Market evolution: Unrefined cane sugar (CN 170113) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in raw cane sugar classified under customs code CN 170113 over the period 2015–2025. The product covers raw cane sugar in solid form, with a sucrose content between 69° and 93°, obtained without centrifugation. It encompasses two subcategories: raw cane sugar for refining (CN 17011310) and raw cane sugar for other uses (CN 17011390).

Over the decade, the EU's import profile for this product has undergone a profound structural transformation. Total import volume fell by over three-quarters, while import prices more than tripled. Meanwhile, EU exports of this sugar remained modest but stable in volume, and domestic production held broadly steady. The data reveals a market shaped by the political redefinition of EU borders following Brexit, a dramatic shift in sourcing geography, and a market that has become simultaneously less import-reliant and more exposed to price risk.

1. A dramatic contraction in import volumes accompanied by soaring unit values

The most striking feature of the period is the simultaneous collapse in import quantity and the sharp rise in unit prices. This dual dynamic signals a fundamental reconfiguration of the EU's sourcing strategy for raw cane sugar.

Import volumes fell by more than three-quarters

EU imports of CN 170113 from non-EU countries dropped from 42,173 tonnes in 2015 to 9,881 tonnes in 2025, representing a decline of 76.6%. Despite this volume contraction, import value decreased by only 27.7% (from €19.7 million to €14.3 million), because unit prices surged by 208.5% over the same period — rising from €468 per tonne to €1,443 per tonne.

The price increase is partly a compositional effect. As the subcategory breakdown by product segment shows, imports of raw cane sugar for refining (CN 17011310) — which had a unit price of €275/t in 2015 — shrank from 26,399 tonnes to just 8 tonnes. The remaining imports are almost entirely CN 17011390 (sugar not destined for refining), whose unit price was €790/t in 2015 and reached €1,443/t by 2025. The disappearance of the lower-priced refining-grade sugar mechanically inflated the aggregate price.

EU domestic production remained broadly stable while prices rose

EU domestic production of raw cane sugar fluctuated between 1.5 and 2.4 billion kilograms over the period, ending at approximately 1.8 billion kg in 2025 (a modest +3.1% increase from 2015). However, the value of that production rose by 59.0%, from €771 million to €1.23 billion — reflecting broadly higher sugar market prices across the decade.

The EU's net import reliance declined

Consistent with the volume contraction, the net import reliance for CN 170113 fell from 34.3% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2025. This metric reached a peak of 56.6% at its highest point during the period and has been on a declining trajectory, suggesting that the EU's domestic production capacity has become relatively more important for meeting consumption needs, or that total sugar consumption patterns have shifted.

2. Brexit restructured supplier geography, with Latin America replacing the United Kingdom

The most dramatic supply-side story is the collapse in trade with the United Kingdom and the corresponding rise of Latin American and other tropical suppliers. This shift is inseparable from the UK's exit from the EU's customs territory.

The United Kingdom's near-total disappearance as a partner

In 2015, the UK was the EU's largest import partner for CN 170113, accounting for €15.3 million — more than three-quarters of total imports by value. By 2025, UK-origin imports had fallen to just €77,548 (−99.5%). This collapse is consistent with the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union on 1 January 2021; UK-sourced cane sugar was previously traded within the EU but is now counted as an external trade flow with different tariff and quota arrangements.

The volatility of UK trade flows is exceptionally high, with a coefficient of variation of 2.18 for imports — the highest among all partners — reflecting this structural break rather than ordinary market fluctuation. A price shock of exceptional magnitude was detected in 2023, with an abnormality score of 109.4 and a price shift of +245.7%, coinciding with the full post-Brexit adjustment of UK trade.

Colombia, Ecuador, and El Salvador surged as suppliers

Filling the void left by the UK, several Latin American countries dramatically increased their exports to the EU:

Colombia's rise is particularly notable: by 2025 it had become the EU's single largest import partner by value, overtaking all others. Brazil, by contrast, saw its exports to the EU decline from €1.07 million to €277,000 (−74.2%), suggesting a loss of competitiveness or a redirection of Brazilian cane sugar toward other markets.

Import concentration decreased, indicating supplier diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell from 6,105 in 2015 to 3,044 in 2025 (−50.1%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered a concentrated market, so the EU's import market remains moderately concentrated, but the halving of the index indicates a significant diversification away from the single-dominant-supplier pattern that existed when the UK accounted for over three-quarters of trade.

On the export side, the EU's customer base also diversified, with the HHI falling from 2,414 to 1,019 (−57.8%). The UK was also the EU's largest export destination in 2015 (€264,351), falling to €65,042 by 2025 (−75.4%). Switzerland remained a stable market, while Libya saw a decline.

3. Intra-EU trade reshuffled as member states adapted to the new supply landscape

The external trade transformation had pronounced effects on which EU member states handled imports and exports, reflecting both the geographic reorientation of supply chains and the varying degrees of adaptation across the bloc.

Spain and Romania emerged and collapsed as import gateways

Among EU reporters, the most dramatic shifts occurred in:

Spain's explosive growth as an importer (+1,225.7%) is consistent with its geographic proximity to Latin America and its established port infrastructure for receiving cane sugar shipments from the Atlantic basin. Romania's near-total withdrawal from imports (−99.8%) and the Netherlands' sharp decline (−92.5%) suggest that these countries previously served as entry points for sugar that was subsequently redistributed internally — with the UK-bound flow being a major component of that redistribution.

EU sugar specialisation varies widely across member states

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals sharp disparities among member states. Greece (RSCA: +0.56), the Netherlands (+0.47), and Portugal (+0.42) show positive revealed comparative advantage, while Hungary (RSCA: −1.00), Sweden (−1.00), and Denmark (−0.99) are essentially absent from this product's trade. This pattern reflects the geography of sugar beet production within the EU: countries with significant domestic beet sugar industries have less need to import raw cane sugar, while southern and coastal member states are more involved in cane sugar trade.

Export specialisation is concentrated in a handful of member states

On the export side, the Netherlands (€193,506), Germany (€223,709), Italy (€99,003), and Spain (€88,267) were the leading exporters in 2025. France and Belgium showed the strongest growth trajectories, with French exports increasing by 997.1% and Belgian exports by 318.7% over the period — though both started from very low bases. The EU's export propensity for CN 170113 fell from 1.1% to 0.7% (−30.0%), confirming that this is primarily a product the EU imports rather than exports.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in raw cane sugar (CN 170113) over 2015–2025 is a story of structural reorientation driven primarily by the United Kingdom's departure from the EU customs territory. The UK's near-complete disappearance from trade statistics — both as a source of imports and as an export destination — is the single most consequential dynamic in the data. This political shock catalysed a broader geographic diversification of supply, with Colombia, Ecuador, and El Salvador emerging as the new principal suppliers from Latin America.

The net result is an EU market that is less import-reliant (28.6% vs. 34.3% a decade ago), more diversified in its supplier base (HHI halved), but also one where import volumes have contracted dramatically and unit prices have more than tripled. Whether the price increase reflects genuine market tightening, a compositional shift away from lower-value refining sugar, or broader global sugar price inflation remains a question for further investigation. What the data makes clear is that the EU's relationship with raw cane sugar from outside its borders has been fundamentally redrawn over this period.