small base. South Korea doubled its purchases. Japan, by contrast, saw a decline. On the import side, Japan's shipments to the EU grew from €136,000 to €466,000 (+241.2%), while China's fell (−53.8%). These divergent trends point to a gradual reorientation of trade flows toward East Asia, driven by growing cultural interest in Western classical music traditions and, on the import side, Japan's established position as a centre for music publishing.
3. Intra-EU trade concentration shifted, with the Netherlands emerging as a hub
3.1 Germany remained the EU's largest exporter but lost ground
Germany was the dominant EU member state in sheet music exports throughout the period, accounting for over €12.9 million in 2015 and falling to €10.0 million in 2025 (−22.2%). In imports, Germany similarly declined sharply, from €7.0 million to €3.3 million (−52.5%). Despite this contraction, Germany retained the highest share of EU-level exports and imports, reflecting its established position as a centre for music publishing and distribution.
3.2 The Netherlands emerged as a major re-export and logistics hub
The Netherlands saw extraordinary growth in both directions. Exports surged from €1.6 million to €5.4 million (+229.0%), and imports grew from €0.8 million to €2.6 million (+221.2%). The Netherlands now has the highest revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) among EU members at 0.63, with an RCA of 4.40, indicating a strong specialisation in sheet music trade well beyond what its overall trade share would predict. This likely reflects the Netherlands' role as a logistics and distribution hub, particularly for goods destined for non-EU markets.
3.3 Several Southern and Eastern European exporters declined
Italy experienced a near-total collapse in exports, falling from €520,000 to just €37,000 (−92.9%). Spain's imports dropped from €1.4 million to €150,000 (−89.0%). Poland and Sweden also saw significant contractions. These declines suggest a consolidation of sheet music trade in a smaller number of Northern European hubs, possibly driven by the digitisation of music publishing and the concentration of physical production and logistics infrastructure.
3.4 Trade became slightly less concentrated over the period
Both import and export concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), declined over the period. Import HHI fell from 4,466 to 3,596 (−19.5%), while export HHI decreased from 2,873 to 2,508 (−12.7%). This indicates a modest diversification of trade partners and a reduction in the dominance of any single country. The decline in export concentration volume HHI (−28.4%) was sharper than the value-based measure, suggesting that smaller partners are contributing proportionally more in physical terms.
| Concentration (HHI) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports (by value) | 4,466 | 3,596 | −19.5% |
| Imports (by volume) | 3,362 | 3,737 | +11.1% |
| Exports (by value) | 2,873 | 2,508 | −12.7% |
| Exports (by volume) | 2,933 | 2,100 | −28.4% |
Concentration and specialisation data
Conclusion
The EU's trade in printed and manuscript music (CN 4904) between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of resilience through structural change. While headline values remained broadly stable, the underlying dynamics reveal a market undergoing significant transformation. Export volumes declined by nearly a quarter, offset by a one-third rise in unit prices, suggesting a move toward higher-value products or niche editions. Import volumes grew modestly while prices fell, indicating greater price competition from non-EU suppliers.
The most consequential shift was geographic. Brexit dramatically reduced the weight of the United Kingdom—the EU's largest single partner—in both import and export flows. Meanwhile, Asian markets, particularly China and South Korea, emerged as growing destinations for EU sheet music, reflecting broader trends in the globalisation of Western musical culture. Within the EU, trade concentrated further in Northern European hubs, with the Netherlands rising to prominence as a logistics and distribution centre, while traditional exporters in Southern and Eastern Europe saw sharp declines.
The volatility analysis confirms that the UK market remains the most volatile partner, though price shocks in US-bound exports (2018) and Swiss trade also stand out. Overall, the EU has maintained its trade surplus and adapted to a post-Brexit landscape by diversifying its partner base and increasingly relying on higher-value exports. Whether this trajectory is sustainable in an era of accelerating digital music consumption remains an open question for the coming decade.